An Empirical Test of a Neo-Malthusian Theory of Fertility Change

Some neo-Malthusians regard fertility as being kept in check by scarcities and constraints and, conversely, as being raised by economic prosperity. Since out-migration to developed countries and the receipt of food aid from developed countries relax the constraints imposed by a country’s carrying capacity, both will have a positive effect on fertility rates in developing countries. Moreover, better economic prospects will also raise fertility, all other things equal. This article provides an empirical test of these hypotheses derived from a neo-Malthusian theory of fertility change. The results fail to confirm the theory and often contradict it.

HIV/AIDS and Cross-National Convergence in Life Expectancy

This article analyzes the effect of HIV/AIDS on the cross-national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best-guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is removed. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting by country population size) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly attributable to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the “No AIDS scenario.” Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the reduced degree of inequality in life expectancy attained by 1985 is only expected to be achieved again by 2015 at the earliest. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, divergence could continue to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios.     

Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

This study adds to the emerging literature examining empirically the link between population size, other demographic factors and pollution. We contribute by using more reliable estimation techniques and examine two air pollutants. By considering sulfur dioxide, we become the first study to explicitly examine the impact of demographic factors on a pollutant other than carbon dioxide at the cross-national level. We also take into account the urbanization rate and the average household size neglected by many prior cross-national econometric studies. For carbon dioxide emissions we find evidence that population increases are matched by proportional increases in emissions while a higher urbanization rate and lower average household size increase emissions. For sulfur dioxide emissions, we find a U-shaped relationship, with the population-emissions elasticity rising at higher population levels. Urbanization and average household size are not found to be significant determinants of sulfur dioxide emissions. For both pollutants, our results suggest that an increasing share of global emissions will be accounted for by developing countries. Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve literature are described and directions for further work identified.     

The ISEW -- not an Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare

Social Indicators Research -     

Do Human Rights Matter in Bilateral Aid Allocation? A Quantitative Analysis of 21 Donor Countries*

Objective. To analyze the role of human rights in aid allocation of 21 donor countries. Methods. Econometric analysis is applied to a panel covering the period 1985 to 1997. Results. Respect for civil/political rights plays a statistically significant role for most donors at the aid eligibility stage. Personal integrity rights, on the other hand, have a positive impact on aid eligibility for few donors only. At the level stage, most donors fail to promote respect for human rights in a consistent manner and often give more aid to countries with a poor record on either civil/political or personal integrity rights. No systematic difference is apparent between the like‐minded countries commonly regarded as committed to human rights (Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden) and the other donors. Conclusions. Contrary to their verbal commitment, donor countries do not consistently reward respect for human rights in their foreign aid allocation.     

Do We Trust the Data? On the Validity and Reliability of Cross‐National Environmental Surveys

Objective. This article provides evidence on the validity and reliability of cross-national environmental surveys, an aspect that has not found much attention so far. Methods. Validity can be checked in examining whether cross-national differences in environmental attitudes are in accordance with theoretical hypotheses. For example, a study can claim some validity if concern about inadequate sanitation is strongly negatively correlated with the actual extent of access to sanitation in a country. Results. Several validity checks were undertaken for the Gallup, Gallup, and Dunlap (1993) survey, all of which tend to support its validity. Next, the reliability of cross-national environmental surveys was checked. Both Pearson and Spearman rank correlations were run for similar questions from differing studies. Most correlations were low and statistically insignificant, however, thus putting some doubt on the reliability of cross-national environmental surveys, at least with respect to the questions examined. Conclusions. The findings support the validity of cross-national environmental surveys, but not their reliability. Future surveys should be designed such that validity and reliability checks become easier to undertake.