Ethiopia's developmental state: A building stability framework assessment

Ethiopia has been lauded for its economic growth and progress in human development indicators. For some, that success is rooted in the developmental state approach advocated by the government. For others, the theory of the developmental state and the practice in Ethiopia were often at odds. Up until 2018, ideas that challenged the state and its approaches were not welcome, and politicians, academics and journalists were jailed for expressing alternative views. However, this appears to have changed, and in June 2018 the Deputy Prime Minister called for debate on the developmental state model. This article explores Ethiopia's developmental state model using the building stability framework, analysing its ability to establish fair power structures, foster inclusive economic growth, develop conflict‐resolution mechanisms, create effective and legitimate institutions, and enable a supportive regional environment. We find the developmental state was effective in a number of ways, but that this modality of governance appears to have passed its peak of securing advantage in Ethiopia. A shift from the developmental state to developmental democracy appears to be underway. Decision‐making and economic policies need to align with this change.     

谈谈学分制下如何做好学生党建工作

全面推行学分制是高校教学改革的深化,是教育和教学改革的一个发展阶段.但由于学分制所带来的思想教育、学生党建等新情况、新问题,应值得所有教育者认真思考和研究的.本文围绕学分制实行后给学生党建工作带来的"四难"以及如何应对提出了一些理论和实践的思考.     

论宗教对我国西北边疆安全的双重影响

宗教对国家安全和社会政治稳定所产生的影响主要表现在其所特有的功能上。一方面,当宗教与社会政治体系相一致时,它就能促使其社会成员共同意志、共同信念的形成,对国家安全和社会政治稳定起到明显的促进作用;另一方面,宗教作为一种文化现象,还是科学与非科学、理性与非理性、道德与非道德相对而言的复杂统一体,因此具有滞后性、敏感性、触发性,当它成为引发社会不稳定的"互动源"和"感染源"时,会对国家安全和社会政治稳定产生负面影响。     

Long‐Term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level

The fiscal theory says that the price level is determined by the ratio of nominal debt to the present value of real primary surpluses. I analyze long‐term debt and optimal policy in the fiscal theory. I find that the maturity structure of the debt matters. For example, it determines whether news of future deficits implies current inflation or future inflation. When long‐term debt is present, the government can trade current inflation for future inflation by debt operations; this tradeoff is not present if the government rolls over short‐term debt. The maturity structure of outstanding debt acts as a “budget constraint” determining which periods' price levels the government can affect by debt variation alone. In addition, debt policy—the expected pattern of future state‐contingent debt sales, repurchases and redemptions—matters crucially for the effects of a debt operation. I solve for optimal debt policies to minimize the variance of inflation. I find cases in which long‐term debt helps to stabilize inflation. I also find that the optimal policy produces time series that are similar to U.S. surplus and debt time series. To understand the data, I must assume that debt policy offsets the inflationary impact of cyclical surplus shocks, rather than causing price level disturbances by policy‐induced shocks. Shifting the objective from price level variance to inflation variance, the optimal policy produces much less volatile inflation at the cost of a unit root in the price level; this is consistent with the stabilization of U.S. inflation after the gold standard was abandoned.     

Expression and ambivalence over expression of negative emotion:psychometric analysis in the Women's Health Initiative

Inhibition of emotional expression has been associated with the incidence and progression of breast cancer and other chronic illnesses. Others have theorized that it may not be repression itself, but rather ambivalence over the expression of emotions that is the important health-related factor. The Women's Health Initiative (WHI), a long-term, national study focusing on disease prevention among postmenopausal women, is unique in its assessment of expression and ambivalence of negative emotion in a large study sample of multiethnic, older women. Psychological factors such as expression of negative emotion and ambivalence about expression of emotion are also determined by social patterning. The current study examined the psychometric properties of the instruments used to measure each construct and variation across race/ethnicity and age. The analysis suggests that the scales can be used with confidence in diverse ethnic and age groups. Examining ambivalence about expression of negative emotion in future longitudinal research will further elucidate its role in predicting disease incidence and recovery, both important in reducing the public health burden of chronic disease.     

Corporate planning and project evaluation in urban transport

The paper describes the development of corporate objectives by Greater Manchester Passenger Transport Executive, the largest urban transport operator in the U.K. outside London. Four corporate objectives, each covering a different dimension of performance, have been adopted. The objectives pose problems for project evaluation because a project can contribute positively to one or more, and negatively to another or others. A technique for overcoming these problems, using the ‘trade-off’ concept, is being developed, and the practical application of this technique to two major investments is discussed in detail.