The role of fertility in achieving Africa's schooling MDGs: Early evidence for sub-Saharan Africa

In theory, declines in national fertility boost schooling by reducing age dependency, but questions remain about the size and catalysts of this dividend. We address these questions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by using a detailed framework and decomposition methods. Results about catalysts suggest that, beyond policy, dividends depend on characteristics of fertility transitions and changes in employment, economic performance, and public commitment to education. Results about the size of Africa's schooling dividends are mixed. On one hand, the annual schooling resource per child grew on average by $73 between 1990 and 2005, with a third of this growth tied to trends in age dependency. Yet despite these nominal gains, Africa lost ground relative to the world partly because age dependency declined even more in other regions. Only after 2105, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) deadline, will Africa begin to narrow its gap vis-à-vis the world average. Also, dividends are predicted to accrue earlier among countries already having higher enrollments, suggesting that transitions may initially raise schooling inequality across sub-Saharan countries.     

Family size and schooling in sub-Saharan African settings: A reexamination

Contrary to theory and evidence from many other regions, previous studies in sub-Saharan Africa have found surprisingly weak associations between family size and schooling. It is unclear; however, whether these weak results reflect (spurious) limitations in methodology or (real) differences in context. This study uses schooling histories from Cameroon to test four contending methodological and contextual explanations for these weak results: measurement bias, statistical estimation bias, family buffering, and socioeconomic context. We find the strongest support for the last explanation: the relationship between family size and schooling varies with spatial and historical context. This relationship has strengthened within the country over time, and this raises concern about the implications of current demographic transitions on inequality among children.     

Growing up global and equal? Inequality trends among world children, 1980–2005

Children are increasingly expected to grow up global yet their worldwide inequality is understudied; while countries’ incomes may be converging, it is unclear whether children's outcomes also do. This paper investigates the recent trends in global inequality among children. Findings show a fall in resource inequality, driven by Asia's exponential economic growth and Africa's slowing fertility trends. Paradoxically, this resource convergence occurred alongside divergence in infant mortality. Such findings have three implications. First, they caution against assuming automatic convergence in children's well-being in response to income convergence between nations. Second, they illustrate how national differences in age dependency account for global inequality among children. Third and more broadly, they stress the importance of demographic and policy – in addition to economic – convergence in bridging substantive inequality among the world‘s children.     

Are there crisis-led fertility declines? Evidence from central Cameroon

Past demographic transitions have beenobserved with and without economic progress, but thereis little empirical record of crisis-driven fertilitytransitions. In recent years, several authors haveargued that conditions for such transitions are met inAfrican countries under economic crisis and structuraladjustment. Using retrospective family histories,this study examines fertility responses to crisis inCameroon, a country with a particularly abrupteconomic reversal. The thesis of a crisis-led declineis tested on the basis of five criteria includingtiming of the decline, statistical and substantivesignificance, rural-urban response differentials andsocial salience. Findings are consistent with acrisis-led effect.     

Fertility Transitions and Schooling: From Micro- to Macro-Level Associations

Research on the schooling implications of fertility transitions often faces an aggregation problem: despite policy interest in macro-level outcomes, empirical studies usually focus on the micro-level effects of sibsize on schooling. This article proposes an aggregation framework for moving from micro- to macro-level associations between fertility and schooling. The proposed framework is an improvement over previous aggregation methods in that it considers concurrent changes in the effects of sibsize, socioeconomic context, and family structure. The framework is illustrated with data from six sub-Saharan countries. Possible extensions are discussed.