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In this paper we compare several types of economic dependency ratios for a selection of European countries. These dependency ratios take into account not only the demographic structure of the population, but also the differences in age-specific economic behaviour such as labour market activity, income and consumption as well as age-specific public transfers. In selected simulations where we combine patterns of age-specific economic behaviour and transfers with population projections, we show that in all countries population ageing would lead to a pronounced increase in dependency ratios if present age-specific patterns were not to change. Our analysis of cross-country differences in economic dependency demonstrates that these differences are driven by both differences in age-specific economic behaviour and in the age composition of the populations. The choice of which dependency ratio to use in a specific policy context is determined by the nature of the question to be answered. The comparison of our various dependency ratios across countries gives insights into which strategies might be effective in mitigating the expected increase in economic dependency due to demographic change.  相似文献   
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This article challenges the established convention in immigration policy scholarship of treating economic utility and identity maintenance as logically distinct concerns. Drawing on work by Weber, Wallerstein and Bourdieu, we argue that concerns about economic utility and identity maintenance interact in the immigration policies of Western liberal democratic states, leading to policies designed to build and maintain middle‐class national status groups. Using the example of contemporary immigration policy in Germany, we illustrate how this impulse to build the middle‐class status group affects immigrant inclusion/exclusion in nuanced ways at both the group and individual levels, along class/status, ethnic and gender lines. We conclude by considering the policy implications of growing and shaping populations according to middle‐class ideals, particularly for the statistical monitoring of immigrant populations for integration benchmarking purposes.  相似文献   
4.
Missing covariate values is a common problem in survival analysis. In this paper we propose a novel method for the Cox regression model that is close to maximum likelihood but avoids the use of the EM-algorithm. It exploits that the observed hazard function is multiplicative in the baseline hazard function with the idea being to profile out this function before carrying out the estimation of the parameter of interest. In this step one uses a Breslow type estimator to estimate the cumulative baseline hazard function. We focus on the situation where the observed covariates are categorical which allows us to calculate estimators without having to assume anything about the distribution of the covariates. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, and derive a consistent estimator of the variance–covariance matrix that does not involve any choice of a perturbation parameter. Moderate sample size performance of the estimators is investigated via simulation and by application to a real data example.  相似文献   
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The recursive least squares technique is often extended with exponential forgetting as a tool for parameter estimation in time-varying systems. The distribution of the resulting parameter estimates is, however, unknown when the forgetting factor is less than one. In this paper an approximative expression for bias of the recursively obtained parameter estimates in a time-invariant AR( na ) process with arbitrary noise is given, showing that the bias is non-zero and giving bounds on the approximation errors. Simulations confirm the approximation expressions.  相似文献   
6.
The article focuses on the autobiographical memories of people born in Germany after the Second World War, whose mothers were local women and whose fathers were members of the allied forces. Based on the analysis of narrative interviews, we ask how these people experienced their growing up and their sociocultural environment in the post‐war era, and what kind of coping strategies they developed to deal with adverse living conditions.  相似文献   
7.
A young person's first consensual sexual intercourse experience is often a remarkable and memorable experience. However, little systematic information exists regarding contextual factors of first intercourse, the affective salience of the experience, possible effects on sexual attitudes and beliefs, and subsequent sexual development and adjustment. This retrospective study aimed to examine these in a sample of 475 young adults. Overall, young men and women experienced intercourse for the first time around age 17, were in a committed relationship, and reported positive affective responses. Affective reactions to the first sexual intercourse experience, sexual self-efficacy, sexual aversion, and age at first intercourse affected individuals' current sexual adjustment; however, only sexual self-efficacy mediated between first intercourse and current sexual adjustment in young men and women. Older age at first intercourse was associated with less sexual self-efficacy and lower current sexual adjustment for women. This study provides initial data to suggest that the first sexual intercourse experience significantly impacts current sexual adjustment by affecting beliefs about sexual self-efficacy.  相似文献   
8.
The aim of this paper is twofold. The first aim is to unfold the moral complexity of organic food consumption as part of household food provisioning. By acknowledging this complexity, and the difficulty of determining what is ‘good’ and ‘right’ in food provisioning, the idea is to allow for a better understanding of how organic food may, or may not, fit in with the various concerns of food provisioning. The second aim is to analyse how food provisioners handle this complexity so that food provisioning can proceed as an ordinary everyday activity.The paper analyses empirical material from a study of household food provisioning in Denmark. Theoretically, it draws on French pragmatic sociology as represented by the work of Boltanski and Thévenot on moral conventions and regimes of engagement. The analysis illustrates that food provisioning involves several competing sets of moral conventions and that the status of organic food in relation to these is often uncertain and contested. However, it also identifies among provisioners different strategies for handling this moral complexity in ordinary everyday life. The paper calls for some modesty in trying to change consumer behaviour in favour of organic products. Providing consumers with more information about organic food may not make it easier to determine what is ‘good’ and ‘right’ when buying food. It may only add to the complexity of food provisioning and thus to the need for compromise and pragmatism.  相似文献   
9.
There has been considerable interest in studying the magnitude and type of inheritance of specific diseases. This is typically derived from family or twin studies, where the basic idea is to compare the correlation for different pairs that share different amount of genes. We here consider data from the Danish twin registry and discuss how to define heritability for cancer occurrence. The key point is that this should be done taking censoring as well as competing risks due to e.g.  death into account. We describe the dependence between twins on the probability scale and show that various models can be used to achieve sensible estimates of the dependence within monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs that may vary over time. These dependence measures can subsequently be decomposed into a genetic and environmental component using random effects models. We here present several novel models that in essence describe the association in terms of the concordance probability, i.e., the probability that both twins experience the event, in the competing risks setting. We also discuss how to deal with the left truncation present in the Nordic twin registries, due to sampling only of twin pairs where both twins are alive at the initiation of the registries.  相似文献   
10.
This article describes the development and validation of the Governance Self‐Assessment Checklist (GSAC). The GSAC was designed to assist boards of directors of nonprofit and public sector organizations to identify strengths and weaknesses in the governance of their organizations, educate board members about the essentials of good governance, and improve their governance practices. The instrument comprises 144 items organized into twelve subscales. The results of the study indicated that the subscales have excellent internal consistency reliability, exhibit good criterion‐related validity, and are able to discriminate between stronger and weaker aspects of board functioning. The relative strengths and weaknesses in board effectiveness were identified, and the implications of the findings for the assessment of board effectiveness and field applications of the GSAC were discussed.  相似文献   
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