How Many More Missing Women? Excess Female Mortality and Prenatal Sex Selection, 1970–2050

Sex‐based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.     

Spatial Patterns of Fertility Transition in Indian Districts

The article explores the dynamics of Indian fertility at the district level using a child‐woman index developed from the four Indian censuses, 1961 to 1991. It employs statistical and geostatistical techniques to assess fertility change across districts and periods. Fertility decline is evident in every region, but sizable regional differentials exist. A cluster analysis of fertility profiles indicates that a clear spatial pattern of fertility in India has emerged and the pattern intensified because of the process of fertility decline.     

Son preference, sex selection, and kinship in Vietnam

This article examines the recent rise in the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam and relates its emergence to kinship systems and ethnic composition using 2009 census micro-data. Presentation of the main socioeconomic and ethnic differentials in birth masculinity is followed by a review of the three intermediate factors leading to increases in the sex ratio at birth: prenatal technology, declining fertility, and gender bias. An indirect measurement of fertility behavior is used to demonstrate the close association between levels of the sex ratio at birth and the intensity of son preference. Data on household composition indicate that Vietnam is characterized by the co-existence of kinship patterns typical of East and Southeast Asia. Son preference in Vietnam is found to be related to the prevalence of more traditional patrilineal systems. The article concludes by considering the implications of the cultural dimensions of prenatal sex selection for policy responses and for the likely future change in the sex ratio at birth.     

Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.     

Gender bias in reproductive behaviour in Georgia,Indonesia, and Vietnam: An application of the own-children method

I present a method for estimating indicators of gender bias in reproductive behaviour, using microdata based on the own-children method. The method is first tested on a large sample from India with both birth history and household records. I then apply the method to Georgia, Indonesia, and Vietnam. My estimates demonstrate that the proportion of Georgian couples expressing a preference for sons in their fertility behaviour closely corresponds to the proportion resorting to sex selection at high parities. I show how individual Indonesian provinces provide examples of both son and daughter preference. The method also allows me to date the onset of sex imbalances at birth in Vietnam. The approach based on the own-children method therefore provides a unique tool for estimating the diversity and intensity of gender bias in reproductive behaviour.     

On the estimation of female births missing due to prenatal sex selection

This research note is prompted by a paper by Kashyap (Is prenatal sex selection associated with lower female child mortality? Population Studies 73(1): 57–78). Kashyap’s paper, which provides 40 original estimates of missing female births, relies on an alternative definition of missing female births, leading to estimates of about half the magnitude of other estimates. There appears, therefore, a real need to take stock of the concept of missing female births widely used by statisticians around the world for assessing the demographic consequences of prenatal sex selection. This research note starts with a brief review of the history of the concept and the difference between Amartya Sen’s original method and the alternative method found elsewhere to compute missing female births. We then put forward three different arguments (deterministic and probabilistic approaches, and consistency analysis) in support of the original computation procedure based on the number of observed male births and the expected sex ratio at birth.     

Mapping the diversity of gender preferences and sex imbalances in Indonesia in 2010

Indonesia is usually viewed as a country free of the acute forms of gender discrimination observed elsewhere in East or South Asia, a situation often ascribed to Indonesia's bilateral kinship system. I re-examine this hypothesis by focusing on ethnic and regional variations in sex differentials. New indicators of marriage practices and gender bias derived from 2010 census microdata highlight the presence of patrilocal patterns as well as a distinct presence of son preference in fertility behaviour in many parts of the archipelago. I also present evidence for excessive child sex ratios and excess mortality of females in some areas that appear to be related to son preference and patrilocal residence systems. The findings confirm the association between son preference, sex differentials in mortality, prenatal sex selection, and kinship systems. I conclude with a more regional perspective on demographic vulnerability of females, distinguishing bilateral South East Asia from more patrilineal Melanesia.     

The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia

This article adopts a comparative perspective to review the recent increase in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) across Asia. It first describes and compares the most recent birth statistics in Asia in order to identify commonalities in the gradual rise of SRBs observed from Armenia to South Korea. This comparison provides the basis for identifying specific transition patterns in the changes in SRBs. Their recent rise is then interpreted in a social and historical framework borrowed from fertility decline and based on three preconditions: access to sex‐selection technology, preference for male births, and pressure from low fertility. On a broader plane, the process of growing imbalances in the sex composition of the population gives rise to a tragedy of the commons. This article indicates the factors that appear most likely to trigger a turnaround in this transitional demographic situation and to facilitate a return to biologically normal sex ratios in the future.