Creating a reference to a complex emergency situation using time series methods: war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999

Impacts of complex emergencies or relief interventions have often been evaluated by absolute mortality compared to international standardized mortality rates. A better evaluation would be to compare with local baseline mortality of the affected populations. A projection of population-based survival data into time of emergency or intervention based on information from before the emergency may create a local baseline reference. We find a log-transformed Gaussian time series model where standard errors of the estimated rates are included in the variance to have the best forecasting capacity. However, if time-at-risk during the forecasted period is known then forecasting might be done using a Poisson time series model with overdispersion. Whatever, the standard error of the estimated rates must be included in the variance of the model either in an additive form in a Gaussian model or in a multiplicative form by overdispersion in a Poisson model. Data on which the forecasting is based must be modelled carefully concerning not only calendar-time trends but also periods with excessive frequency of events (epidemics) and seasonal variations to eliminate residual autocorrelation and to make a proper reference for comparison, reflecting changes over time during the emergency. Hence, when modelled properly it is possible to predict a reference to an emergency-affected population based on local conditions. We predicted childhood mortality during the war in Guinea-Bissau 1998-1999. We found an increased mortality in the first half-year of the war and a mortality corresponding to the expected one in the last half-year of the war.     

Danish and Norwegian hospital social workers’ cross-institutional work amidst inter-sectoral restructuring of health and social welfare

Starting in the 2000s, Denmark and Norway have undergone extensive restructuring of their health-related social benefit programmes, including how they are governed. Several reforms have sought to enhance inter-sectoral collaboration. Aiming at ensuring patients’ faster return to work, policy-makers have instituted economic incentives to both individuals and the health and welfare organisations who handle them. Through an institutional logics approach, this paper explores how hospital social workers in these countries are experiencing these changes. The ‘social’ part of post-treatment care and rehabilitation receives more attention in the Norwegian institutional set-up than in the Danish, and whilst challenges are experienced in both countries, in group interviews Danish social workers in particular express concerns about the implications of the accelerated return-to-work focus. In both countries, they report increasing difficulties in ‘making their way through’ the state-municipal bureaucracy. However, by drawing on the formal health knowledge derived from medical settings and the symbolic capital it bestows on them, they often manage to negotiate the work-and-welfare services, thereby transforming the social context for the patients.     

Asymptotic Theory of Outlier Detection Algorithms for Linear Time Series Regression Models

Outlier detection algorithms are intimately connected with robust statistics that down‐weight some observations to zero. We define a number of outlier detection algorithms related to the Huber‐skip and least trimmed squares estimators, including the one‐step Huber‐skip estimator and the forward search. Next, we review a recently developed asymptotic theory of these. Finally, we analyse the gauge, the fraction of wrongly detected outliers, for a number of outlier detection algorithms and establish an asymptotic normal and a Poisson theory for the gauge.     

Bootstrap Testing of Hypotheses on Co‐Integration Relations in Vector Autoregressive Models

It is well known that the finite‐sample properties of tests of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors in vector autoregressive models can be quite poor, and that current solutions based on Bartlett‐type corrections or bootstrap based on unrestricted parameter estimators are unsatisfactory, in particular in those cases where also asymptotic χ² tests fail most severely. In this paper, we solve this inference problem by showing the novel result that a bootstrap test where the null hypothesis is imposed on the bootstrap sample is asymptotically valid. That is, not only does it have asymptotically correct size, but, in contrast to what is claimed in existing literature, it is consistent under the alternative. Compared to the theory for bootstrap tests on the co‐integration rank (Cavaliere, Rahbek, and Taylor, 2012), establishing the validity of the bootstrap in the framework of hypotheses on the co‐integrating vectors requires new theoretical developments, including the introduction of multivariate Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes with random (reduced rank) drift parameters. Finally, as documented by Monte Carlo simulations, the bootstrap test outperforms existing methods.     

Species richness in urban parks and its drivers: A review of empirical evidence

There is growing recognition of urban areas as hosts for innovative ways to conserve and promote biodiversity. Parks, as one specific type of urban green space, constitute particularly important biodiversity hotspots in the cityscape. We reviewed empirical findings on the species richness in urban parks across all species groups that have been studied. The aim was to assess and discuss the overall species richness of urban parks, its community attributes and drivers. Search and subsequent selection process resulted in 62 papers from 25 different countries. For all examined species groups, the findings consistently show that parks are among the most species rich types of urban green spaces, but also that exotics constitute large shares, especially of plant species. Key ecological theories like the gradient approach and the island habitat ecological theory, and fundamental ecological relationships such as the species-area relationship are valid despite the manipulated ‘nature’ of parks and the surrounding urban matrix. Most studies surveyed large number of parks and applied ‘multi-scale’ approaches in tests of confounding variables, providing methodological strength. While matrix effects are consistently found to affect species richness negatively, the diversity of habitats and microhabitat heterogeneity contained in urban parks appears as the most decisive factor for the overall species richness. However, a constraint of research to date is the limitation of individual studies to one or a few species groups, rarely bridging between flora and fauna. Adopting ‘multi-species group’ approaches in future research is needed to further advance the understanding of the overall biodiversity of urban parks, and its drivers.     

Empowered and self-managing users in methadone treatment?

Empowerment is a keyword in treatment. Users should have the means and possibilities to influence their treatment and become self-managing. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in a Danish methadone treatment project, we find that the practices of users and staff are often not carried out in accordance with governmental intentions. We identify a gap between the official notions of treatment and practices. We analyse the notions and practices of empowerment by applying two analytical perspectives. First, we apply a constructionist perspective in which empowerment is analysed as wanting to set users ‘free’ but also as ways to govern. We elaborate the analysis by applying a more practice-oriented focus. Drawing on this perspective, we analyse the ways in which staff and users constantly produce, construct and negotiate institutional practices that differ from the governmental intentions for treatment.