Uncertain Numbers and Uncertainty in the Selection of Input Distributions—Consequences for a Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Contaminated Land

Risks from exposure to contaminated land are often assessed with the aid of mathematical models. The current probabilistic approach is a considerable improvement on previous deterministic risk assessment practices, in that it attempts to characterize uncertainty and variability. However, some inputs continue to be assigned as precise numbers, while others are characterized as precise probability distributions. Such precision is hard to justify, and we show in this article how rounding errors and distribution assumptions can affect an exposure assessment. The outcome of traditional deterministic point estimates and Monte Carlo simulations were compared to probability bounds analyses. Assigning all scalars as imprecise numbers (intervals prescribed by significant digits) added uncertainty to the deterministic point estimate of about one order of magnitude. Similarly, representing probability distributions as probability boxes added several orders of magnitude to the uncertainty of the probabilistic estimate. This indicates that the size of the uncertainty in such assessments is actually much greater than currently reported. The article suggests that full disclosure of the uncertainty may facilitate decision making in opening up a negotiation window. In the risk analysis process, it is also an ethical obligation to clarify the boundary between the scientific and social domains.     

Dashed Hopes,Dashed Selves? A Sociometer Perspective on Self‐esteem Change Across the Transition to Secondary School

The transition from primary to secondary school challenges children's psychological well‐being. A cross‐transitional longitudinal study (N = 306; mean age = 12.2 years) examined why some children's self‐esteem decreases across the transition whereas other children's self‐esteem does not. Children's expected social acceptance in secondary school was measured before the transition; their actually perceived social acceptance was measured after the transition. Self‐esteem and Big Five personality traits were measured both pre‐ and posttransition. Self‐esteem changed as a function of the discrepancy between children's expected and actually perceived social acceptance. Furthermore, neuroticism magnified self‐esteem decreases when children's ‘hopes were dashed'—when they experienced disappointing levels of social acceptance. These findings provide longitudinal support for sociometer theory across the critical transition to secondary school.     

Gender and social conformity: Do men and women respond differently to social pressure to vote?

In this paper, we re-analyze data from a large-scale field experiment (N = 344,084) on voter turnout in order to determine whether men and women respond differently to social pressure aimed at voter mobilization. To date, there have been mixed results regarding the interaction between a person’s gender and receptivity to social influence. On the whole, our analyses confirm prior findings that social pressure increases voter turnout but uncover little to no evidence of gender differences in receptivity to social pressure cues in the context of political participation.     

THE TRAVELS OF A BANK DEPOSIT IN TURBULENT TIMES: THE IMPORTANCE OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE DESIGN FOR CROSS-BORDER DEPOSITS

We examine the impact of the existence on an explicit deposit insurance (DI) scheme and its design features on bilateral cross-border deposits (CBD) in a gravity model setting. We find that both the absolute quality of a country's DI and its relative quality vis-à-vis other countries' DI generally affect depositor behavior. However, during systemic banking crises, cross-border depositors primarily seek countries with the best DI schemes. Similarly, during the 2008–2009 great financial crisis, the emergency actions taken by the governments, which supply and maintain these safe havens, have led to substantial relocations of CBD. (JEL F34, G18)     

Comparing swimsuits in 3D

In competitive swimming, suits have become more important. These suits influence friction, pressure and wave drag. Friction drag is related to the surface properties whereas both pressure and wave drag are greatly influenced by body shape. To find a relationship between the body shape and the drag, the anthropometry of several world class female swimmers wearing different suits was accurately defined using a 3D scanner and traditional measuring methods. The 3D scans delivered more detailed information about the body shape. On the same day the swimmers did performance tests in the water with the tested suits. Afterwards the result of the performance tests and the differences found in body shape was analyzed to determine the deformation caused by a swimsuit and its effect on the swimming performance. Although the amount of data is limited because of the few test subjects, there is an indication that the deformation of the body influences the swimming performance.     

The Promethean role of Europe: changing narratives of the political and scholarly left

ABSTRACT

The gradual abandoning of the ‘socialism in one country’ doctrine during the post-war period and the intensive transformation of European social democracy in the 1990s pushed social democratic politicians and intellectuals into the front line of advocates of a unified and powerful Europe. They contributed to the inclusion of social democratic and environmentalist values in the EU’s official narrative. The success of European integration and George W. Bush’s presidency created the narrative of the Promethean role of Europe. Scholars with a social democratic or environmentalist background created this narrative and it was also shaped by authors’ national contexts.     

Estimation of flood frequencies from data sets with outliers using mixed distribution functions

In this paper the estimation of high return period quantiles of the flood peak and volume in the Kolubara River basin are carried out. Estimation of flood frequencies is carried out on a data set containing high outliers which are identified by the Rosner’s test. Simultaneously, low outliers are determined by the multiple Grubbs–Beck. The next step involved the usage of the mixed distribution functions applied to a data set from three populations: floods with low outliers, normal floods and floods with high outliers. The contribution of the data set with low outliers is neglected, since it should underestimate the flood quantiles with large return periods. Consequently, the best fitted mixed distribution from the applied types (EV1, GEV, P3 and LP3) was determined by using the minimum standard error of fit.     

Bounding Analysis as an Inadequately Specified Methodology

The bounding analysis methodology described by Ha-Duong et al. (this issue) is logically incomplete and invites serious misuse and misinterpretation, as their own example and interpretation illustrate. A key issue is the extent to which these problems are inherent in their methodology, and resolvable by a logically complete assessment (such as Monte Carlo or Bayesian risk assessment), as opposed to being general problems in any risk-assessment methodology. I here attempt to apportion the problems between those inherent in the proposed bounding analysis and those that are more general, such as reliance on questionable expert elicitations. I conclude that the specific methodology of Ha-Duong et al. suffers from logical gaps in the definition and construction of inputs, and hence should not be used in the form proposed. Furthermore, the labor required to do a sound bounding analysis is great enough so that one may as well skip that analysis and carry out a more logically complete probabilistic analysis, one that will better inform the consumer of the appropriate level uncertainty. If analysts insist on carrying out a bounding analysis in place of more thorough assessments, extensive analyses of sensitivity to inputs and assumptions will be essential to display uncertainties, arguably more essential than it would be in full probabilistic analyses.