Bayesian inference for stable Lévy–driven stochastic differential equations with high‐frequency data

In this paper, we consider parametric Bayesian inference for stochastic differential equations driven by a pure‐jump stable Lévy process, which is observed at high frequency. In most cases of practical interest, the likelihood function is not available; hence, we use a quasi‐likelihood and place an associated prior on the unknown parameters. It is shown under regularity conditions that there is a Bernstein–von Mises theorem associated to the posterior. We then develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference, and assisted with theoretical results, we show how to scale Metropolis–Hastings proposals when the frequency of the data grows, in order to prevent the acceptance ratio from going to zero in the large data limit. Our algorithm is presented on numerical examples that help verify our theoretical findings.     

Japanese Children’s Knowledge of the Facial Components of Basic Emotions

While numerous studies have investigated children’s recognition of facial emotional expressions, little evidence has been gathered concerning their explicit knowledge of the components included in such expressions. Thus, we investigated children’s knowledge of the facial components involved in the expressions of happiness, sadness, anger, and surprise. Four- and 5-year-old Japanese children were presented with the blank face of a young character, and asked to select facial components in order to depict the emotions he felt. Children’s overall performance in the task increased as a function of age, and was above chance level for each emotion in both age groups. Children were likely to select the Cheek raiser and Lip corner puller to depict happiness, the Inner brow raiser, Brow lowerer, and Lid droop to depict sadness, the Brow lowerer and Upper lid raiser to depict anger, and the Upper lid raiser and Jaw drop to depict surprise. Furthermore, older children demonstrated a better knowledge of the involvement of the Upper lid raiser in surprise expressions.     

Place, Culture, and the Social Amplification of Risk

This article investigates the role of culture in the social production of risks and risk communication surrounding industrial development in a region located at a rural-urban interface. A case study examined a public consultation that was undertaken to inform local residents about an eco-industrial development proposal being planned near Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The research employed the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) to examine the relationships among culture, place, and socially constructed risk. A total of 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews were carried out with 33 landowners (farmers, acreage owners), public officials (municipal politicians, administrators), journalists, and industry representatives. Analysis revealed that risk communication occurred in relation to situated experiences of place that were based on conflicting cultural worldviews. The research shows that place is a useful component of the SARF, providing a spatial explanation for why some people amplify, and others attenuate, risks in locally contentious environmental debates.     

Infinite Variation Tempered Stable Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes with Discrete Observations

We investigate transition law between consecutive observations of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes of infinite variation with tempered stable stationary distribution. Thanks to the Markov autoregressive structure, the transition law can be written in the exact sense as a convolution of three random components; a compound Poisson distribution and two independent tempered stable distributions, one with stability index in (0, 1) and the other with index in (1, 2). We discuss simulation techniques for those three random elements. With the exact transition law and proposed simulation techniques, sample paths simulation proves significantly more efficient, relative to the known approximative technique based on infinite shot noise series representation of tempered stable Lévy processes.     

Finding Hope in the Life of Young Part-timers

The objective of this article is to link the structural factor (employment structure) and subjective factor (notion of labor) concerned with the generation process of young part-timers (freeters) by considering their life histories in terms of hope. Based on the ongoing research conducted over a period of 5 years on three male freeters, the following facts have come to light. Freeters are located on the lower strata of full-time and part-time jobs. They cannot envision a future career path in either employment style. Due to current labor ethics, they cannot form a subgroup that acknowledges their employment style and present-time orientation. Under pressure from labor ethics, which insist that they do “decent” work, they cannot help but hope to escape from this double-bind. To put it briefly, present Japanese society needs flexible workers, on the one hand, but cannot permit them to be flexible on the other. This kind of structural tension drives the young workers to hope. But hope does not dissolve the structural tension. On the contrary, it works to prolong this structural tension itself.     

