Bayesian updating of atmospheric dispersion after a nuclear accident

Summary.  We consider a Bayesian forecasting system to predict the dispersal of contamination on a large scale grid in the event of an accidental release of radioactivity. The statistical model is built on a physical model for atmospheric dispersion and transport called MATCH. Our spatiotemporal model is a dynamic linear model where the state parameters are the (essentially, deterministic) predictions of MATCH; the distributions of these are updated sequentially in the light of monitoring data. One of the distinguishing features of the model is that the number of these parameters is very large (typically several hundreds of thousands) and we discuss practical issues arising in its implementation as a realtime model. Our procedures have been checked against a variational approach which is used widely in the atmospheric sciences. The results of the model are applied to test data from a tracer experiment.     

Organizational closedown and the process of deconstruction and creativity

This paper outlines an analysis of how the deconstruction of organizational, management control and performance management structures affects performances and how workers make sense of enhanced efforts and practices of creativity, in a situation when facing a certainty of job loss as of the closedown of the organization. In this paper, we have shown that the deconstruction of structures generate positive performance outcomes, and that such relation is being mediated by workers identity. We have also shown that identity work under a process of organizational closedown generate certain creativity. By doing so, this paper contributes to the literature on creativity and deconstruction by developing an emergent model where workers identity mediates formal structures in relation to performance. This paper contributes to the literature on closedowns by extending its analytical and theoretical domains, proving alternative, yet complementary and mediating explanations to the causes of drivers to enhanced performances during the process of closedown.     

Social decisions about risk and risk-taking

There has been very little contact between risk studies and more general studies of social decision processes. It is argued that as a consequence of this, an oversimplified picture of social decision processes prevails in studies of risk. Tools from decision theory, welfare economics, and moral theory can be used to analyze the intricate inter-individual relationships that need to be treated in an adequate account of social decision-making about risk. However, this is not a matter of simple or straightforward application of existing theory. It is a challenging area for new theoretical developments.     

Multisystemic therapy project in Sweden: what factors affect the tendency of social workers to refer subjects to the research project?

This article examines some of the factors that may have affected the tendency for social workers to refer adolescents to a randomised controlled study of multisystemic therapy (MST). If we are to improve integration between researchers and the clinical setting in the future, it is important to consider those factors that affect implementation of research projects and evidence-based treatment methods. Evidence-based methods that lack the support of clinicians will have problems surviving in clinical practice. In the present study, we found that social workers' treatment ideology was associated with referral rate. Social workers who sympathised with the ideology on which MST is based referred patients to the project to a greater extent. Moreover, we found that the perception of a good work climate and good social support correlated positively with the referral rate from the unit. The results suggest that when implementing evidence-based methods, or research projects on treatment methods, researchers should consider whether the method is consistent with the current treatment ideology within the unit. Working conditions in the unit should also be considered.     

Relational problems and psychiatric symptoms in couple therapy

This article describes couples attending family counselling in Sweden. The study group is compared with clinical groups and non-clinical groups. Self-rating instruments were com-pleted by 317 women and 312 men to evaluate the following: marital satisfaction (DAS), expressed emotion (QAFM), family climate (FC), psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90) and sense of coherence (SOC). This group had several problems: marital relationships, disrupted family functioning, dyadic interactions characterised by criticism and open arguments, and multiple psychological symptoms. The women were espe-cially discontent in the relationship, and they exhibited higher symptom strain and lower sense of coherence than the men did. Compared with non-clinical populations, this group was severely distressed and was similar to in-patient families in child psychiatric clinics. The low sense of coherence of the individuals in the group under study means that their sense of having a meaningful life and their ability to comprehend and manage problems were severely compromised. Adequate and comprehensive treatment within the framework of social pro-grammes should be made available to these couples and others in a similar situation.