The role of simulation techniques in the theory and observation of family formation

Summary The investigation of fertility change can involve the consideration of the results of micro-level empirical studies in the context of an economic theory of family formation. In particular, a change in the observable statistics can then be related to a change in behaviour, or factors influencing behaviour. The analysis of this relationship is hindered, however, by its complexity and by the large number of stochastic variables present. It is argued that an essential aid to such an analysis is the use of a model suitable for simulation. Here, we present such a model and illustrate possible applications with various experiments.     

Duration of Marriage,Fertility and Women's Employment Opportunities in England and Wales in 1911

Data from the 1911 Census of England and Wales are examined for evidence of family limitation early in marriage. It is shown that a substantial number of couples used birth control for ‘spacing’ as well as for ‘stopping’ fertility. Moreover ‘spacing’ of births appears to have been more widespread in districts in which women's employment opportunities were relatively good. In general, the results obtained do not fit with the Princeton view of the European fertility transition with its stress on parity-specific family limitation spreading in response to improvements in contraceptive information and technology.     

A simulation of the impact of changes in age at marriage before and during the advent of industrialization in England

Summary The quantitative significance of changes in age at marriage on family size is assessed by applying a simple simulation model of family reproduction, using data broadly related to England in the period 1700-1850. Within this context, the impacts of parity-specific infant mortality, and an association between age at marriage and potential fertility are considered. The evidence concerning variations in marriage and mortality distributions over the period in question is examined and linked to the simulation results to produce some tentative conclusions relating to the impact of changes in the distribution of age at marriage on the birth rate and rate of population growth and to an assessment of such changes as an homeostatic adjustment mech-anism. In particular, it is argued that age at marriage played no more than a secondary role in the English demographic revolution.