Inequality and education decisions in developing countries

In this paper we analyze the effect of inequality on school enrollment, preferred tax rate and expenditure per student in developing countries; when parents can choose between child labor, public schooling or private schooling. We present a model in which parents make schooling decisions for their children, weighing the utility benefit of having a child with formal public or private education versus the forgone income from child labor or household work. Parents vote over the preferred tax rate to finance freely provided public education. The utility benefit of an educated child is proportional to expenditure per student, so that there is congestion in public school. We find that when parents can send their children to work or to private school, high inequality leads to exit from public education at both ends of the income distribution. Thus high inequality reduces the support for public education, leading to a low tax rate and expenditure per student. Exit from public education results in both high child labor and a large fraction of students attending private school. In fact there is a threshold level of inequality above which there is no longer support for public education. In addition we explore the implications for the design of foreign aid. The results suggest that foreign aid policies should focus on promoting school attendance rather than increasing school resources, as the later policy might be offset by a reduction in the recipient country’s fiscal effort, with little impact on outcomes.      

Whose Heartland?: The politics of place in a rural–urban interface

This article advances a conceptualization of the rural–urban interface that is centred on a historically and spatially informed politics of place situated within local–global connections. The research is a case study of an inter-municipal development plan called Alberta's Industrial Heartland. Located near the City of Edmonton, in Alberta, Canada, the study area has been characterized by tremendous social, cultural, and economic shifts over the past century, from agriculture, to country residential in-migration, to intensive industrial development in response to the increasing importance of Alberta on the global energy market. A series of interviews conducted with residents, political officials, and other stakeholders documents how parallel, yet contested definitions of the ‘Heartland’ underpinned a ‘politics of place’ over land use change at the rural–urban interface.     

A Measure Whose Time has Come: Formalizing Time Poverty

Poverty remains a primary public policy issue, and a large literature has discussed the limitations of an income poverty measure. Using income as an indicator of poverty is a helpful simplification designed to capture ability to meet consumption needs. We argue that time is a basic economic resource allocated to create well-being along with income. Time is a scarce resource that individuals and households must allocate to produce goods, obtain services, and pursue rest and relaxation. Time poverty has been proposed as a complement to income poverty, yet it remains a relatively unknown measure in both policy and research spheres. The many ways time poverty is conceptualized and measured across studies has limited its adoption. To help familiarize readers with time poverty, we apply basic tenets of income poverty measurement to time. We conduct a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature discussing similarities, differences, and the pros and cons of different approaches to time poverty. In particular, inconsistent definition and categorization of necessary and discretionary time has been a barrier to the transparent application of time poverty in the literature, and we outline guidance on defining necessary and discretionary time for future studies. Finally, we outline future research directions for time poverty.     

Pictorial Approaches for Measuring Time Use in Rural Ethiopia

Time use researchers working in least developed countries (LDCs) face difficulties collecting data from illiterate populations who may conceptualize time differently than those in industrialized countries. We identify existing gaps in time use data collection methods and discuss two novel, pictorial methods to collect time use data from these populations. The first method is a modified recall interview modeled on participatory rural appraisal (PRA) methods that asks respondents to place macaroni on pictures of activity categories in proportion to the amount of time spent on that activity during the previous day. The second is a simplified pictorial time diary that uses a timer and sequentially-numbered stickers to re-create the temporal order of activities in 30-min increments. The latter method also avoids recall bias problems. We present time use data collected in 2009 using these methods in a study examining the impacts of water infrastructure on women and children’s time use in rural Ethiopia. In total, we collected information using the first method from 263 household members over age 10, including 167 water collectors, and pilot-tested the pictorial diary approach with 10 adult respondents.     

Contingent valuation method can increase procedural justice

We hypothesized that the contingent valuation method (CVM) can enhance the procedural justice of policy formation as perceived by people generally, which in turn increases public acceptance of policy. In Study 1, a survey (n=484) asked whether respondents would accept a one-off tax, the purpose of which would be to protect the natural environment of Yakushima Island, Japan. In one condition, the respondents were told that the amount of the one-off tax was determined using the CVM. In a second condition, no such instruction was given. In Study 2, 55 subjects were asked to indicate their acceptance, or otherwise, of a one-off tax for the protection of the natural environment of Yakushima Island when the tax was determined using the CVM, and when the tax was determined using cost–benefit analysis. The data from the survey and the experiment confirmed the hypothesis that the CVM enhanced the perceived procedural justice and acceptance of the tax.