The integrative potential of a fertility model: An analytical test

Abstract In an earlier paper a working model of marital fertility was presented.(1) That model grew out of a close study of Becker's economic model for fertility analysis.(2) Becker's model was modified in several respects in order to meet a number of major objections levelled against it by Judith Blake, Deborah Freedman, and others.(3) The purpose of the present paper is to examine how far the model presented earlier can serve as a 'binder' for the interpretative schemes now available in the literature on fertility differentials. More specifically, the objective is to identify the underlying explanatory factors of a number of analytical hypotheses concerning fertility differentials, and to examine whether the factors thus identified can be located in the fertility model presented in the earlier paper.(4) Little attention will be paid to the causal directions, if any, recognized in the hypotheses studied, nor will we attempt to provide a systematic review of empirical findings.     

On the ratio-correlation and related methods of subnational population estimation

The ratio-correlation method is one of several methods currently being used in the United States for making postcensal estimates of subnational units such as states and counties. It seems to have been commonly presumed by those writing on the subject that the working of the ratiocorrelation method can be understood simply on the basis of the multiple regression theory. That this common notion may sometimes be untenable is demonstrated in this paper. It is pointed out that the ratio-correlation method of subnational population estimation has certain characteristic features that make its application fall sometimes outside the usual contexts in which the conventional multiple regression theory is applicable. A number of alternatives to the ratio-correlation method are suggested. Some of the alternatives suggested are shown to yield relatively more accurate results when used for estimating postcensal populations of North Carolina counties.     

A method for comparative analysis of fertility dynamics represented by sequences of fertility schedules

A method to compare fertility sequences, each of which represents a cyclical fluctuation around an underlying trend, is presented. Each fertility sequence is viewed as composed of a time trend in childspacing pattern and a corresponding trend in terminal fertility rate. The procedure involved in comparing each component of one fertility sequence with the corresponding component of another is described and illustrated. Using hypothetical data it is shown, among other things, that ifA andB are two cyclical fluctuations in fertility such that (i) the cycles in both are of the same length, (ii) the terminal fertility components of the two are identical, and (iii) the trend in the mean age at childbirth associated withA is higher than the corresponding trend associated withB, then, replacingB withA need not necessarily result in lowering the long-run rates of increase in the birth sequence.     

The human ecological approach to the study of population dynamics

Human ecology is a specialization of ecology, tailored to suit the characteristic features of human populations. This essay focuses upon human ecology as set forth by Hawley and Duncan, although other conceptualizations are referred to. The bio-ecological framework is described together with an introduction of the distinction between population ecology and community ecology. Bio-ecology is an important subdiscipline of biology, but its subject has never been as complex as that of human ecology. Human ecologists developed their own theoretical framework distinct from that of bio-ecology. The author briefly outlines the history of human ecology, emphasizing the initial phase of the Chicago School, which focused upon spatial patterns of human phenomena, and the succeeding one, in which a reorientation focused upon the organizational aspects of population dynamics. The author then reviews some of the basic features of human ecology, discusses population ecology and its applications, with reference to the study of populations of households, and outlines the use of graph theory, input-output frameworks, and multilevel modeling to improve the formal and methodological aspects of human ecology. The spatial concern of human ecology is considered and situated in a broader context.     

Some observations on the economic framework for fertility analysis

Abstract The economic framework for fertility analysis, first expounded in detail by Gary S. Becker(1), has attracted considerable attention among demographers. While some writers have enthusiastically endorsed the model, others have rejected it outright(3). A few attempts have also recently been made by some writers to modify or refine some of the concepts employed, and/or to change the modes of treatment of some of the factors in the original model. Unfortunately, several major objections levelled against the model still remain. It also remains to be examined whether the criticisms can be met without violating the principles and strategies espoused by economists. I believe (1) that most of the objections advanced against the model can be met by suitably modifying it, and (2) that the required modifications can be effected by employing strategies and conceptual schemes similar to those used in the demand analysis of consumer behaviour. The objective of this paper is to expound this belief. There is a strong possibility that after modification a healthy new theory will emerge which may prove useful in guiding research, as well as help to bring together different empirical findings in the literature, or to serve as a 'binder' for the theoretical speculations advanced by many research workers.     

On the relation between economic status and family size preferences when status differentials in contraceptive instrumentalities are eliminated

Abstract In this paper an attempt is made to formalize the essential elements of a theory of reproductive motivation outlined by Judith Blake in a recent article. On the basis of the results of that exercise, it is argued that the theory, as it stands now, is not specific enough to 'predict' whether the affluent would choose to have fewer children than the poor, if contraceptive instrumentalities were to be equalized among the economic strata. It is also argued that the negative (though weak) association between ideal family size and economic status and the non-negative association between desired number of children and economic status, observed in survey data, are both consistent with the basic premisses of the theory under reference.     

Which couples at given parities expect to have additional births? An exercise in discriminant analysis

Do couples at given parities who expect to have additional births differ on selected characteristics from their counterparts who do not expect to have any more children? This question is examined herein focusing attention on the wife’s age, age at marriage, religion, and education and the husband’s education and income. The method used is the discriminant-function analysis. The data are from the 1965 U. S. National Fertility Study. The combined discriminatory power of the social and economic background characteristics examined herein has been found to be greater at higher parities than at lower ones, while the opposite is true of demographic characteristics.