Estimating utility functions using generalized maximum entropy

This paper estimates von Neumann and Morgenstern utility functions using the generalized maximum entropy (GME), applied to data obtained by utility elicitation methods. Given the statistical advantages of this approach, we provide a comparison of the performance of the GME estimator with ordinary least square (OLS) in a real data small sample setup. The results confirm the ones obtained for small samples through Monte Carlo simulations. The difference between the two estimators is small and it decreases as the width of the parameter support vector increases. Moreover, the GME estimator is more precise than the OLS one. Overall, the results suggest that GME is an interesting alternative to OLS in the estimation of utility functions when data are generated by utility elicitation methods.     

On the Exact and Near-Exact Distributions of the Product of Generalized Gamma Random Variables and the Generalized Variance

In this article, the authors first obtain the exact distribution of the logarithm of the product of independent generalized Gamma r.v.’s (random variables) in the form of a Generalized Integer Gamma distribution of infinite depth, where all the rate and shape parameters are well identified. Then, by a routine transformation, simple and manageable expressions for the exact distribution of the product of independent generalized Gamma r.v.’s are derived. The method used also enables us to obtain quite easily very accurate, manageable and simple near-exact distributions in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions. Numerical studies are carried out to assess the precision of different approximations to the exact distribution and they show the high accuracy of the approximations provided by the near-exact distributions. As particular cases of the exact distributions obtained we have the distribution of the product of independent Gamma, Weibull, Frechet, Maxwell-Boltzman, Half-Normal, Rayleigh, and Exponential distributions, as well as the exact distribution of the generalized variance, the exact distribution of discriminants or Vandermonde determinants and the exact distribution of any linear combination of generalized Gumbel distributions, as well as yet the distribution of the product of any power of the absolute value of independent Normal r.v.’s.     

Small area estimation of mean price of habitation transaction using time-series and cross-sectional area-level models

In this paper, a new small domain estimator for area-level data is proposed. The proposed estimator is driven by a real problem of estimating the mean price of habitation transaction at a regional level in a European country, using data collected from a longitudinal survey conducted by a national statistical office. At the desired level of inference, it is not possible to provide accurate direct estimates because the sample sizes in these domains are very small. An area-level model with a heterogeneous covariance structure of random effects assists the proposed combined estimator. This model is an extension of a model due to Fay and Herriot [5], but it integrates information across domains and over several periods of time. In addition, a modified method of estimation of variance components for time-series and cross-sectional area-level models is proposed by including the design weights. A Monte Carlo simulation, based on real data, is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed estimators in comparison with other estimators frequently used in small area estimation problems. In particular, we compare the performance of these estimators with the estimator based on the Rao–Yu model [23]. The simulation study also accesses the performance of the modified variance component estimators in comparison with the traditional ANOVA method. Simulation results show that the estimators proposed perform better than the other estimators in terms of both precision and bias.     

Portuguese adopted adolescents' perception of attachment relationships to parents

The establishment of emotional bonds is one of the most important tasks of the adoptive family. Most research about attachment in adoption focuses on young adopted children, as opposed to adoptees in other stages of development. The present study aims at assessing the adopted adolescents' self‐perception of attachment relationships with their adoptive parents, by pairing them with a group of institutionalized adolescents and another one of adolescents in the community. One hundred sixty‐five adolescents (55 adopted, 55 in residential care, and 55 living with their birth family), aged 12 to 19, participated in this study. Data were collected using the Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment to assess attachment relationships with parents on three dimensions: trust, communication, and alienation. The results showed that adoptees perceived their relationship with their parents in a similar way to peers in the community and presented higher results when compared to institutionalized adolescents in trust and communication and lower scores in alienation. The results highlighted the relevance of family context experiences and suggested that adoption can offer the possibility of building a secure attachment relationship, which is not the case in the context of collective care, as happens within institutionalized care.     

