A global count of the extreme poor in 2012: data issues,methodology and initial results

The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the World Bank’s international poverty line. In revising the line, we have sought to minimize changes to the real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs), so as to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the World Bank’s twin goals – which were set with respect to that line. In particular, the new line was obtained by inflating the same fifteen national poverty lines – originally used by Ravallion et al. (World Bank Econ. Rev. 23(2): 163–184 2009) to construct the $1.25 line – to 2011 prices in local currency units, and then converting them to US dollars using 2011 PPP conversion factors. With a small approximation, this procedure yields a new international poverty line of $1.90 per person per day. In combination with other changes described in the paper, this revision leads to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence for 2011: from 14.5 % using the old method to 14.1 % using the new method. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 % of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats and limitations of the approach taken.     

The FARSEEING real-world fall repository: a large-scale collaborative database to collect and share sensor signals from real-world falls

Background

Real-world fall events objectively measured by body-worn sensors can improve the understanding of fall events in older people. However, these events are rare and hence challenging to capture. Therefore, the FARSEEING (FAll Repository for the design of Smart and sElf-adaptive Environments prolonging Independent livinG) consortium and associated partners started to build up a meta-database of real-world falls.

Results

Between January 2012 and December 2015 more than 300 real-world fall events have been recorded. This is currently the largest collection of real-world fall data recorded with inertial sensors. A signal processing and fall verification procedure has been developed and applied to the data. Since the end of 2015, 208 verified real-world fall events are available for analyses. The fall events have been recorded within several studies, with different methods, and in different populations. All sensor signals include at least accelerometer measurements and 58 % additionally include gyroscope and magnetometer measurements. The collection of data is ongoing and open to further partners contributing with fall signals. The FARSEEING consortium also aims to share the collected real-world falls data with other researchers on request.

Conclusions

The FARSEEING meta-database will help to improve the understanding of falls and enable new approaches in fall risk assessment, fall prevention, and fall detection in both aging and disease.

     

A Spatial-temporal Model for Temperature with Seasonal Variance

We propose a spatial-temporal stochastic model for daily average surface temperature data. First, we build a model for a single spatial location, independently on the spatial information. The model includes trend, seasonality, and mean reversion, together with a seasonally dependent variance of the residuals. The spatial dependency is modelled by a Gaussian random field. Empirical fitting to data collected in 16 measurement stations in Lithuania over more than 40 years shows that our model captures the seasonality in the autocorrelation of the squared residuals, a property of temperature data already observed by other authors. We demonstrate through examples that our spatial-temporal model is applicable for prediction and classification.     

Foreign Direct Investment in the Caribbean

This article addresses the question of whether the Caribbean is particularly attractive or unattractive to foreign investors, and if it has specific characteristics that attract or deter FDI. An econometric analysis of data from 135 countries for 1980‐2002 shows that the Caribbean does not suffer from low inflows of FDI; on the contrary, Caribbean countries receive more FDI than comparable countries in other regions. This reflects two contradictory effects. On the one hand, FDI inflows may be particularly sensitive to political instability in the region; on the other hand, the absence of regulation appears to have been a particularly beneficial factor in attracting FDI to the Caribbean.     

Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York

In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind contracts, wind generated power, etc. Furthermore, we discuss some striking resemblances with temperature dynamics.     

Norway: relevance of the social development model for post-War welfare policy

This article examines the extent to which social policies in post-War Norway fit three key features of the social development model, namely productivism, social investment and universalism. The historical review shows that the pursuit of a social development model changes in line with economic development and the expansion of the welfare state. It reveals that policies to promote full employment have been central to the country's economic and welfare policies throughout the post-War period. Nevertheless, the extent to which the productivist objective has been emphasised and implemented has fluctuated over time. In contrast to the 1970s and 1980s, the 1990s witnessed a strengthening of the work ethic but also a continued commitment to de-commodification. The extent to which the combination of productivism and social investment is pursued is examined with reference to services for the insured and uninsured. The article concludes that the ways in which the social development perspective understands and defends universalism and social investment only partially applies to the mature Norwegian welfare state.     

Translating evidence into practice in childbirth: A case from the Occupied Palestinian Territory

ObjectiveTo investigate possible changes in practices during normal childbirth by implementing interventions which reduce the frequency of: intravenous fluids; bladder catheterization; analgesia; artificial rupture of membranes; oxytocin use for augmentation; vaginal examination; episiotomy, and increase: mobility; oral intake of fluids; and initiation of immediate breastfeeding.DesignAn operational research design.SettingA referral governmental hospital in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (oPt) between 2006 and 2010.Participants2345 women (baseline: 134 women, intervention: 1860 women, post-intervention: 351 women) and 17 providers (10 midwives and 7 physicians).InterventionsMultifaceted interventions; a combination of on-the-job training, audit, and feedback, supported by a core team and informal meetings.Main outcome measuresChange of practices during normal childbirth according to best evidence and the WHO recommendations.FindingsSignificant sustained improvements in practices during childbirth from baseline to post-intervention including artificial rupture of membranes, liberal use of oxytocin to augment normal labour, intravenous fluids, frequency of vaginal examinations, oral intake, immediate breastfeeding and routine episiotomy (P < 0.005). There was positive change in the mobility during labour, but this change was not sustained after 9 months from intervention to post-intervention. The usage of analgesia did not change.Key conclusionsCertain changes in practices during normal childbirth were possible in this hospital. A combination of on-the-job training with other interactive approaches increased midwives’ awareness, capacities and self-confidence to implement fewer interventions during normal labour.     

Was Hercules Happy? Some Answers from a Functional Model of Human Well-being

The article proposes a functional approach as a framework for the analysis of human well-being. The model posits that the adaptive role of hedonic feelings is to regulate stability and homeostasis in human systems, and that these feelings basically are created in states of equilibrium or assimilation. To regulate change and growth, a distinct set of feelings exists, which may be labeled eudaimonic feelings. Eudaimonic feelings are produced to motivate behavior in challenging environments, when a quick return to equilibrium is dysfunctional, or when accommodation of cognitive structures is needed for a stimulus or event to be perceived as meaningful. It was hypothesized that a trait-like concern for evaluation of outcomes in terms of goodness or badness, referred to as hedonic orientation, will moderate the relation between equilibrium/assimilation and hedonic feelings. The model also includes the concept of eudaimonic orientation, reflecting a stable tendency to get involved in challenging activities and to create and strive after demanding goals. It was hypothesized that a eudaimonic, and not a hedonic, orientation moderates hedonic feelings in challenging episodes. Three different studies gave empirical support to the model.     

The Efficiency of Simple and Counter-matched Nested Case-control Sampling

This paper presents a study of the performance of simple and counter-matched nested case-control sampling relative to a full cohort study. First we review methods for estimating the regression parameters and the integrated baseline hazard for Cox's proportional hazards model from cohort and case-control data. Then the asymptotic distributional properties of these estimators are recapitulated, and relative efficiency results are presented both for regression and baseline hazard estimation.