Is aboriginal fertility on the decline?

This paper examines if there has been sustained Aboriginal fertility decline since the mid-1980s, as expected in previous studies (Gray 1983, 1990; Jain 1989), by analysing fertility information obtained from the 1994 National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey, birth registrations and midwives’ collections data by states. Although two studies (Gray and Tesfaghiorghis 1993:87–90; Dugbaza 1994) refuted this expectation, the results are questionable because of the unreliability of the data on which the estimates were based and the lack of fertility information. This study has produced more reliable age patterns of fertility at the national and state levels. The paper also examines the definition of Aboriginality and associated measurement problems, which are central to an understanding of Aboriginal demography.     

Aboriginal population prospects

Data from the 1991 Census largely confirm earlier projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population, although the data for Torres Strait Islanders are markedly inconsistent with previous counts. The 1986 and 1991 Censuses mark the first intercensal period for decades for which Aboriginal population counts have been consistent. This provides an opportunity, taken in this paper, to examine closely the discrepancies between projections and the 1991 Census and to comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects, because of the occurrence in the 1991 Census of a higher than expected sex ratio and differences between projections and counts for certain age groups. We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s.     

The uses and users of population projections in Australia

It is widely recognized that population projections are increasingly used in formulating policy in many public and private sectors. However, little information exists on the nature of the projections or their users. This paper reports the results of a survey conducted to rectify this situation. The results confirm that the applications of projections are very broad and that the prime area of increase has been in small-area projections. At this level many users make their own projections rather than use official projections and the paper reviews the methodology used to make these projections. A number of suggestions are made for improving communication between national and subnational producers and local users. We would like to thank the Australian Population Association, and in particular the Secretary, Dianne Rudd, for providing us with address labels of members of the Association. We would also like to thank the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in particular Shail Jain, for advice on the development of the questionnaire. The comments of the two anonymous referees were very helpful. Finally we wish to thank our respondents for their co-operation, and especially those who wrote to encourage us in this work.