Population,Development and Global Warming: Averting the Tragedy of the Climate Commons

Carbon emissions from fossil fuel use and other human activity are predicted to cause a significant warming of the global climate, according to a growing consensus of scientists. Global warming would have substantial negative effects on the world environment and economy. Human population and economic growth continue to drive both energy use and carbon emissions. While the developed countries are the largest source of present and past emissions, developing countries are rapidly catching up. China will probably surpass the United States as the largest carbon emitter early in the next century. The global warming treaty signed in Rio in 1992 relies entirely on voluntary emission caps for developed countries and has had little or no apparent effect on emissions. Much stronger steps must be taken to avoid or lessen potential climate change. A globally determined but nationally imposed carbon tax should be adopted to internalize the future costs of carbon emissions into the present cost of fossil fuel and other carbon sources. This would allow the maximum use of free market forces and individual choice to determine how carbon emission reductions are achieved. In addition, national emission caps for all countries should be established. International trade mechanisms can be used to support universal implementation of these measures. Where possible, global warming policy should include strong but equitable incentives for sustainable development and population stabilization, important goals in themselves regardless of the extent of future climate change.     

The Social Psychology of Physical Disability: 1948 and 1988

The editor of JSI's 1948 special issue on the social psychology of physical disability recalls some of the circumstances associated with its creation. He epitomizes the Zeitgeist in this field in 1948 and 1988, speculates on the influence of the JSI issue in the changes that occurred over those 40 years, and discusses several variables that may influence further developments by the year 2000.     

Book Review Immigration and the Social Contract: The Implosion of Western Societies. Edited by John Tanton,Denis McCormack and Joseph Wayne Smith. Avebury/Ashgate Publishing Company. 1996, 237 pages

Population and Environment -     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.

     

Policy View: Immigration,Population Policy,and the Sierra Club

Population and Environment -     

Minimum failure explanations for path vector routing changes

Path vector protocols in routing networks convey entire path information to each destination. When links fail, affected paths are replaced by new paths, and by observing the entire path information, one might hope to infer the failed links that caused these changes. However, inferring the exact topological changes behind observed routing changes may not be possible due to limited information, and the same changes may be explained by more than one set of candidate failures. In this paper, using a simple path vector routing model, we present the problem of finding the candidate set with minimum number of failures to explain observed route changes. We call this problem the minimum e-set problem and present algorithms for solving it optimally for certain cases. We also show that the minimum e-set problem is NP-complete in the general case. This material is based upon work supported by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) under Contract No N66001-04-1-8926 and by National Science Fundation(NSF) under Contract No ANI-0221453. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the DARPA or NSF. Part of the work was done when Akash Nanavati was at DA-IICT, India     

Educational Linkages between Undergraduate Education in Social Welfare and Professional Social Work Education

Schools of social work in the United States and in Canada have for many years, supported and encouraged their faculty to accept visiting professorships or research appointments in foreign schools of social work. This program has benefited both faculty and students through enriched course content. However, only in recent years have more than a few faculty from foreign schools of social work joined the faculties of schools of social work in the United States and Canada as visiting professors. There is no question that these faculty members have made a contribution to social work education in the schools where they were resident. This author provides insights on how visiting professors might affectively contribute as members of faculty and questions the emphasis we are presently giving to methodology at the expense of our commitment to the ideological and moral base of social work.     

Sexual assault and alcohol use: exploring the self-medication hypothesis

Though a link between sexual victimization and alcohol use has been well documented, the mechanisms underlying this relationship remain unclear. The current study used path analysis to examine the role of self-reported levels of psychological distress and the function of alcohol use as indirect pathways between adult sexual assault and alcohol use. Participants were 318 undergraduate female victims and nonvictims of adult sexual assault. Results showed that a history of sexual assault was associated with increased psychological distress, which in turn contributed to alcohol use via negative reinforcement. Taken together, these findings provided support for the hypothesis that women who have been sexually assaulted consume alcohol, in part, to self-medicate. The implications for future research are discussed.