New Directions in the Development of Population Estimates in the United States?

The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs.     

The impact of policy changes on forecasting for school districts

This paper describes a case study in which a professional demographic consulting team was brought in to aid in the development of a long-term building and reorganization plan for an Indiana school district. Just prior to the start of this process, a state-level policy was promulgated that changed the age of eligibility for entering kindergarten in such a manner that it temporarily produced the appearance of an increase in the number of kindergartners in districts throughout Indiana. For the district in question, a group of residents pointed to the apparent growth in the number of kindergartners as a reason not to close schools in their area. Having uncovered both the policy and its effect, the consultants produced an enrollment forecast that was not confounded by the artificial appearance of growth. This forecast showed much less growth than expected by the district's officials and residents, both of whom had been conditioned to expect future enrollment growth by not only the policy effect but by local media reports on the national Baby Boomlet, a phenomenon not actually occurring in their district. The demographers successfully defended their forecast in the face of strong initial disbelief as well as outright opposition by the residents. This experience tends to validate the argument made by others that the participation of professional demographers in an adversarial procedure can be beneficial in helping to formulate long-term plans.Paper presented at the Fifteenth Annual International Symposium on Forecasting, Toronto, Canada, 4–7 June 1995.