Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Mixture structure analysis using the Akaike Information Criterion and the bootstrap

Given i.i.d. observations x1,x2,x3,...,xn drawn from a mixture of normal terms, one is often interested in determining the number of terms in the mixture and their defining parameters. Although the problem of determining the number of terms is intractable under the most general assumptions, there is hope of elucidating the mixture structure given appropriate caveats on the underlying mixture. This paper examines a new approach to this problem based on the use of Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) based pruning of data driven mixture models which are obtained from resampled data sets. Results of the application of this procedure to artificially generated data sets and a real world data set are provided.     

Fitting In: Socio-Economic Attainment Patterns of Foreign-Born Egyptians in the United States

This paper analyzes socio-economic attainment patterns of foreign-born Egyptians in the United States, as tabulated in the 1980 U. S. Census. This is achieved first through an examination of their earnings, followed by an analysis of the rate at which their human capital characteristics are converted into wages.
The findings suggest that this more recent immigrant group has likely attained higher earnings largely because of their skills and educational levels. Thus, while assimilation theory posits the crucial importance of time as a linkage to higher socio-economic attainment, this may not necessarily be the case for these immigrant men and women.     

Do females necessarily have the same occupational status scores as males? A conceptual and empirical examination of the Duncan Socioeconomic Status Index and Nam-Powers Occupational Status Scores

Social Science researchers have advanced important yet somewhat contradictory conclusions regarding the different economic and occupational reward structures faced by men and women. Income and wage differences between men and women have been shown to be sizable and persistent throughout the occupational hierarchy. Conversely, gender differences in occupational status, commonly scaled by the Duncan Socioeconomic Index, have been shown to be small or nonexistent in most studies. In an attempt to investigate this incongruity, the present study undertakes a comparison of the Duncan SEI and the Nam-Powers Occupational Status Scores in an empirical study of the occupational position of white men and women in 65 large standard metropolitan statistical areas (SMSAs) in 1970. While the findings of earlier studies showing no gender differences in occupational status are for the most part replicated using the Duncan SEI, use of the Nam-Powers scores prompts a much different conclusion. Large status differences between men and women are indicated using this latter scale, differences which are very much in line with income differences commonly cited. We suggest that the Nam-Powers metric should be used instead of the Duncan SEI in studies of occupational status of women and men.     

Patterns of Childlessness among Catholic and Non-Catholic Women in the U.S.: A Log-Linear Analysis*

The principal objective of this paper is to conduct a log-linear analysis of patterns of childlessness among Catholic and non-Catholic women in the United States. We address this issue by examining white women between the ages of thirty-five and forty-four, ascertaining whether they are voluntarily, involuntarily, or temporarily childless or childed. Given the long-standing emphasis of the Catholic Church regarding the importance of children in marriage and the family, an emphasis which was not reversed during the Second Vatican Council, we suggest that even after controlling for religious activity and educational attainment, Catholic women should be less disposed than non-Catholic women to choose voluntarily to have no children. We review various aspects of Church doctrine leading to such an hypothesis. Our results do not suggest an “end” to Catholic-non-Catholic differentials in childlessness. Catholic women between the ages of thirty-five and forty-four in 1976 were very far apart from non-Catholic women with respect to the voluntary decision to have no children. And they are also very different from non-Catholic women regarding patterns of involuntary childlessness. These differential patterns of voluntary and involuntary childlessness are discussed and analyzed.     

Patterns of gay and lesbian partnering in the larger metropolitan areas of the United States

This paper had two objectives. First, we developed for each large metropolitan area of the United States with a population of 500,000 or more in 1990 four indexes of gay partnering and four indexes of lesbian partnering. We compared and related these indexes and their variable measurements with one another. Second, using what we argue is the statistically and demographically preferred set of gay and lesbian partnering rates, we proposed and tested an assortment of ecological hypotheses relating characteristics of the metropolitan areas with the gay and lesbian partnering rates. Rates of gay and lesbian partnering, we show, are more influenced by such metropolitan characteristics as physical climate and the crime rate than by a religious characteristic such as the number of Southern Baptist adherents. Among the conclusions of the paper is our claim that there needs to be greater consideration of the methodological issues related to the use of government data for the development of rates of gay and lesbian partnering.     

Patterns of economic attainment of foreign-born male workers in the United States

In 1980, only 3% of the US population was at least partly indigenous. Most of the present population of the US, except for the American Indians, Eskimos, Aleutian Islanders, and Hawaiians, has its ancestral roots outside of the US. The US is therefore a nation of immigrants. Although a nation of immigrants, the ancestral origins of most Americans are in the countries of Europe. In recent decades, however, the composition of the immigration stream to the US has changed dramatically with respect to origin. Most immigrants now hail from Asia and Latin America; Europe is no longer the main embarkation point. Given these recent changes in the points of origin of immigrants, the author investigated the economic attainment patterns and their determinants of the foreign-born male immigrant population in the US. The economic attainment patterns of males born in 92 countries are examined and compared among themselves, as well as among the principal US-born groups of Anglos, Afro-American, Mexican Americans, Puerto Ricans, Cuban Americans, Asian Americans, and American Indians. For all foreign-born groups, the article examines the degree to which such individual-level factors as educational attainment, labor market experience, and other factors account for their variation in economic attainment. It is concluded that although microlevel characteristics are not the complete answer, they help explain the variations in earnings among most foreign-born populations.     

北京市流动人口数量变动历史趋势分析

本文探讨了北京市流动人口规模变动的历史过程.研究结果表明北京市流动人口规模受到政府政策和城市经济形势的明显影响在政策鼓励和经济发展迅速时,流动人口规模就大而且增长迅速.反之,则其规模小而且迅速减少虽然政策对流动人口有着显著的影响作用,但其影响作用不是无限的;同时,流动人口的增长也必须有一个合理的限度,而不能盲目发展.由此决定了对"流动人口"进行管理的基本思路是既不能盲目限制和排斥,又不能任其发展,听之任之.