Development and comparative study of two near-exact approximations to the distribution of the product of an odd number of independent Beta random variables

Using the concept of near-exact approximation to a distribution we developed two different near-exact approximations to the distribution of the product of an odd number of particular independent Beta random variables (r.v.'s). One of them is a particular generalized near-integer Gamma (GNIG) distribution and the other is a mixture of two GNIG distributions. These near-exact distributions are mostly adequate to be used as a basis for approximations of distributions of several statistics used in multivariate analysis. By factoring the characteristic function (c.f.) of the logarithm of the product of the Beta r.v.'s, and then replacing a suitably chosen factor of that c.f. by an adequate asymptotic result it is possible to obtain what we call a near-exact c.f., which gives rise to the near-exact approximation to the exact distribution. Depending on the asymptotic result used to replace the chosen parts of the c.f., one may obtain different near-exact approximations. Moments from the two near-exact approximations developed are compared with the exact ones. The two approximations are also compared with each other, namely in terms of moments and quantiles.     

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the “Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment” of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the “International Safety Management Code” are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.     

Life Satisfaction in Brazil: Testing the Psychometric Properties of the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS) in Five Brazilian Samples

The aim of this paper was to validate the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), presenting evidence of its reliability and construct and criterion-related validity. A large Brazilian sample (2,180 participants), from five different populations (undergraduate and high school students, general population, elementary school teachers, and physicians), was considered. The results confirmed the single factorial structure and reliability (0.77 < Cronbach’s α < 0.88, mean α = 0.81) of the SWLS. Supporting its criterion-related validity, the SWLS correlated positively with positive affect and negatively with both negative affect and psychological distress across all five samples. The findings indicate that the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the SWLS is a valid instrument to use with diverse Brazilian samples.     

The footwear factory's assembly sector: opposing organizational structure and quality from the ergonomic work analysis

Data from 2006 indicated that Brazilian footwear leather industry was composed of approximately 9,488 formally registered establishments, considering the leather industry, footwear and leather goods. It was responsible for 211,582 people employed. However, in spite of having many employees, this kind of organization found several problems when analyzed from the ergonomics view. With this premise, then, in order to identify bottlenecks and other engineering problems that could cause discomfort and motivation lack among workers, leading directly to the loss of the product quality, the assembly sector of women's shoes factory was characterized.     

Macroergonomic aspects in the design of development programs in IDCs

This paper revisits three reports on ergonomic aspects of development initiatives taking place in Industrially Developing Countries (IDCs). These include a macro-ergonomics intervention in a habitation community in Cape Verde (aimed at designing solutions contributing to sustainable development), the evolution of poultry growers' control strategies as an integrative broiler operation is introduced in Mozambique, and a set of macro-ergonomic considerations related to the Agro Forestry Village Project in Mozambique. The paper seeks to set the reviewed development endeavors against the backdrop of the goals of ergonomics interventions. This reflection may inform development agents in future processes of design and implementation of integrated community and work systems transformation.     

The determinants of export performance: A review of the research in the literature between 1998 and 2005

Considerable attention has been paid to the determinants of export performance. However, despite this research effort in identifying and examining the influence of such determinants, the literature is characterized by fragmentation and diversity, hindering theory development and practical advancement in the field. This paper attempts to review and synthesize the knowledge on the subject. As a result, this study reviews and evaluates 52 articles published between 1998 and 2005 to assess the determinants of export performance. The assessment reveals that: (a) more studies have been conducted outside the USA; (b) the majority of the studies focus on manufacturing firms, with relatively few studies examining the service sector; (c) the majority of the export studies continue to focus on small to medium‐sized firms; (d) there is a continuous increase in the sample size; (e) despite the problems that may arise from the use of single informants, it seems that none of the studies reviewed here collected data from more than one informant in the firm; (f) an increasing number of studies have been using the export venture as the unit of analysis; (g) the level of statistical sophistication has improved; (h) the use of control and moderating variables in export performance studies has increased; (i) more studies have started to include the external environment in their models, including domestic market characteristics; and (j) market orientation as a key determinant of export performance emerges in this review. Finally, conclusions are drawn, along with some suggestions for further research.