Unemployment Benefits and Employment Policies in the Presence of a Strong Trade Union: A Comparison

Abstract. The paper analyses, within a game theoretic approach, the consequences on private employment and real wages of a government policy of raising unemployment benefits following a fall in employment. The effects of such a policy are then compared with those arising from a more conventional demand policy. Under the policy regime described the reaction of the unions will cause, when the economy is hit by a negative shock on employment, a tendency for the real wage to rise and for private employment to decrease further. As far as the comparison of such policy with a policy of direct employment by the government is concerned we have reached the following conclusions. A policy based on unemployment benefit will give rise to a smaller increase in the real wage than a policy based on public employment if the change in the marginal utility of being employed due to change in the unemployment benefit is smaller than the utility that the union will obtain from an extra employed person. Moreover it appears that a policy based on unemployment benefits has a smaller negative effect on private employment, than a policy based on direct employment. if such a policy is adopted just after an employment benefits represent also a subsidy to the firms. We have shown that the effects on the real wage of the Policy rule considered are in this case stronger. The effects on employment depend on the relative strength of the union reaction and of the policy's supply side effects.     

Does work during childhood affect the health of Guatemalan adults?

The diversity of potential relationships between child labor and health makes the empirical disentanglement of the causal relationship a difficult exercise. This paper examines the long run impact of child labour on health by controlling for unobserved household specific characteristics. In order to control for the unobserved households specific effect, we estimate a conditional fixed effect model using data on siblings constructed from the Guatemalan National Survey of Living Condition. The estimation results reinforce the conventional wisdom that child labor is harmful for health in the long run. The results can be interpreted as a lower bound of the true impact since healthier children are most likely to offer themselves for employment and to be appointed. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of IMF and IMF policy.     

Women’s economic capacity and children’s human capital accumulation

Programs that increase the economic capacity of poor women can have cascading effects on children’s participation in school and work that are theoretically undetermined. We present a simple model to describe the possible channels through which these programs may affect children’s activities. Based on a cluster-randomized trial, we examine how a program providing capital and training to women in poor rural communities in Nicaragua affected children. Children in beneficiary households are more likely to attend school 1 year after the end of the intervention. An increase in women’s influence on household decisions appears to contribute to the program’s beneficial effect on school attendance.     

Neighborhood perceptions and parent outcomes in family based prevention programs for Thai adolescents: the role of program engagement

Due to concerns over Thai adolescent risky behaviors, effective prevention strategies are needed. Determining the role neighborhood context plays in program engagement and outcomes may inform these strategies. This study includes 170 mother-adolescent pairs (M = 13.44, SD = .52) in Bangkok, Thailand in a prevention program for adolescent substance use and sexual risk. Neighborhoods were related to engagement, which was critical to outcomes. Neighborhood disorganization was related to confidence in program effects and program completion. Completion was related to increased ATOD communication. Neighborhood cohesion was related to less program enjoyment, while neighborhood social control was related to more enjoyment. Enjoyment was related to increased ATOD communication and formation and monitoring of alcohol rules. Prevention strategies should focus on neighborhood contexts and enhancing engagement.     

The impact of HIV/AIDS on social security contributions: The case of Zimbabwe

Significant early retirement from work due to HIV/AIDS-related illness is reducing the gainfully employed population and threatening the viability of the statutory social security schemes run by the National Social Security Authority in Zimbabwe. The economy has been in recession for a decade, with high inflation and significant job losses also impacting negatively on contributions to the National Pension and Other Benefits Scheme (NPOBS), and government imposes ceilings on insurable earnings from which contributions are drawn. There are currently no consistent strategies to mitigate attritional effects of these factors on the social security schemes. The aim of this study was to prospectively project the potential impact of HIV/AIDS and imposed ceilings on NPOBS revenue in the presence of high inflation. It was found that HIV/AIDS will reduce projected contributions to the scheme by more than 30 per cent by 2030. Policy strategies to adjust and frequently review levels of growth of imposed ceilings on insurable earnings in line with inflation growth and to invest in HIV/AIDS prevention could be adopted to ameliorate the negative impact of HIV/AIDS and/or ceiling caps on social security contributions in Zimbabwe.     

Cohesion and Enmeshment Revisited: Differentiation,Identity, and Well‐Being in Two European Cultures

We examined the nature and implications of family differentiation among adolescents facing a life transition in 2 European countries with differing family cultures. One hundred and twenty‐four Italian and 109 U.K. adolescents completed measures of family differentiation (cohesion and enmeshment), identity threat (perception of threat to the self associated with finishing school), life satisfaction, depressive symptoms, and anxiety. Confirmatory factor analyses showed that cohesion and enmeshment were distinguishable in both countries, orthogonal in the U.K. but positively correlated in Italy. Family cohesion was associated with better psychological well‐being in both countries; enmeshment was associated with poorer psychological well‐being in the U.K. but not in Italy. Structural equation models showed that effects on well‐being were fully mediated by identity threat in both cultures.     

Estimating the turning point location in shifted exponential model of time series

We consider the distribution of the turning point location of time series modeled as the sum of deterministic trend plus random noise. If the variables are modeled by shifted exponentials, whose location parameters define the trend, we provide a formula for computing the distribution of the turning point location and consequently to estimate a confidence interval for the location. We test this formula in simulated data series having a trend with asymmetric minimum, investigating the coverage rate as a function of a bandwidth parameter. The method is applied to estimate the confidence interval of the minimum location of two types of real-time series: the RT intervals extracted from the electrocardiogram recorded during the exercise test and an economic indicator, the current account balance. We discuss the connection with stochastic ordering.