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1.
Joshua Goldstein 《Journal of historical sociology》1998,11(2):153-184
This paper examines how the Chinese state's prenatal health care campaigns of the early 1950s attempted to redefine women's social and political roles. The replacement of local midwifing practices with a uniform birthing method in order to radically reduce infant and mother mortality entailed complex ramifications regarding the relationship of women vis-a-vis the state. Campaigns involved demonizing "traditional" midwifing, promoting a statistical vision of female reproductivity and children as national resources, and the isolation of individual mothers as directly responsible to the state for managing reproduction for the national interest. In sum, a physiological definition of gender was used to open women's bodies to state management. Utopic visions of painless childbirth and of the socialist nation as a giant new family were used to promote participation in grassroots campaigns, but the sources also point to forms of local resistance to the micro-level reorganization of power these campaigns intended. 相似文献
2.
M. Yang H. Goldstein & A. Heath 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》1999,163(1):49-62
Models for fitting longitudinal binary responses are explored by using a panel study of voting intentions. A standard multilevel repeated measures logistic model is shown to be inadequate owing to a substantial proportion of respondents who maintain a constant response over time. A multivariate binary response model is shown to be a better fit to the data. 相似文献
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A stepwise variable selection procedure for multinomial discrimination is presented and discussed. Based upon the work of Kullback and Hills, stopping rules are proposed and illustrated for a set of data on communication buyer behavior. 相似文献
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George Leckie Harvey Goldstein 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2009,172(4):835-851
Summary. In England, so-called 'league tables' based on examination results and test scores are published annually, ostensibly to inform parental choice of secondary schools. A crucial limitation of these tables is that the most recent published information is based on the current performance of a cohort of pupils who entered secondary schools several years earlier, whereas for choosing a school it is the future performance of the current cohort that is of interest. We show that there is substantial uncertainty in predicting such future performance and that incorporating this uncertainty leads to a situation where only a handful of schools' future performances can be separated from both the overall mean and from one another with an acceptable degree of precision. This suggests that school league tables, including value-added tables, have very little to offer as guides to school choice. 相似文献
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This paper concerns the geometric treatment of graphical models using Bayes linear methods. We introduce Bayes linear separation as a second order generalised conditional independence relation, and Bayes linear graphical models are constructed using this property. A system of interpretive and diagnostic shadings are given, which summarise the analysis over the associated moral graph. Principles of local computation are outlined for the graphical models, and an algorithm for implementing such computation over the junction tree is described. The approach is illustrated with two examples. The first concerns sales forecasting using a multivariate dynamic linear model. The second concerns inference for the error variance matrices of the model for sales, and illustrates the generality of our geometric approach by treating the matrices directly as random objects. The examples are implemented using a freely available set of object-oriented programming tools for Bayes linear local computation and graphical diagnostic display. 相似文献
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Joshua R. Goldstein Tomáš Sobotka Aiva Jasilioniene 《Population and development review》2009,35(4):663-699
Total fertility rates fell to previously unseen levels in a large number of countries beginning in the early 1990s. The persistence of TFRs below 1.3 raised the possibility of rapid population aging and decline. We discuss the recent widespread turnaround in so‐called lowest‐low‐fertility countries in Europe and East Asia. The number of countries with TFRs below 1.3 fell from 21 in 2003 to five in 2008. Moreover, the upturn in the TFR was not confined to lowest‐fertility countries, but affected the whole developed world. We explore the demographic explanations for the recent rise in TFRs stemming from fertility timing effects as well as economic, policy, and social factors. Although the current economic downturn may suppress TFRs in the short run, we conclude that formerly lowest‐low‐fertility countries will continue to see increases in fertility as the transitory effects of shifts to later childbearing become less important. 相似文献
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Motivating Action and Maintaining Change: The Time‐Varying Role of Homework Following a Brief Couples' Intervention 下载免费PDF全文
Matt Hawrilenko C. J. Eubanks Fleming Alana S. Goldstein James V. Cordova 《Journal of marital and family therapy》2016,42(3):396-408
Studies regarding the effectiveness of homework assignments in cognitive‐behavioral treatments have demonstrated mixed results. This study investigated predictors of compliance with homework recommendations and the time‐varying relationship of recommendation completion with treatment response in a brief couples' intervention (N = 108). More satisfied couples and couples with more motivation to change completed more recommendations, whereas couples with children completed fewer. The association between recommendation completion and treatment response varied with the passage of time, with the strongest effect observed 6 months after the intervention, but no discernible differences at 1 year postintervention. Couples that completed more recommendations experienced more rapid treatment gains, but even those couples doing substantially fewer recommendations ultimately realized equivalent treatment effects, although they progressed more slowly. Implications are discussed. 相似文献