Trajectories of Unintended Fertility

Having an unintended birth is strongly associated with the likelihood of having later unintended births. We use detailed longitudinal data from the Add Health Study (N = 8300) to investigate whether a host of measured sociodemographic, personality, and psychosocial characteristics select women into this “trajectory” of unintended childbearing. While some measured characteristics and aspects of the unfolding life course are related to unintended childbearing, explicitly modeling these effects does not greatly attenuate the association of an unintended birth with a subsequent one. Next, we statistically control for unmeasured time-invariant covariates that affect all birth intervals, and again find that the association of an unintended birth with subsequent ones remains strong. This persistent, strong association may be the direct result of experiencing an earlier unintended birth. We propose several mechanisms that might explain this strong association.     

Contraceptive determinants in three leading countries

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relative importance of access to family planning and the motivation to restrict fertility in determining contraceptive use in three countries that have led the fertility transitions in their regions: Colombia, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe. A structural equations model is estimated where endogenous fertility intentions are allowed to affect contraceptive method use. Simulation methods are then used to quantify the size of the impact of intentions and access on method choice for the three countries. The results demonstrate that even after controlling for fertility intentions, family planning program variables still have important effects in all three countries.     

Breastfeeding Patterns and Determinants in the Near East: An Analysis for Four Countries

Few detailed studies of the determinants of breastfeeding behaviour have been carried out, especially in the Middle East. We provide a comparative investigation of patterns and determinants of breastfeeding in four Middle East countries (Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and Yemen) based on WFS data. Differences in factors influencing ever-breastfeeding, continuing breastfeeding from very short to moderate durations, and extending breastfeeding into the second year are observed, indicating ‘structural shifts’ in the determinants of breastfeeding. Differences between countries are also found which can only roughly be associated with differences in modernization and urbanization. Lack of consistently negative effects of women's education and work status variables is attributed to the extremely low levels of both in the region. Interesting results are observed regarding effects of pill use and sex of child (boys being breastfed longer), suggesting the need for thorough studies to explain these findings further.     

Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway

Both sociological and economic theories posit that widely available, high-quality, and affordable child care should have pronatalist effects. Yet to date, the empirical evidence has not consistently supported this hypothesis. We argue that this previous empirical work has been plagued by the inability to control for endogenous placement of day care centers and the possibility that people migrate to take advantage of the availability of child care facilities. Using Norwegian register data and a statistically defensible fixed-effects model, we find strong positive effects of day care availability on the transition to motherhood.     

Community and contraceptive choice in rural Thailand: A case study of Nang Rong

This paper blends quantitative with qualitative data in an investigation of community and contraceptive choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. Specifically, it develops an explanation of 1) method dominance within villages, coupled with 2) marked differences between villages in the popularity of particular methods. The quantitative analysis demonstrates the importance of village location and placement of family planning services for patterns of contraceptive choice. The qualitative data provide a complementary perspective, emphasizing the importance of social as well as physical space and giving particular attention to the structure of conversational networks.     

The family building life course and contraceptive use: Nang Rong, Thailand

This paper incorporates the insights of the life course perspective in an examination of the determinants of contraceptive use. It views decision-making about contraceptive methods in the context of personal history and the broader social setting. Three stages in the reproductive life course of married women are considered. In the early years, timing decisions dominate. Contraception is used to delay the first birth and control the tempo of fertility. Mid-career, the major concern is whether to have a sterilizing operation. Towards the end of the fecund period, couples must decide when to stop using contraception, given that they have not already opted for sterilization. We examine choice among nonpermanent methods, as well as sterilization, in the context of a theoretical model that explicitly recognizes the permanence of the sterilization decision. Our statistical procedures control for unobserved community influences. The data are from Nang Rong district, Thailand, a relatively poor area near the Cambodian border under going substantial socioeconomic change during the 1980s. Our results clearly show variation in method choice over the reproductive life course, and variation in the effects of specific determinants including age of husband and wife, living arrangements, and village location. They also demonstrate gains in the understanding of any particular stage in the life course that accrue from an integrated examination of all of them.     

The determinants of fertility in rural Peru: Program effects in the early years of the national family planning program

Using data from the 1991 Peru Demographic Health Survey, a linked Situation Analysis, and a unique region-level data set, this paper examines the determinants of fertility in rural Peru before and after the 1985 enactment of its National Policy on Population. The empirical framework combines a model of the timing and spacing of conceptions with a model of the timing of the placement of family planning services in communities in order to control for non-random placement of services. Results show the program helped reduce fertility post 1985. The magnitude of the effects is quantified with simulations. All correspondence to David Guilkey.We thank the editor and two referees for detailed comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Funding support for this project was provided by the MEASURE Evaluation Project under a Cooperative Agreement between the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Carolina Population Center (Number HRN-A-00-97-0018-00). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not the sponsoring agency. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The Educational Consequences of Teen Childbearing

A huge literature shows that teen mothers face a variety of detriments across the life course, including truncated educational attainment. To what extent is this association causal? The estimated effects of teen motherhood on schooling vary widely, ranging from no discernible difference to 2.6 fewer years among teen mothers. The magnitude of educational consequences is therefore uncertain, despite voluminous policy and prevention efforts that rest on the assumption of a negative and presumably causal effect. This study adjudicates between two potential sources of inconsistency in the literature—methodological differences or cohort differences—by using a single, high-quality data source: namely, The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. We replicate analyses across four different statistical strategies: ordinary least squares regression; propensity score matching; and parametric and semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation. Results demonstrate educational consequences of teen childbearing, with estimated effects between 0.7 and 1.9 fewer years of schooling among teen mothers. We select our preferred estimate (0.7), derived from semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation, on the basis of weighing the strengths and limitations of each approach. Based on the range of estimated effects observed in our study, we speculate that variable statistical methods are the likely source of inconsistency in the past. We conclude by discussing implications for future research and policy, and recommend that future studies employ a similar multimethod approach to evaluate findings.     

Effect of childbearing on Filipino women's work hours and earnings

The effects of childbearing and work sector on women's hours and earnings in the 8 years following an index pregnancy were examined in a cohort of more than 2,000 women in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Change in cash earnings and hours worked were each modeled jointly with sector of labor force participation using an estimation strategy that deals with endogeneity of childbearing decisions and selectivity into sector of work. Two or more additional children born in the 8 year interval significantly reduced women's earnings, while having an additional child under 2 years of age in 1991 reduced hours worked. Received: 16 July 1998/Accepted: 22 March 2001 All correspondence to Linda Adair. The authors wish to thank Family Health International and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for their generous support. This publication was funded by USAID under Cooperative Agreement USAID/CCP-3060-A-00-3021-00 to Family Health International (FHI). David Guilkey's participation in this paper was also supported by the MEASURE Evaluation Project also with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Contract Number HRN-A-00-97-00018-00. The conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the policies of FHI or USAID. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.