Population Density is a Key Factor in Declining Human Fertility

In studying the complex determinants of human fertility, social scientists have given little attention to population density, although reproduction has been shown to be density-dependent for a wide variety of other species. Using fixed effects models on the time series of 145 countries and controlling for key social and economic variables, we find a consistent and significant negative relationship between human fertility and population density. Moreover, we find that individual fertility preferences also decline with population density. These findings suggest that population density should be included as a variable in future studies of fertility determinants.

Union Bargaining,Wage Differentials and Employment

Abstract. Reviewing empirical studies concerning the corporatism-flexibility-performance nexus the paper discusses decentralized and centralized bargaining systems. Revenue pay systems, concession bargaining and two-tier wage systems as means to enhance wage flexibility at the firm level are also considered. Both theoretical and empirical evidence is presented, showing that unions are bargaining for greater employment security for the already employed (the insiders). In return, unions are ready to accept greater wage flexibility and even wage decreases. By contrast, the insider-outsider theory does suggest how unions may accentuate involuntary unemployment, because there may be ways in which a union can help to raise the wages of the insiders without reducing their chances of continued employment.     

The East German Wage Structure in the Transition to a Market Economy

ABSTRACT: An important question for the development of the East German labour market in the transition to a market economy is whether wage differentials by qualification, industry or region (which were relatively small in the former GDR) adjust to those in market economies which are more in line with differences in productivities and economic conditions. We estimate empirical earnings functions to quantify the contribution of various important factors shaping the earnings distribution in the East German transition process. Estimation is based on the first six waves of the Labour Market Monitor which is a representative panel data set of the East German working-age population covering the period 1990 to 1992. The specification of the estimated earnings functions is motivated by the various hypotheses of the development of the East German wage structure in the transformation process. Although we find some similarities with the existing wage structure in West Germany, the East German wage structure still differs in some important dimensions.     

Invariant co-ordinate selection

Summary.  A general method for exploring multivariate data by comparing different estimates of multivariate scatter is presented. The method is based on the eigenvalue–eigenvector decomposition of one scatter matrix relative to another. In particular, it is shown that the eigenvectors can be used to generate an affine invariant co-ordinate system for the multivariate data. Consequently, we view this method as a method for invariant co-ordinate selection . By plotting the data with respect to this new invariant co-ordinate system, various data structures can be revealed. For example, under certain independent components models, it is shown that the invariant co- ordinates correspond to the independent components. Another example pertains to mixtures of elliptical distributions. In this case, it is shown that a subset of the invariant co-ordinates corresponds to Fisher's linear discriminant subspace, even though the class identifications of the data points are unknown. Some illustrative examples are given.     

Examining educational inequalities in two national systems: a comparison of the North African second generation in France and the Mexican second generation in the United States

This paper aims to compare the educational outcomes of children of immigrants in France and in the United States to highlight the ethnic educational inequalities in both countries. The comparison focuses on children from two groups: North Africans in France and Mexicans in the United States. By using two longitudinal datasets, the French Educational Panel Survey and Add Health, we examine aspirations, expectations, and secondary attainment in the two contexts. We explore in particular the role of parental education on attainment. Immigrant families have high educational aspirations in both contexts. North-African families express higher aspirations than native French with similar background, while there are no significant differences between second-generation Mexicans and the majority group net of parental education. Second-generation children are disadvantaged in school in both countries; they are more likely to drop out and less likely to graduate from high school, but most of the disadvantage is related to their social background. Net of social background, the Mexican second generation does not differ from the majority group while the North African second generation is more likely to get the French high school diploma than their peers of French origins, in line with their high aspirations. However, North Africans are more likely to receive the technological baccalauréat than the general baccalauréat.     

Demography,Education, and Democracy: Global Trends and the Case of Iran

Reconstructions and projections of populations by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries since 1970 are used to assess the global relationship between improvements in human capital and democracy. Democracy is measured by the Freedom House indicator of political rights. Similar to an earlier study on the effects of improving educational attainment on economic growth, the greater age detail of this new dataset resolves earlier ambiguities about the effect of improving education as assessed using a global set of national time series. The results show consistently strong effects of improving overall levels of educational attainment, of a narrowing gender gap in education, and of fertility declines and the subsequent changes in age structure on improvements in the democracy indicator. This global relationship is then applied to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Over the past two decades Iran has experienced the world's most rapid fertility decline associated with massive increases in female education. The results show that based on the experience of 120 countries since 1970, Iran has a high chance of significant movement toward more democracy over the following two decades.     

In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?

It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper, we question this interpretation. Our analysis shows that neither data mining nor dynamic misspecification of the model under the null nor unmodelled structural change under the null are plausible explanations of the observed tendency of in-sample tests to reject the no-predictability null more often than out-of-sample tests. We provide an alternative explanation based on the higher power of in-sample tests of predictability in many situations. We conclude that results of in-sample tests of predictability will typically be more credible than results of out-of-sample tests.     

Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality

Monte Carlo evidence shows that in structural VAR models with fat-tailed or skewed innovations the coverage accuracy of impulse response confidence intervals may deterorate substantially compared to the same model with Gaussian innovations. Empirical evidance suggests that such departures from normality are quite plausible for economic time series. The simulation results suggest that applied researchers are best off using nonparametric bootstrap intervals for impulse responses, regardless of whether or not there is evidence of fat tails or skewness in the error distribution. Allowing for departures from normality is shown to considerably weaken the evidence of the delayed overshooting puzzle in Eichenbaum and Evans (1995).