Regional Differentials in Unemployment Rates: The Economic Causes

Abstract. Recent studies on the causes that bring about the increase in unemployment rates of the Mezzogiorno area and Italy are mainly based upon demographic and social causes. The aim of this study is to verify if they can be also influenced by economic factors. Through a dynamic model with partial adaptive hypothesis, some ways by which demand affects the differences of regional unemployment rates has been tested. In this respect it has been considered whether variations in economic activity can lead to different growth rates of regional production owing to the different industrial structures; whether the employers are influenced by local factors in varying the occupation when the production increases, and finally in which way the regional unemployment rate depends on the excess of desired, over effective, labour demand. Data base are from 1959 to 1976, and the unemployment rate is referred only to unemployed workers that is the better proxy of the unemployment connected with the economic cycle. The results show a slight reactiveness to demand, both in industrial labour demand and supply in the Mezzogiorno.     

Labour Market and Decentralized Decision-making: An Institutional Approach

The persistent failure in the labour market is due to uncertainty and asymmetric information, and relies on a reconsideration of the bargaining process. This process is not generated by individual action but rather by the behaviour of social groups and institutions in which State intervention can immprove the efficiency in matching demand and supply. In this framework we will discuss the ways by which institutional decentralization can be implemented in a labour market characterized by deep regional differences and by long-term unemployment persistence as in Italy. The main conclusion is that this policy option better fits the active labour policies. In fact the actual aim of such supply-side policies is to reduce the regional and skill mismatches and therefore it needs a substantial involvement of local public agencies.     

Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy

Abstract. This paper analyses whether active labour market policies (ALMPs) have differing effects on unemployment and employment dynamics according to the particular region in which they are implemented. To this end, it analyses alternative theoretical and econometric models thought to capture the possible effects of active labour market policies on labour force dynamics. The econometric methodologies implemented are the generalized method of moment (GMM) and the panel vector autoregression (P‐VAR). The evidence yielded by the GMM models suggests that the effects of different ALMPs on unemployment are dissimilar across the Italian regions. It follows that some active programmes are likely to have a greater effect in the South than in the North. The results of the P‐VAR models estimated are synthesized by impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition. The impulse response analysis suggests that an increase in total ALMP gives rise to: (i) a decrease in the unemployment rate; and (ii) a significant increase in labour force participation. More interestingly, the results obtained from the error variance decomposition analysis show that unemployment movements are not driven by shocks in the ALMPs and that, especially in the northern regions, atypical contracts shocks account for a substantial portion of unemployment dynamics.     

Being NEET in Europe Before and After the Economic Crisis: An Analysis of the Micro and Macro Determinants

The right to adequate minimum income protection is one of the key principles included in the European Pillar of Social Rights (EPSR). The EPSR takes a right-based and normative approach, aiming specifically at fulfilling people’s essential needs, not only by guaranteeing sufficiently high income levels, but also by promoting labour market inclusion and access to affordable goods and services of good quality. This paper takes the EPSR as a starting point to propose a needs-based indicator that assesses the adequacy of minimum income protection including these three dimensions in a comprehensive way. We argue that Reference Budgets (RBs), priced baskets of goods and services that represent an adequate living standard, are well-suited to construct such an indicator. To illustrate this empirically, we use RBs for adequate social participation in Belgium which have been constructed for the first time in 2008 and have been regularly updated since then. Through a combination of hypothetical household simulations of essential out-of-pocket costs and designated tax-benefits for families living on different minimum income schemes, we are able to assess the adequacy of minimum income protection for a range of household types over the period 2008–2017. The paper shows that, the proposed indicator is a useful policy tool for both ex-ante and ex-post evaluations of the adequacy of social policy measures in light of the social protection and inclusion rights included in the Pillar.