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1.
Marriage and fertility in the United States have become less firmly entwined as more women bear children without marrying and more couples with children divorce. Today a sizeable number of children are expected to spend a portion of their childhood in one-parent households. Despite the trends in illegitimacy and divorce, the actual effect of out-of-wedlock childbearing on the living arrangements of children has not been fully explicated. Using the National Survey of Family Growth Cycle III, this paper estimates the probability that children aged 0–13 in 1982 are living in two-parent households, controlling for their mothers' marital statuses at their births. We find that marital status at birth is an important predictor of household structure at later ages for both white and black populations; however, the childhood environment is actually quite elastic as women marry, divorce, remarry, and redivorce. 相似文献
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This paper provides a Bayesian estimation procedure for monotone regression models incorporating the monotone trend constraint subject to uncertainty. For monotone regression modeling with stochastic restrictions, we propose a Bayesian Bernstein polynomial regression model using two-stage hierarchical prior distributions based on a family of rectangle-screened multivariate Gaussian distributions extended from the work of Gurtis and Ghosh [7]. This approach reflects the uncertainty about the prior constraint, and thus proposes a regression model subject to monotone restriction with uncertainty. Based on the proposed model, we derive the posterior distributions for unknown parameters and present numerical schemes to generate posterior samples. We show the empirical performance of the proposed model based on synthetic data and real data applications and compare the performance to the Bernstein polynomial regression model of Curtis and Ghosh [7] for the shape restriction with certainty. We illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed method that incorporates the uncertainty of the monotone trend and automatically adapts the regression function to the monotonicity, through empirical analysis with synthetic data and real data applications. 相似文献
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Serra Sónia R. Q. Calapez Ana Raquel Simões Nuno Eduardo Sá Marques José A. A. Laranjo Maria Feio Maria João 《Urban Ecosystems》2019,22(6):1173-1186
Urban Ecosystems - Urban streams provide important ecosystem services to cities’ population, from the maintenance of urban biodiversity, temperature, humidity and air quality to improving... 相似文献
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João Rodrigues 《Globalizations》2018,15(7):1020-1032
ABSTRACTThis article interprets Hayek’s theoretical practice with the help of Polanyi’s framework. Hayek aimed at renewing liberalism after the interwar period, thus helping transforming it into neoliberalism, a real utopia instrumentally concerned with the political and moral economies underpinning markets. The distance between neoliberal theory and practice is less pronounced than it is sometimes assumed. The strength of neoliberalism partially stems from a capacity to articulate an effort to think about real-world mechanisms with an effort to demolish, reconfigure or transform existing structures. Despite his failure to anticipate neoliberalism, Polanyi gives ample intellectual resources to critically interpret the tasks that neoliberals would collectively have to face at the theoretical level, in an epoch of ideological marginality, before their triumphal political deployment at the global level. 相似文献
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Rafaela Ganga José Pedro Silva Rui Gomes Henrique Vaz João Teixeira Lopes Sílvia Silva Luísa Cerdeira Belmiro Cabrito Dulce Magalhães Maria de Lurdes Machado‐Taylor Paulo Peixoto Tomás Patrocínio Rui Brites 《International migration (Geneva, Switzerland)》2016,54(6):43-55
In the economic and social aftermath of the 2008 crisis there has been an important and growing new wave of highly qualified Portuguese emigration comprising scientists. No or very few public policies have been designed to reverse this phenomenon, risking the consequences of brain drain. International literature argues that professional reasons are central to scientists’ decision to migrate, even after the 2008 crisis. Spending some time in a foreign country to study, research, or teach, is perceived as a common step in an individual academic trajectory and an advantage for a successful professional career in academia. It is also encouraged by European Union policies. Twelve individual portraits of Portuguese scientists living in central Europe reveal how important other factors are to the migration decision‐making process. These factors include the economic crisis, student mobility programmes, and the current Portuguese scientific system revision. 相似文献
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People who have visual impairments exceed 250 million persons worldwide and represent an important cohort of museum visitors. However, they experience many constraints to participation in daily life. Few studies analyse the accessibility of museums to visitors with visual impairments, and many are confined to a single museum and to a small set of strategies for improving accessibility. This article aims to identify a broad set of strategies to increase the accessibility of museums to visitors with visual impairments and analyse the accessibility of museums in four European cities. Conclusions and implications for policy-makers and museum managers, designed to promote the creation of inclusive museums, are presented. 相似文献