The World Fertility Survey: an appraisal of methodology

"In the first half of the article, a broad account of content and procedures is given. In conduct of individual surveys, the achievements of the World Fertility Survey were based on thoroughness rather than technical superiority. The later aspects of the program, including analysis, archiving, and data dissemination, were more innovative and represent models of excellence for similar future enquiries. In overall terms, the program is judged to be an expensive success. In the second half of the article, two methodological issues are discussed in more detail: the collection of retrospective birth histories and the translation of survey instruments into local languages." Comments by Anthony G. Turner (pp. 768-9), Kweku T. de Graft-Johnson (pp. 769-70), Burton Singer (pp. 771-2), and Joel E. Cohen (pp. 772-4) are appended.     

Modelling Marital Fertility by Age and Duration: An Empirical Appraisal of the Page Model

Page's model of marital fertility by age and duration is fitted by maximum likelihood techniques to data from 38 of the 41 developing countries that participated in the World Fertility Survey. The results indicate that the model does an excellent job of capturing variations in fertility patterns, with only two parameters. Moreover, national-level estimates of the parameter representing the degree of control of marital fertility correlate reasonably well with the proportion using contraception. On the other hand, estimates of the parameter representing the level of natural fertility correlate well with the duration of breastfeeding and with a measure of contraceptive use for spacing, but also show substantial regional variation. The paper closes with comments on several extensions and applications of the model.     

Do unintended pregnancies carried to term lead to adverse outcomes for mother and child? An assessment in five developing countries

This paper investigates whether children later reported as having been unwanted or mistimed at conception will, when compared with children reported as wanted, show adverse effects when the following criteria are applied: receipt of antenatal care before the sixth month of gestation, supervised delivery, full vaccination of the child, and child growth (stunting). The study uses data from five recent Demographic and Health Survey enquiries in Bolivia, Egypt, Kenya, Peru, and the Philippines. In Peru, children unwanted at conception were found to have significantly worse outcomes than other children, but in the other countries, a systematic effect was found only for receipt of antenatal care. Weak measurement of the complex concept of wantedness may have contributed to these results. Birth order of the child, with which wantedness is inextricably linked, has more powerful and pervasive effects, with first-born and second-born children being much less likely to show adverse effects.     

The Proximate Determinants of Fertility: Sub-national Variations

In this paper changes in the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility, as modernization increases, are analysed Educational attainment and type of place of current residence are used as indicators of modernization. We concentrate on the three most important proximate variables: marriage, contraception and breastfeeding, and the analysis is performed on 29 World Fertility Survey countries. Bongaarts's multiplicative model is used for the analysis but the primary data tapes make it possible to construct more refined estimates of the three indices than is usually possible. The patterns of the indices among the two sets of socio-economic sub-groups are considered, as well as the interrelationships of the indices. Fertility differences among the sub-groups are also decomposed to assess the contribution of the separate proximate determinants to sub-group variations in fertility.     

Trends in reproductive behavior among young single women in Colombia and Peru: 1985–1999

Using "calendar" data for single women aged 15-24 from successive Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in Colombia and Peru during the 1990s, we document trends, year by year, in sexual activity, the use of contraceptives, and subsequent reproductive outcomes. We provide evidence of the important and hitherto largely untapped potential of DHS calendar data to draw complete sexual and reproductive profiles when data from various surveys are integrated. Over the period 1985-1999, young single women in both Colombia and Peru became sexually active at younger ages. The use of contraceptives, especially the use of condoms, increased but did not fully offset the rise in sexual activity, and thus the incidence of premarital conceptions rose among young single women. In both countries, sharp declines occurred in the proportion of premaritally conceived births that were reported as being wanted.     

Demographic data collection in less developed countries 1946-1996

This evolution over the last 50 years of data collection systems in less developed countries is assessed. The progress made by civil registration systems has been extremely disappointing. Except in Central and South America, their role in providing vital rate estimates is still very limited. In contrast, the promulgation of regular population censuses has been a success, particularly in Africa. The relative merits and demerits of different types of demographic surveys are described. To some extent multi-round designs have given way to single-round surveys, such as the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). DHS-style enquiries are particularly suitable for evaluation of interventions but are less appropriate if the main aim is to measure vital rates.     

Counselor confounds in evaluations of vocational rehabilitation methods in substance dependency treatment

Evaluation research on vocational counseling in substance dependency treatment should distinguish between the effects of counselors and counseling methods on clients' employment outcomes. Three experimental designs permit investigation of possible confounds between these types of effects: (a) nested designs (each counselor delivers one counseling method so counselors are nested under methods), (b) crossed designs (each counselor delivers all counseling methods so counselors are crossed with methods), and (c) no-treatment control group designs (experimental group's counselors all deliver the same method). Each design is optimal for one stage of evaluation research. No-treatment control group designs are best for exploratory evaluations of new types of vocational counseling. Nested designs are best for outcome evaluations of different types of interventions. Crossed designs are best for (causal) process evaluations of counseling methods of demonstrated efficacy. Despite the importance of methodological issues and problems, vocational rehabilitation in substance dependency treatment has a greater need for stronger interventions than better evaluation designs.     

Fans, homophobia and masculinities in association football: evidence of a more inclusive environment

This article draws on 3,500 responses from fans and professionals involved in association football (soccer) to an anonymous online survey posted from June 2010 to October 2010 regarding their views towards gay footballers. The overall findings are that, contrary to assumptions of homophobia, there is evidence of rapidly decreasing homophobia within the culture of football fandom. The results advance inclusive masculinity theory with 93 per cent of fans of all ages stating that there is no place for homophobia within football. Fans blame agents and clubs for the lack of openness and challenge football's governing organizations to oppose the culture of secrecy surrounding gay players and to provide a more inclusive environment to support players who want to come out.     

Towards an evaluation of a business school graduate programme

An evaluation research methodology, which has been validated in a previous study, and which was developed to be both scientifically defensible and feasible from a practical point of view, is described. This involves collecting course participants' judgements about the effects of the course, and taking steps to ensure that the process by which the participants arrive at these judgements is sound. The application of this methodology to a course in business administration revealed the following effects or consequences: (1) Access to and progress in successful careers; (2) Flexibility and mobility in careers; (3) Ability to take overall view of problems; (4) Personal confidence; (5) Awareness of own aspirations and career fit; (6) Frustration from unused skills and unfulfilled expectations; (7) High salaries; (8) General reasoning and problem solving ability; (9) Economic/commercial understanding; (10) Understanding of organisation and human behaviour; (11) Useful work, career and personal contacts; (12) Social skills.