Recent Life Expectancy Divergence in Baltic Countries

Until the end of the 1990s, mortality patterns and trends in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were remarkably similar. However, from the year 2000 onwards, life expectancy trends in the three countries started to diverge. In particular, sustainable progress in Estonia over the period 2000–2007 contrasts with stagnation in Latvia, and even worsening trends in Lithuania. These contradictory changes seem to be mainly explained by contrasting dynamics in mortality from cardiovascular diseases, external causes of death and digestive system diseases. Whereas cardiovascular and external-cause mortality declined in Estonia and Latvia, worsening or stagnation of mortality from these causes of death was observed in Lithuania. The negative mortality changes in Lithuania were also reinforced by a striking increase in mortality from alcohol-related digestive system diseases. The findings suggest that the divergence in health trends between the three countries may be attributable to their varying degrees of success in implementing structural health care reforms and specific health policy measures. By contrast, the very recent improvement (since 2008) is parallel in the three countries and is largely because of the introduction of rather similar anti-alcohol measures.     

The Mass Emigration Context of Lithuania: Patterns and Policy Options

Lithuania represents one of the rare cases in which a state with relatively high standards for maintaining population statistics is experiencing mass emigration. In light of the policy initiatives undertaken by the Lithuanian government to address the issue of emigration, this study aims to improve our understanding of how, in this mass emigration context, emigration events are connected to specific socio‐economic characteristics of individuals and variation in local socio‐economic conditions. We analyse census and vital registration data covering the whole working‐age population of Lithuania during the period 2011‐2012. Our findings indicate that when assessing the likelihood of emigration events, individual‐level characteristics such as employment status, educational attainment, and prior migration experience are highly relevant. However, the importance of these characteristics differs by gender. We also detect considerable spatial variation in emigration rates across Lithuanian municipalities. Our outcomes provide new insights for the development of cohesive migration policies in Lithuania.     

Mortality in Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia: Divergence in Recent Trends and Possible Explanations

Before the collapse of the Soviet Union, Belarus, Lithuania, and Russia were quite comparable in terms of their socioeconomic development. Despite some differences in overall mortality levels, the three former Soviet republics were also very close to each other in terms of directions of mortality trends and age- and cause-specific mortality patterns. After 1991, all the three countries experienced substantial political and social transformations, and the challenges associated with the transition from a socialist to a market economy system. The sudden changes brought numerous problems, such as rapid growth in unemployment, falling standards of living, and growing social and income inequalities. These factors contributed to the significant deterioration of the health situation in all the countries, but the size and the nature of the mortality crisis was different in Belarus than it was in Lithuania and Russia. The marked similarities in socioeconomic and mortality trends in the countries up to 1991 contrast with their notable divergence during the subsequent years. The nature and success of market reforms seems to be the most plausible explanation for these differences. Russia and Lithuania have chosen more radical forms of economic and political transformations, which have led to massive privatization campaigns. The reforms were more sustainable and systematic in Lithuania than in Russia. By contrast, Belarus has chosen a gradual and slow transition path. Recent mortality trends in Belarus are explored in detail here, and are contrasted with those observed in Lithuania and Russia. Including a cause-of-death analysis sheds more light on the plausible determinants of the variations in mortality levels between the countries.     

Trends and geographic differentials in mortality under age 60 in India

The study examines overall and region-specific mortality changes and regional mortality variation in India since the 1970s, using data from the Sample Registration System (SRS). An evaluation of the quality of SRS data confirms their reliability for children and adults under age 60. The results suggest the convergence of mortality across the regions of India with important inter-state differences in the pace of health improvements over time. After spectacular progress during the 1970s and the 1980s, many Indian states have witnessed slower mortality improvements in both young and adult age groups. India faces difficulties in making further reductions in infant mortality and in the burden of chronic and man-made diseases at adult ages.     

Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages

Mortality data for 30 mostly developed countries available in the Kannisto–Thatcher Database on Old‐Age Mortality (KTDB) are drawn on to assess the pace of decline in death rates at ages 80 years and above. As of 2004 this database recorded 37 million persons at these ages, including 130,000 centenarians (more than double the number in 1990). For men, the probability of surviving from age 80 to age 90 has risen from 12 percent in 1950 to 26 percent in 2002; for women, the increase has been from 16 percent to 38 percent. In the lowest‐mortality country, Japan, life expectancy at age 80 in 2006 is estimated to be 6.5 years for men and 11.3 years for women. For selected countries, average annual percent declines in age‐specific death rates over the preceding ten years are calculated for single‐year age groups 80 to 99 and the years 1970 to 2004. The results are presented in Lexis maps showing the patterns of change in old‐age mortality by cohort and period, and separately for men and women. The trends are not favorable in all countries: for example, old‐age mortality in the United States has stagnated since 1980. But countries with exceptionally low mortality, like Japan and France, do not show a deceleration in death rate declines. It is argued that life expectancy at advanced ages may continue to increase at the same pace as in the past.