Sign Restrictions,Structural Vector Autoregressions,and Useful Prior Information

This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market.     

Serious Games und ihre Anwendung im E‑Coaching

Compared to Internet and mobile communications, computer and video games are little used for psychotherapy, (psychosocial) counseling or coaching. This also applies to Serious Games, i.?e. interactive computer games that train cognitive or behavioral skills in a digital learning environment. Avatar-based coaching can be relevant for the coaching practice which includes design features and functional principles of Serious Games and whose example can be used to derive usage potential and risks for both coachs and clients.     

Awareness Promotion About Excessive Gambling Among Video Lottery Retailers

This paper describes and evaluates “As luck would have it,” an awareness program completed by retailers in Quebec Province. This program, which is presented as a two-hour awareness promotion workshop, aimed to inform retailers about excessive gambling. More specifically, it provided answers to the following questions: (1) What is chance and randomness? (2) Is there a link between misunderstanding the concept of chance and excessive gambling? (3) How does one recognise the symptoms of this disorder? (4) How should retailers intervene if they decide to do so? Results showed that retailers developed a better understanding of problem gambling, could recognise its main symptoms, felt more capable of coping with excessive gamblers, and of choosing the most appropriate moment to do so. In the follow-up phase, retailers who had attended the workshop reported that they approached a problem gambler significantly more often than the retailers who had not attended the workshop, and had discussed how to help problem gamblers significantly more often. The practical implications of these results are briefly discussed.     

Real-time part dispatching within manufacturing cells using fuzzy logic

A new fuzzy logic dispatching method is presented ff which o ers an improvement over certain existing common dispatching rules with respect to the performance measures, number of late parts, maximum part lateness, average producff tion times and machine bu er levels. The fuzzy logic dispatcher incorporates a wider range of scheduling issues than those considered by most dispatching rules, considers certain control ff issues that e ect scheduling, contains mechanisms for optimization and also allows for the addition of more control or scheduling rules.     

TZI: Das ist der Knochen, unsere Themen sind das Fleisch

The first author has been running a ?TZI and self-experience“ workshop for eight years. Participants were undergraduates following educational studies with a family and leisure education bias. The authors try to systematically evaluate this course and to discover structures. A relatively standardized framework with a set content proved to be successful. Added to it are personally relevant topics based on biographical and current experience, questions evolving from the ongoing interaction in the group and work with individual persons in front of the group. How to handle the theme is discussed. Typical and particular difficulties and how to cope with them are presented.     

Evaluation of curricula in higher education: challenges for evaluators

Evaluation of teaching at universities is traditionally realized in terms of student ratings. Curriculum evaluation is rarely done in a systematic manner. More often, the emphasis is placed on a particular aspect, which is only of little help in terms of modifying education. A very prominent example is that of medical education. Here, evaluations of curricula primarily focus on new curricula by contrasting them to traditional ones. The article at hand deals with a different evaluation approach, in which five phases have to be considered and contrasting results to other teaching formats are not the main focus. In this article, the authors concentrate on the first phase (baseline evaluation) of the systematic evaluation of a medical curriculum. They describe several challenges of such an evaluation approach and illustrate the strategies used to overcome them. In addition, associated relevant empirical findings from this evaluation study are presented.     

Acceleration of the Multiple-Try Metropolis algorithm using antithetic and stratified sampling

The Multiple-Try Metropolis is a recent extension of the Metropolis algorithm in which the next state of the chain is selected among a set of proposals. We propose a modification of the Multiple-Try Metropolis algorithm which allows for the use of correlated proposals, particularly antithetic and stratified proposals. The method is particularly useful for random walk Metropolis in high dimensional spaces and can be used easily when the proposal distribution is Gaussian. We explore the use of quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) methods to generate highly stratified samples. A series of examples is presented to evaluate the potential of the method.     

The Second Generation in Belgium

A growing proportion of second‐generation Moroccan and Turkish youngsters in Belgium are moving on to higher secondary education and beyond. This trend is greater among Moroccan youngsters than among their Turkish peers. Turkish girls in particular are still married off at a young age, which inevitably affects their educational opportunities. Despite higher participation rates for youngsters from immigrant backgrounds, the educational gap with Belgian pupils and students remains wide. This is largely attributable to differences in socioeconomic background. It appears that the concentration of second‐generation immigrant pupils in certain schools is also a major explanatory factor. Despite their increased participation in education, second‐generation immigrants are still not well represented in the labor market and they are, moreover, employed mostly in less favorable segments of that market. An interesting development among second‐generation immigrants is the polarization that is taking place in relation to the significance of Islam. A growing number of second‐generation youngsters are opting for a more secular way of life, while an increasingly large group is choosing Islamist ideologies or at least a more conscious form of Islam. For young people of the second generation, who often have little to hold on to socially, Islamism can provide a transparent, supportive, and all‐embracing frame of reference.     

The effect of outside directors’ and auditors’ incentives on managers’ ability to manage cash bonuses

This paper investigates the impact of outside directors’ and auditors’ monetary incentives on the association between discretionary accounting and managers’ cash bonuses in a two-tier system. For a sample of German stock corporations from 2005 to 2007 we expect and find that outside directors who receive compensation based on accounting income and auditors who receive high non-audit fees have the incentive to tolerate managers’ bonus-increasing accounting choices. More specifically, we show that positive discretionary accruals are more strongly associated with managers’ cash bonuses than negative discretionary accruals if outside directors receive accounting-based compensation and/or if auditors receive high non-audit fees. Our results suggest that executives’ ability to manage their cash bonuses depends on the monitoring institutions’ monetary incentives.