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To ascertain the viability of a project, undertake resource allocation, take part in bidding processes, and other related decisions, modern project management requires forecasting techniques for cost, duration, and performance of a project, not only under normal circumstances, but also under external events that might abruptly change the status quo. We provide a Bayesian framework that provides a global forecast of a project's performance. We aim at predicting the probabilities and impacts of a set of potential scenarios caused by combinations of disruptive events, and using this information to deal with project management issues. To introduce the methodology, we focus on a project's cost, but the ideas equally apply to project duration or performance forecasting. We illustrate our approach with an example based on a real case study involving estimation of the uncertainty in project cost while bidding for a contract. 相似文献
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Jesus de Felipe-Redondo 《Social history》2016,41(4):396-416
Focusing on the Spanish case, this article addresses two fundamental questions: why were many unionized workers sceptical about state intervention in labour issues throughout the nineteenth century, and why did this attitude begin to change from the 1860s onwards? Its main thesis is that workers’ attitudes derived ultimately from different historical notions of ‘society’ that shaped their perceptions and experiences of labour relations and their attitude toward the role of the state. Thus, a notion of society as an aggregation of individuals shaped unionized Spanish workers’ hostility toward state intervention since the creation of the first unions in the 1840s. From the 1860s onward, a new conception of collective relations, namely ‘the social’, began to transform some workers’ expectations of the role of the state in labour conflicts. The main factor that explains this change, it is argued, lies in the relationship between the workers’ imaginary, their actions, and their expectations about these actions. 相似文献
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Sebastian HauptmeierA. Jesus Sanchez-Fuentes Ludger Schuknecht 《Journal of Policy Modeling》2011,33(4):597
The study demonstrates the key role of expenditure policies in explaining fiscal developments during EMU in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries. It compares actual primary expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on expenditure rules since the start of EMU. Moreover, the implications for debt trends are calculated. Results show that all sample countries except Germany applied expansionary expenditure policies already before the crisis. Consequently, expenditure and debt paths were much higher compared to a counterfactual neutral expenditure stance. Rule-based expenditure policies could have led to much safer fiscal positions much more in line with the EU's Stability and Growth Pact. An empirical analysis of the determinants of countries’ expenditure stance confirms the need for stronger fiscal rules and institutions in the euro area. 相似文献
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This paper performs an assessment and imputation of the benefits produced to the individuals and households well-being by the public services provision. This analysis is very relevant in the current framework of economic crisis of the European economies. Although most of the papers in the literature compare countries, decentralization processes are included in this paper by accounting the effect of public expenditure on regional health care and education upon the levels of inequality and rates of poverty in each Spanish region. This case is relevant because of the high decentralization degree of the Spanish political structure and the persistent regional disparities. The results show a clear downward tendency in both phenomena following imputation, although education shows a greater impact. Furthermore, a decomposition, used in this context for the first time, of the effects shows the very relevant redistributive effect of this public expenditure. 相似文献
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Pablo Martínez-Camblor Norberto Corral Jesus María de la Hera 《Journal of applied statistics》2013,40(1):76-87
Missing data are present in almost all statistical analysis. In simple paired design tests, when some subject has one of the involved variables missing in the so-called partially overlapping samples scheme, it is usually discarded for the analysis. The lack of consistency between the information reported in the univariate and multivariate analysis is, perhaps, the main consequence. Although the randomness on the missing mechanism (missingness completely at random) is an usual and needed assumption for this particular situation, missing data presence could lead to serious inconsistencies on the reported conclusions. In this paper, the authors develop a simple and direct procedure which allows using the whole available information in order to perform paired tests. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to check the equality among the means from two paired samples. In addition, the use of two different resampling techniques is also explored. Finally, real-world data are analysed. 相似文献
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Jesus Casquete 《Journal of historical sociology》2021,34(4):624-639
The Storm Section (Sturmabteilung, or SA) was organized throughout the Weimar Republic as a paramilitary force entrusted with the ‘fight for the streets’ during the so-called ‘time of struggle’ (Kampfzeit). To offset the potentially paralyzing effects of activism entailing risks of injury or death, the leaders of the movement devised and implemented an insurance system, which was retained throughout the following years. This insurance system smoothed the way for the most radical uncivility to hold sway without restriction during the final years of the Republic. Starting from late 1926, the National Socialist mechanism for overcoming the barriers to participation in violent activities that could potentially involve a high cost was to introduce an insurance system to facilitate their activists' willingness to ‘sacrifice’ themselves. The visceral anti-Semitism of the Nazis was central to the negotiations and agreements reached with different insurers. The Nazis introduced an insurance policy for their activists that would cover them while carrying out their obligations as militants in the ‘fight’ against Social Democrats and, more often, Communists. By lowering the potential costs of participation in a high-risk instance of activism, the insurance system contributed to stoking a ‘latent civil war’ in the German streets during the final years of the Republic. Relaying on archival and other primary sources and looking at them from a collective action perspective, this paper delves into the history of the SA insurance system, as well as on its functions. 相似文献
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Martín Tanco Elisabeth Viles Maria Jesus Álvarez Laura Ilzarbe 《Journal of applied statistics》2010,37(12):1961-1977
An extensive literature review was carried out to detect why design of experiments (DoE) is not widely used among engineers in Europe. Once 16 main barriers were identified, a survey was carried out to obtain first-hand information about the significance of each. We obtained 101 responses from academics, consultants and practitioners interested in DoE. A statistical analysis of the survey is introduced, including: (a) a ranking of the barriers, (b) grouping of barriers using factorial analysis, (c) differences between characteristics of respondents. This exploratory analysis showed that the main barriers that hinder the widespread use of DoE are low managerial commitment and engineers’ general weakness in statistics. Once the barriers were classified, the most important resultant group was that related to business barriers. 相似文献
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In two recent papers, Lozano and Villa [Centralized resource allocation using data envelopment analysis. Journal of Productivity Analysis 2004;22:143–61. [1]] and Lozano et al. [Centralized target setting for regional recycling operations using DEA. OMEGA 2004;32:101–10. [2]] introduce the concept of “centralized” data envelopment analysis (DEA) models, which aim at optimizing the combined resource consumption by all units in an organization rather than considering the consumption by each unit separately. This is particularly relevant for situations where some variables are controlled by a central authority (e.g. Head Office) rather than individual unit managers. In this paper we reconsider one of the centralized models proposed by the above-mentioned authors and suggest modifying it to only consider adjustments of previously inefficient units. We show how this new model formulation relate to a standard DEA model, namely as the analysis of the mean inefficient point. We also provide a procedure that can be used to generate alternative optimal solutions, enabling a decision maker to search through alternate solution possibilities in order to select the preferred one. We then extend the model to incorporate non-transferable as well as strictly non-discretionary variables and illustrate the models using an empirical example of a public service organization. 相似文献