Differential life-styles between migrants and nonmigrants: A case study of the city of Shiraz,Iran

The migration pattern to Shiraz, a southern city of Iran, is not consistent with the general pattern observed in cities of the other developing nations. Migrants to Shiraz are largely from other cities, and they are more advanced educationally and socioeconomically and less traditional than native Shirazi. This study is based on 1,061 interview cases collected at random. The sample consists of 612 nonmigrants, 125 rural migrants and 324 urban migrants. These groups were compared on thirtyfour indices measuring various facets of the respondents' life-styles. The three groups differed statistically on most of the indices. Fatalism and possession of modern appliances were the most important factors differentiating the three groups.     

Modernization process and fertility change in pre- and post-Islamic Revolution of Iran

The purpose of this paper is to examine some of the possible causal links between modernization forces and fertility patterns of the Iranian provinces during three time periods, 1966, 1976 and 1986. A modernization scale was constructed using Iranian census data. Six indicators of industrialization, urbanization and universal education were used to develop the scale. The ratio of children under 5 years per women 15 to 44 years old was used as a measure of fertility. The findings show that modernization has proceeded upward in an almost consistent pattern in all the provinces during 1966–1986. The Islamic Revolution and Iran-Iraq War not only did not disrupt the modernization trend, it seems that both events accelerated the rate of change. The modernization indicators, individually and collectively, were significantly and inversely correlated with fertility ratios. However, the fertility ratios of the provinces substantially increased in the decade of 1976 to 1986. Our thesis is that the elimination of the national family planning program which happened in the early part of the post-Islamic Revolution had significant effect on the fertility increase of the period 1976 to 1986. The current active family planning program of the Islamic Republic of Iran suggests that the fertility rate of Iran, very likely, will decline in the near future if the current modernization trend and fertility regulation policy continue.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 22nd General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Montreal, Canada, 24 August 1993.     

The evolution and problems of model management research

Models are a key resource for organizational decision making. The diversity, complexity, and reusability of this resource result in the need for model management systems. The construction of a model management system involves a modeling task dimension and a design level dimension. The modeling task dimension consists of model formulation, model representation, and model processing. The design level dimension addresses the architectural requirements of a system from a user's standpoint and a computer system's standpoint.The numerous architectures suggested in the model management systems literature address isolated areas identified by these dimensions. The research surveyed in this paper indicates that the primary focus has been on the system view of model representation. Before model management systems can be widely used in organizations, model management researchers must explore systems that address all areas of the task and design level dimensions.In this paper, we identify and justify the necessary dimensions of model management research. Next, the existing model management research is critically reviewed. Finally, neglected research areas are discussed, and investigations necessary for the development of integrated model management systems are suggested.     

Diagnostic bias in organizational consultation

This article is intended to improve consultation practice by explaining the significance of models, heuristics, and diagnostic aids in organizational diagnosis. The role of diagnostic models in determining the consultant's frame of reference is explained. Evidence that organizational consultants consciously use diagnostic models is provided by citing two independent studies that revealed about 70% of the consultants reported that a diagnostic model was used. The availability, representativeness, and anchoring heuristics used by diagnosticians are summarized and examples of their use are cited. Readers are warned that bias occurs from misapplying the heuristics. However, guidance on correctly applying the heuristics is provided. The development and improvement of diagnostic expertise is explained from the perspective of learning through education as well as feedback received from clients, colleagues (as shadow consultants and as consulting team members), and self. Thus, written from the perspective of a consultant, the article provides a practical presentation on diagnostic bias, supported by theory and empirical research. It should appeal not only to a consulting constituency (i.e. practicing consultants, consultant trainers, and novice consultants), but also to the large number of potential clients (i.e. organizational decision-makers). Future research directions are discussed in terms of (1) the research that has identified relationships between consultant characteristics (e.g. Jungian constructs) and diagnostic information, and (2) the potential of expert systems in organizational diagnosis.