Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities

With the widespread availability of event-history data, demographers have increasingly eschewed registration-system data in favor of survey data. We propose instead using survey and registration-system data in combination, via a constrained maximum-likelihood framework for demographic hazard modeling. As an application, we combine panel survey data and birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity. The general fertility rate obtained from registration-system data constrains the weighted sum of parity-specific birth probabilities. The variances about the parity-specific birth probabilities are halved when registration-system data are used to constrain the estimates. Other demographic applications are discussed.     

大开眼界看朝阳

<正>来中国留学已经一段时间了,去过的地方也不少,可是给我留下最深印象的却是一个很多人都不知道的城市——辽宁的朝阳。在辽宁生活的时间里,我一直觉得辽宁是一个很普通没有什么吸引力的地方。但参加了沈阳师范大学特色班的"留学生辽宁文化考察活动"以后,我忽然发现,原来在这