Conceptualizing and Measuring Financial Resilience: A Multidimensional Framework

Financial inclusion has become a policy priority. For many countries, this has meant focusing on the delivery and practical aspects of financial products and services. This paper argues that this approach is not sufficient to improve financial wellbeing more broadly. It suggests a more comprehensive approach moving away from asking whether people are excluded or not to asking whether they have access to accessible, acceptable and appropriate resources and supports in adverse financial circumstances. A better understanding of individuals’ financial resilience: how they bounce back from adverse financial events and the resources and supports they draw on; could help determine where resources can and should be invested to assist people to cope with financial adversity, assist the development of effective policy and, ultimately, improve financial wellbeing. This paper puts forward a definition of financial resilience and a methodology for measuring it. Australia is used as a case country from which to draw conclusions using a survey of 1496 representative adults (18+). The findings indicate that over 2 million Australian adults experienced severe or high levels of financial vulnerability raising very real concerns about financial wellbeing. Implications for academics and policy makers are presented.

     

Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low‐ and middle‐income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model‐based cost‐benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.     

The Scientific Training of Introductory Sociology Students: Seventeen Years Later*

To measure the level of effectiveness with which the scientific basis of sociology is presented to introductory students, questionnaires were administered to two hundred students enrolled in three comparable sections of introductory sociology at a large state university. These indicated that students in general began the course almost totally ignorant of science and, when subjected to conventional introductory sociology materials, ended the course at the same level–a finding consistent with that of a similar study conducted seventeen years before.     

An Adaptive Systems Theory: Toward Reductionism*

An attempt is made to unite diverse principles of contemporary sociology by viewing social systems as adaptive systems whose members are also adaptive systems, the general class of systems that attempt to maximize internal values by modifying their behavior and/or structure. Large numbers of sociological and behavioral propositions were examined and those that met criteria of relevance, clarity, and empirical support were restated in a standardized format. A systems-theoretical reductionist perspective was applied to these selected propositions with the aid of a theorem-generating computer program developed as part of the research, in order to identify the subset that, as axioms, would most efficiently generate those remaining as theorems. The resulting axiomatic theory appears to satisfy the scientific criteria of generality and parsimony, as well as the additional design goals of ready comprehension and application, the latter tested in part by social-system simulations. Among the nontrivial derivatives illustrated are principal propositions related to learning, values, economic models of decision making, social exchange, arms races, coalition formation, segregation, and cultural evolution.     

Biblical nationalism and the sixteenth-century states

The emergence of Protestant nations in sixteenth-century Europe was driven by the sudden rediscovery of biblical nationalism, a political model that did not separate the religious from the political. Biblical nationalism was new because pre-Reformation Europeans encountered the Hebrew Bible through paraphrases and abridgments. Full-text Bibles revealed a programmatic nationalism backed by unmatched authority as the word of God to readers primed by Reformation theology to seek models in the Bible for the reform of their own societies. Sixteenth-century biblical nationalism was the unintended side effect of a Reformation intended to save souls.     

Using computers to explore ecological issues: A simple limits-to-growth educational program

Educational-level software allows students to interactively conduct their own research on Earth's ecology by using a much-simplified version of the Forrester computer model on which the landmark 1972 limits-to-growth studies were based. Default values of all variables (including the Earth's population, food supply, natural resources, industrialization, and pollution), and simple difference equations relating them, are provided so that the program can be immediately run by novice users. Both variable values and equations can be easily altered to observe the consequences of users' assumptions or proposed policies.In keeping with its educational objectives, SPACESHIP EARTH has been placed in the public domain and an IBM PC-compatible version can be obtained without charge by sending a formatted diskette (3.5 or 5.25 inch) to the author.     

Approximating the equilibrium quantity traded and welfare in large markets

We consider the efficient outcome of a canonical economic market model involving buyers and sellers with independent and identically distributed random valuations and costs, respectively. When the number of buyers and sellers is large, we show that the joint distribution of the equilibrium quantity traded and welfare is asymptotically normal. Moreover, we bound the approximation rate. The proof proceeds by constructing, on a common probability space, a representation consisting of two independent empirical quantile processes, which in large markets can be approximated by independent Brownian bridges. The distribution of interest can then be approximated by that of a functional of a Gaussian process. This methodology applies to a variety of mechanism design problems.     

A program of research with Hispanic and African American families: three decades of intervention development and testing influenced by the changing cultural context of Miami

In this article we summarize work with poor, inner-city Hispanic and African American families conducted at the University of Miami Center for Family Studies. We elucidate ways in which this research program has paralleled the treatment development paradigm and has been responsive to changes in local demographics. Specific cultural issues pertaining to Hispanics and African Americans are discussed in light of treatment development and implementation. Future directions and challenges for working with poor, inner-city minority families are addressed.