Competitive bidding — The probability of winning

A company bidding by sealed tender needs to know the relationship between their bid price and their chances of winning the contract. Previously published models for computing the probability of winning are examined and found to be inaccurate. The problem is reformulated, and a new general predictive model for computing the probability of winning is developed. The method of computation is illustrated by a simple worked example.     

Evaluating public health perspectives of sexually transmitted diseases: The need for further research

While sexuality is the focus of extensive research, the concept has not been adequately defined. In this paper, sexuality is defined as the individual capacity to respond to physical experiences which are capable of producing body‐centered genital excitation, that only subsequently becomes associated with cognitive constructs (either anticipatory for new experiences or reflective of past experiences) independent of ongoing physical experiences. The discussion focuses on four components of this definition: that sexuality is an individual capacity, is experiential, is body‐oriented, and is directed toward genital excitation.     

Business drivers not sector membership determine the most effective production planning and control; a novel approach to a perennial problem

This paper outlines research aimed at developing novel planning and scheduling reference models for industrial sectors where the MRPII paradigm is not appropriate. It outlines the process mapping approach adopted, the data capture method developed for the case study companies, the use of ARIS (Scheer's) enterprise modelling tool, and the first stages in the production of sector reference models.     

World population projections: alternative paths to zero growth

This article discusses Frejka's analysis of alternative paths to zero population growth. A net reproduction rate (NRR) of 1 is a vital step in reaching zero growth, but because of age distribution variances, it does not necessarily represent zero growth. The projections described here include: 1)the immediate path of achieving NRR of 1 in 1970-1975: 2)rapid path of an NRR of 1 in 2000-2005: and 3)slow path of NRR of 1 in 2040-2045. The population of the world in the year 2000 would be respectively: 5,700,000,000; 6,000000,000; and 7,000,000,000. Zero growth would be reached in 2000 for the immediate path; in 2100 with a population of 8,000,000,000 in the rapid path; and in 2045 with a population of 15,000,000,000. Individual projections are also given for several countries on different continents.     

The Value of Information to the Acidic Deposition Debates

This article is addressed to those interested in how Bayesian approaches can be brought to bear on research and development planning and management issues. It provides a conceptual framework for estimating the value of information to environmental policy decisions. The methodology is applied to assess the expected value of research concerning the effects of acidic deposition on forests. To calculate the expected value of research requires modeling the possible actions of policymakers under conditions of uncertainty. Information is potentially valuable only if it leads to actions that differ from the actions that would be taken without the information. The relevant issue is how research on forest effects would change choices of emissions controls from those that would be made in the absence of such research. The approach taken is to model information with a likelihood function embedded in a decision tree describing possible policy options. The value of information is then calculated as a function of information accuracy. The results illustrate how accurate the information must be to have an impact on the choice of policy options. The results also illustrate situations in which additional research can have a negative value.     

Dynamic Competition With Random Demand and Costless Search: A Theory of Price Posting

This paper studies a dynamic model of perfectly competitive price posting under demand uncertainty. Firms must produce output in advance. After observing aggregate sales in prior periods, firms post prices for their unsold output. In each period, the demand of a new batch of consumers is randomly activated. Existing customers who have not yet bought and then new customers arrive at the market in random order, observe the posted prices, and either purchase at the lowest available price or delay their purchase decision. We construct a sequential equilibrium in which the output produced and its allocation across consumers is efficient. Thus consumers endogenously sort themselves efficiently, with the highest valuations purchasing first. Transaction prices in each period rise continuously, as firms become more optimistic about demand, followed by a market correction. By the last period, prices are market clearing.     

New perspectives on the governance of executive compensation: an examination of the role and effect of compensation consultants

We develop a multi-theoretic approach, drawing on economic, institutional, managerial power and social comparison literatures to explain the role of the external compensation consultant in the top management pay setting institutional field. Taking advantage of recent disclosure requirements in the UK, we collect data on compensation consultant use in 232 large companies. We show that consultants are a prevalent part of the CEO pay setting scene, and document evidence of all advisor use. Our econometric results show that consultant use is associated with firm size and the equity pay mix. We also show that CEO pay is positively associated with peer firms that share consultants, with higher board and consultant interlocks, and some evidence that where firms supply other business services to the firm, CEO pay is greater.     

Perceived Racial Discrimination as a Predictor of Health Behaviors: the Moderating Role of Gender

Perceived racial discrimination (PRD) has been implicated in undermining the mental and physical health of racial/ethnic minorities (e.g., Williams et al. in Am J Public Health 93:200–208, 2003; Wong et al. in J Pers 71:1197–1232, 2003). Researchers have begun to explore the indirect role of health behaviors as one factor in helping to explain this relationship. The goal of the present study was to examine the relationship between PRD and a wide range of health behaviors using a prospective, longitudinal design and to explore the role of gender in moderating these relationships. Using data from the Maryland Adolescent Development in Context Study, we examined the relationship between adolescent PRD (accumulated across ages 14–21) and health behaviors (i.e., diet, substance use, exercise) at age 30 in a sample of middle-class black men and women. Using structural equation modeling, results revealed that more cumulative PRD during adolescence was associated with less healthy eating, more substance use (among men), and more exercise (among women) in young adulthood. Implications of these findings for understanding the role of health behaviors in explaining the link between PRD and health outcomes are considered.     

Productivity of highly skilled immigrants: economists in the postwar period

Prior work finds declining immigrant quality in the postwar period that is linked to source-country and skill-composition changes associated with the 1965 Immigration Act. This paper uses a unique panel of foreign- and native-born American Economic Association members to show that the highly skilled experienced a similar shift away from European migrants toward those from Asia. However, the findings do not indicate that this change in source-country composition has been accompanied by a decline in quality; rather, the most recent cohorts of foreign-born economists appear to be more productive than their native counterparts.