Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

‘A Chance to Stand Back’: Parenting Programmes for Parents of Adolescents

Parenting interventions were an important feature of New Labour’s policies to combat social exclusion. This paper critically examines parenting programmes for families with adolescents, assessing national and local policy aims against the perspectives of women who took part in a parenting course, which was the subject of a local evaluation. The paper argues that, while there were important positive outcomes for the participants, the high levels of unmet need which women reported reflect important disparities between the aims of the intervention, the level of service provision, and the needs and concerns of mothers and grandmothers.     

Understanding foraging flexibility in urban vervet monkeys,Chlorocebus pygerythrus,for the benefit of human-wildlife coexistence

Urban Ecosystems - Generalist wildlife species often thrive in urban environments because of increased anthropogenic resources. However, human-wildlife interactions, especially if negative, raise...     

The Implicit Curriculum: Student Engagement and the Role of Social Media

This article presents results from an exploratory study conducted as a component of an assessment of the implicit curriculum in one master’s-level social work program. Web-based surveys were used to collect data from 80 graduate social work students in online and face-to-face programs. Findings indicate students who perceived social media as more useful reported higher levels of engagement and participation in program governance. The implications for social work education deal with the ability to competently use social media as a tool to increase student engagement. Students will only be exposed to elements of the implicit curriculum if they are active participants in their academic environments.     

The time‐dependent “cure‐death” model investigating two equally important endpoints simultaneously in trials treating high‐risk patients with resistant pathogens

A variety of primary endpoints are used in clinical trials treating patients with severe infectious diseases, and existing guidelines do not provide a consistent recommendation. We propose to study simultaneously two primary endpoints, cure and death, in a comprehensive multistate cure‐death model as starting point for a treatment comparison. This technique enables us to study the temporal dynamic of the patient‐relevant probability to be cured and alive. We describe and compare traditional and innovative methods suitable for a treatment comparison based on this model. Traditional analyses using risk differences focus on one prespecified timepoint only. A restricted logrank‐based test of treatment effect is sensitive to ordered categories of responses and integrates information on duration of response. The pseudo‐value regression provides a direct regression model for examination of treatment effect via difference in transition probabilities. Applied to a topical real data example and simulation scenarios, we demonstrate advantages and limitations and provide an insight into how these methods can handle different kinds of treatment imbalances. The cure‐death model provides a suitable framework to gain a better understanding of how a new treatment influences the time‐dynamic cure and death process. This might help the future planning of randomised clinical trials, sample size calculations, and data analyses.     

Reliability of professional judgments in forensic child sexual abuse evaluations: unsettled or unsettling science?

In the absence of photographic or DNA evidence, a credible eyewitness, or perpetrator confession, forensic evaluators in cases of alleged child sexual abuse must rely on psychosocial or "soft" evidence, often requiring substantial professional judgment for case determination. This article offers a three-part rebuttal to Herman's (2009 ) argument that forensic decisions based on psychosocial evidence are fundamentally unreliable and that this conclusion represents settled science. The article also discusses the potentially adverse consequences of Herman's proposed reforms to forensic practice on child protection and prosecution efforts.     

Parent–Child Positive Touch: Gender,Age, and Task Differences

This study examined gender, age, and task differences in positive touch and physical proximity during mother–child and father–child conversations. Sixty-five Spanish mothers and fathers and their 4- (M = 53.50 months, SD = 3.54) and 6-year-old (M = 77.07 months, SD = 3.94) children participated in this study. Positive touch was examined during a play-related storytelling task and a reminiscence task (conversation about past emotions). Fathers touched their children positively more frequently during the play-related storytelling task than did mothers. Both mothers and fathers were in closer proximity to their 6-year-olds than their 4-year-olds. Mothers and fathers touched their children positively more frequently when reminiscing than when playing. Finally, 6-year-olds remained closer to their parents than did 4-year-olds. Implications of these findings for future research on children’s socioemotional development are discussed.     

Imputation procedures for categorical data: their effects on the goodness-of-fit chi-square statistic

An imputation procedure is a procedure by which each missing value in a data set is replaced (imputed) by an observed value using a predetermined resampling procedure. The distribution of a statistic computed from a data set consisting of observed and imputed values, called a completed data set, is affecwd by the imputation procedure used. In a Monte Carlo experiment, three imputation procedures are compared with respect to the empirical behavior of the goodness-of- fit chi-square statistic computed from a completed data set. The results show that each imputation procedure affects the distribution of the goodness-of-fit chi-square statistic in 3. different manner. However, when the empirical behavior of the goodness-of-fit chi-square statistic is compared u, its appropriate asymptotic distribution, there are no substantial differences between these imputation procedures.     

Children Selectively Trust Individuals Who Have Imitated Them

We investigated the influence of being imitated on children's subsequent trust. Five‐ to six‐year‐olds interacted with one experimenter who mimicked their choices and another experimenter who made different choices. Children were then presented with two tests. In a preference test, the experimenters offered conflicting preferences for the contents of two opaque boxes, and children were asked to choose a box. In a factual claims test, the experimenters offered conflicting claims about the referent for a novel word, and children were asked to state which object the word referred to. Children were significantly more likely to endorse both the preferences and the factual claims of the experimenter who had mimicked them. These results demonstrate that imitation is a powerful means of social influence in development.