Objective Testing Procedures in Linear Models: Calibration of the p-values

Abstract.  An optimal Bayesian decision procedure for testing hypothesis in normal linear models based on intrinsic model posterior probabilities is considered. It is proven that these posterior probabilities are simple functions of the classical F -statistic, thus the evaluation of the procedure can be carried out analytically through the frequentist analysis of the posterior probability of the null. An asymptotic analysis proves that, under mild conditions on the design matrix, the procedure is consistent. For any testing hypothesis it is also seen that there is a one-to-one mapping – which we call calibration curve – between the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the classical bi p -value. This curve adds substantial knowledge about the possible discrepancies between the Bayesian and the p -value measures of evidence for testing hypothesis. It permits a better understanding of the serious difficulties that are encountered in linear models for interpreting the p -values. A specific illustration of the variable selection problem is given.     

Long distance intimacy: class,gender and intergenerational relations between mothers and children in Filipino transnational families

Abstract In this article I address transnational intergenerational relations between Filipino migrant mothers and their young adult children and examine how families achieve intimacy across great distances. I do this by identifying and examining the transnational communication methods Filipino migrant families use to develop intimacy, in other words familiarity, across borders. In my analysis, I address how political economy and gender shape the dynamics of transnational communication. By showing how economic conditions and gender shape transnational family communication, I provide a socially thick lens through which to understand the formation of transnational intimacy and emphasize how larger systems of inequality shape the lives of the children left behind by the global migration of women.     

The reporting of sensitive behavior by adolescents: A methodological experiment in Kenya

Does audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) produce more valid reporting of sexual activity and related behaviors than face-to-face interviews or self-administered interviews? This analysis, based on data collected from over 6,000 unmarried adolescents in two districts of Kenya—Nyeri and Kisumu—indicates substantial and significant differences in reported rates of premarital sex across interview modes, although not always in the expected direction. Our assumption that girls underreport sexual activity in face-to-face interviews by comparison with ACASI is not confirmed by the Nyeri data, but our results from Kisumu are considerably more promising. As for boys, who we believe exaggerate their level of sexual activity in face-to-face interviews, a more nuanced set of expectations regarding the reporting of sensitive behaviors was offered; our results from Kisumu, although not always significant, by and large conform to expectations.

     

Using the Medicare buy-in program to estimate the effect of Medicaid on SSI participation

This article assesses the importance of receiving supplemental health insurance on participation in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) for the elderly. The implementation of the Qualified Medicare Beneficiary (QMB) program offered a substitute for Medicaid, and expanded health insurance eligibility to a higher income level. Using a sample of elderly respondents aged 66 to 75, I find that the QMB program reduced SSI participation. More than half of the QMB participants were previously covered by SSI and Medicaid. The calculations suggest that the QMB program was not as expensive as it might first appear because of reductions in SSI expenditure.     

Homeward bound: the circular migration of entertainers between Japan and the Philippines

One feature of globalization is the growing number of temporary labour migrants, but their experience of settlement does not always fit the dominant perspective of transnational migration. Unlike transnational migrants, circular migrants tend not to be equally entrenched in home and host societies, but instead hold feelings of greater affinity for the home society. They engage in repeated short periods of work abroad, an example being migrant Filipina entertainers in Tokyo, Japan. This article describes the settlement of these circular migrants and demonstrates how it is a process of returning to the home society that entails limited integration in the host society; they are routinely segregated in time and space. Migrant Filipina entertainers start thinking about their departure almost as soon as they arrive, and their departure is marked by a carefully‐planned ceremony, or sayonara party. Questioning the assumption in the literature that circular migrants will eventually become permanent residents, in this article I call for the formulation of new theoretical frameworks that better capture the qualitatively distinct experiences of circular migrants.