Ethiopia's developmental state: A building stability framework assessment

Ethiopia has been lauded for its economic growth and progress in human development indicators. For some, that success is rooted in the developmental state approach advocated by the government. For others, the theory of the developmental state and the practice in Ethiopia were often at odds. Up until 2018, ideas that challenged the state and its approaches were not welcome, and politicians, academics and journalists were jailed for expressing alternative views. However, this appears to have changed, and in June 2018 the Deputy Prime Minister called for debate on the developmental state model. This article explores Ethiopia's developmental state model using the building stability framework, analysing its ability to establish fair power structures, foster inclusive economic growth, develop conflict‐resolution mechanisms, create effective and legitimate institutions, and enable a supportive regional environment. We find the developmental state was effective in a number of ways, but that this modality of governance appears to have passed its peak of securing advantage in Ethiopia. A shift from the developmental state to developmental democracy appears to be underway. Decision‐making and economic policies need to align with this change.     

Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long‐term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long‐term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short‐term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a “budget constraint” determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy—the expected pattern of future state‐contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions—matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long‐term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy‐induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.     

Expression and ambivalence over expression of negative emotion:psychometric analysis in the Women's Health Initiative

Inhibition of emotional expression has been associated with the incidence and progression of breast cancer and other chronic illnesses. Others have theorized that it may not be repression itself, but rather ambivalence over the expression of emotions that is the important health-related factor. The Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a long-term, national study focusing on disease prevention among postmenopausal women, is unique in its assessment of expression and ambivalence of negative emotion in a large study sample of multiethnic, older women. Psychological factors such as expression of negative emotion and ambivalence about expression of emotion are also determined by social patterning. The current study examined the psychometric properties of the instruments used to measure each construct and variation across race/ethnicity and age. The analysis suggests that the scales can be used with confidence in diverse ethnic and age groups. Examining ambivalence about expression of negative emotion in future longitudinal research will further elucidate its role in predicting disease incidence and recovery, both important in reducing the public health burden of chronic disease.     

Corporate planning and project evaluation in urban transport

The paper describes the development of corporate objectives by Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive, the largest urban transport operator in the U.K. outside London. Four corporate objectives, each covering a different dimension of performance, have been adopted. The objectives pose problems for project evaluation because a project can contribute positively to one or more, and negatively to another or others. A technique for overcoming these problems, using the ‘trade-off’ concept, is being developed, and the practical application of this technique to two major investments is discussed in detail.     

Children as by-products, investment goods and consumer goods: A Review of some micro-economic models of fertility

Summary This paper is a review of a number of applications of traditional micro-economics to the analysis of fertility. In this paper four general models of family size are developed and utilized for classifying previous work on the micro-economic analysis of fertility. The general models describe four family decision-making situations. The outcome of these decisions determines fertility either directly or indirectly. In the first model, parents are forced to choose between sexual activity and a higher standard of living. Children are the by-products of the amount of sexual activity chosen. In the second model, children are an investment good and family size is determined by the choice between current and future consumption. The third and fourth models depict situations in which children are considered to be desirable in themselves, that is, they are consumption goods.     

因陀罗:比较神话学专题研究

以古印度吠陀神话中的战神因陀罗为出发点,考察与之相关的文献后发现,因陀罗与世界其他神话中的英雄们有着相同的特征.从考古天文学的角度看,火星与各民族战神之间有着密切关系.     

Mortality level,desired family size,and population increase: Comment

In this paper an attempt is made to elaborate on the behavioral assumptions underlying a simulation model published in a previous volume of this journal (Heer and Smith, 1968). The present paper contains a discussion of the ways in which a fall in the death rate of children will affect the desirability of another birth if the family's objective is to have a son surviving to the father's sixty-fifth birthday. The death rate affects both the expected costs of and benefits from an additional birth. An examination of the effects of a decline in child mortality indicates that the benefits from an additional birth fall and the expected costs rise as a result of the decline. Thus a death rate will eventually be reached where costs exceed benefits, and parents will not desire an additional pregnancy.