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1.
Ralph C. Ward Leonard Egede Viswanathan Ramakrishnan Lewis Frey Robert Neal Axon Clara Libby E. Dismuke 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2013,42(18):4642-4655
AbstractResearch involving administrative healthcare data to study patient outcomes requires the investigator to account for the patient’s disease burden in order to reduce the potential for biased results. Here we develop a comorbidity summary score based on variable importance measures derived from several statistical and machine learning methods and show it has superior predictive performance to the Elixhauser and Charlson indices when used to predict 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year mortality. We used two large Veterans Administration cohorts to develop and validate the summary score and compared predictive performance using the area under ROC curve (AUC) and the Brier score. 相似文献
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Although recent studies examine overall fertility trends in West Africa, few using advanced demographic techniques focus on adolescents. This study explores long‐term patterns of adolescent childbearing in 12 West African countries using 51 Demographic and Health Surveys covering birth cohorts that span 54 years (1940–1994). We employ classic demographic measures as well as disaggregation by early‐ (10–14 years old), middle‐ (15–17), and late adolescence (18–19). Cohort‐based estimates of total adolescent births, parity progression ratios, and rapid repeat birth probabilities reveal little change over time. Most women begin childbearing in adolescence, the progression to additional adolescent births remains common, and the incidence of rapid repeat births is high. In recent cohorts, women exit adolescence with an average of between 0.4 (Ghana) to 1.3 (Niger) births. Contrary to common assumptions, it is women commencing motherhood in early‐ and middle‐, not later adolescence, who account for most West African adolescent fertility. 相似文献
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Neal M. Stoughton 《决策科学》1986,17(3):424-427
Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem. 相似文献
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Neal Alexander 《Significance》2004,1(3):130-131
Thalassaemias are genetic blood disorders which cause varying degrees of anaemia. Their geographical distribution suggests a compensating protection against malaria, which kills between 0.5 and 2.5 million people per year in developing countries. Neal Alexander describes a study in Papua New Guinea which estimated this association more directly, and a triangle plot which clarified, for himself and his non-statistician colleagues, the relative risks of malaria for those with none, one or two copies of the relevant haemoglobin mutation. 相似文献
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Peter Neal 《Statistics and Computing》2012,22(6):1239-1256
Considerable progress has been made in applying Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to the analysis of epidemic data. However, this likelihood based method can be inefficient due to the limited data available concerning an epidemic outbreak. This paper considers an alternative approach to studying epidemic data using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methodology. ABC is a simulation-based technique for obtaining an approximate sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters of the model and in an epidemic context is very easy to implement. A new approach to ABC is introduced which generates a set of values from the (approximate) posterior distribution of the parameters during each simulation rather than a single value. This is based upon coupling simulations with different sets of parameters and we call the resulting algorithm coupled ABC. The new methodology is used to analyse final size data for epidemics amongst communities partitioned into households. It is shown that for the epidemic data sets coupled ABC is more efficient than ABC and MCMC-ABC. 相似文献
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There are a number of statistical techniques for analysing epidemic outbreaks. However, many diseases are endemic within populations and the analysis of such diseases are complicated by changing population demography. Motivated by the spread of cowpox among rodent populations, a combined mathematical model for population and disease dynamics is introduced. An MCMC algorithm is then constructed to make statistical inference for the model based on data being obtained from a capture–recapture experiment. The statistical analysis is used to identify the key elements in the spread of the cowpox virus. 相似文献
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Ethical codes of conduct are accepted requirements for membership in state and national organizations that grant credentials to those who are employed as alcohol and other drug (AOD) counselors, prevention specialists, and clinical supervisors. It seems appropriate to explore the possibility of an ethical code directly linked to addiction faculty which will outline their unique educational responsibilities and standards. The authors suggest development and adoption of such an ethical code for college-level addiction studies faculty and this proposal is offered as a move toward that possibility. 相似文献
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Community engagement has come to the fore as a policy and programme approach that seeks to connect citizens both with each other and with government in order to deliver improved social and economic opportunities and outcomes. This model has become a key aspect of the intervention approach within Indigenous communities and is seen to have particular application in addressing community justice issues. This article examines a suite of community justice initiatives being used in Indigenous communities in Australia with a view to ascertaining how the principles of community engagement are operationalized. The article draws on this information and argues that community engagement is only one aspect of a number of community‐oriented justice initiatives currently being applied. These initiatives range from concepts of community as a location, community as an interest group, and the leveraging of community capital so as to tap into and build better and stronger relationships. In so doing, the latter attempts to increase the social infrastructure, resources and capacity of communities. However, despite government attention in this area, there is a lack of a policy and programmatic framework to guide a coherent and apposite approach to issues of community in specific policy settings. The article contributes to the development of a framework that begins the process of differentiating and assessing justice administration interventions. 相似文献
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