Evaluating risk: global fees and episodic care

In 1999, two articles in The Physician Executive -- "Part I: Global Theory and the Nature of Risk (July-August)." and "Part II: Towards a Choice-Based Model of Managed Care (October-November)" -- outlined the flaws of orthodox managed care theory and highlighted the unique advantages of moving to a genuinely market-based model, which included the concept of direct contracting for integrated episodes of care. This follow-up focuses on comparing an episode contracting system to a traditional capitated program and outlines the features that make this approach much more attractive to physicians, payers, and most importantly patients.     

Who volunteers?

Summary The 1990 NHS and Community Care Act outlined an extended rolefor volunteers and voluntary organizations in the provisionof services for disabled adults and older people. In broad terms,the Act assumed an untapped pool of volunteers, ready to contributeat little additional cost to the provision of care. More recentpolicy developments, including Millennium Volunteers (ScottishOffice 1997) have made similar assumptions. For organizationswhich involve volunteers, the expectations of their increaseduse in service provision present considerable challenges, notleast in attracting new recruits and retaining existing volunteers.The research presented in this paper builds on previous workto explore the current practice and organization of volunteeringand to examine critically how far the reality matches the politicalrhetoric about the role of volunteers in the mixed economy ofcare. The paper begins with a critical review of recent policyand practice in volunteering to set the context which providedour key questions. The research methodology is briefly describedand the findings from a survey of 117 active volunteers workingwith adults with learning difficulties, mental health problemsand physical disabilities, and with older people in the Northof Scotland are presented. The research examines the demographyand personality profiles of the volunteers. It examines theirperceptions of volunteering as these relate to motivation, recruitment,selection, training, support, rewards and reasons for leaving.Finally, it examines volunteers' perceptions of the organizationof volunteering. The results are reviewed in relation to thepolicy assumptions about volunteering in the mixed economy ofcare.     

The impact of US tariffs against China on US imports: Evidence for trade diversion?

We provide evidence on the existence of short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries as a consequence of tariff shocks. We exploit sudden policy changes in the context of the trade dispute between the United States and China in 2018. Based on a data set covering monthly product-level information on US imports from 30 countries for the period 2016 until May 2019, we employ a difference-in-differences estimation framework. Doing so, we can show a strong negative direct effect of US tariffs on US imports from China, but do not find evidence for significant short-run trade diversion effects towards third countries.     

Effects of facial expression and stare duration on walking speed: Two field experiments

Two field experiments investigated the generality of the stare-escape phenomenon for pedestrians. Experiment 1, conducted at a traffic intersection, failed to replicate a previous finding that being stared at leads to faster walking speed. One hypothesis that could explain this failure is that the relatively short staring times used in Experiment 1 were insufficient for subjects to attribute a threatening meaning to the stare. In Experiment 2, conducted at a library elevator, duration of staring was systematically varied—either 2 seconds or more than 15 seconds. Consistent with the attribution time hypothesis, subjects increased walking speed after a long stare but decreased it after a short stare. In both experiments a smile coupled with a stare appeared to neutralize the effects of a stare alone.The authors would like to thank Clyde Hendrick for his valuable comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Pornographic Picture Processing Interferes with Working Memory Performance

Some individuals report problems during and after Internet sex engagement, such as missing sleep and forgetting appointments, which are associated with negative life consequences. One mechanism potentially leading to these kinds of problems is that sexual arousal during Internet sex might interfere with working memory (WM) capacity, resulting in a neglect of relevant environmental information and therefore disadvantageous decision making. In this study, 28 healthy individuals performed 4 experimental manipulations of a pictorial 4-back WM task with neutral, negative, positive, or pornographic stimuli. Participants also rated 100 pornographic pictures with respect to sexual arousal and indicated masturbation urges previous to and following pornographic picture presentation. Results revealed worse WM performance in the pornographic picture condition of the 4-back task compared with the three remaining picture conditions. Furthermore, hierarchical regression analysis indicated an explanation of variance of the sensitivity in the pornographic picture condition by the subjective rating of the pornographic pictures as well as by a moderation effect of masturbation urges. Results contribute to the view that indicators of sexual arousal due to pornographic picture processing interfere with WM performance. Findings are discussed with respect to Internet sex addiction because WM interference by addiction-related cues is well known from substance dependencies.     

The relative importance of ethnicity and religion in predicting attitudes towards gays and lesbians

Using data from a sample of college students from several campuses throughout the United States, this research examines whether ethnic differences (African Americans versus European Americans) in attitudes toward gays and lesbians are a function of religious attendance. Multiple regressions were run separately for attitudes towards lesbians and attitudes toward gay men. When predicting attitudes toward lesbians, ethnic differences were present in the absence of religious attitudes; however, when religious attitudes were entered into the model, ethnic differences disappeared. In predicting attitudes toward gay men, ethnic differences were never present, while religious attitudes were always statistically significant. We conclude that differences in attitudes toward homosexuals in general, and gay men specifically, are not necessarily a function of ethnicity but possibly of religious attendance and the effect of the "Black church." We end with a discussion of the link between ethnicity, religion, HIV/AIDS, and heterosexism in the African American community.     

论姚燮的山水词

姚燮山水词有多种面貌和寄寓.居所、园林环境的山水词,多词章婉丽、情致懿雅之作.游观、羁旅中的山水词,有的写景气象阐大,展示了壮阔的境界和襟怀;有的写景清雅,心境恬适;较多的词则以写山水景物慰客愁、证鸿爪,寄偃蹇、羁旅的人生况味,骚雅微婉.题写画意的山水词,再现了画境,并在非现实的词境中展示了人格和生活理想,具有清旷、萧然、闲适之美;词中有画,擅长意象取用和意象组合,讲究色彩效果和远近高低虚实等构图技巧,并重视整体浑融的效果.     

Profitability of Service‐Level‐Based Price Differentiation with Inventory Rationing

In this paper, we study the profitability of service‐level‐based price differentiation (SLBPD) in an inventory‐rationing context. SLBPD implies that a company offers several combinations of prices and guaranteed service levels, from which customers self‐select; different customers choose different offerings because they incur different shortage costs if an order is not fulfilled immediately. We develop an analytical model for SLBPD and explore if and when such a service differentiation strategy yields higher profits than a single undifferentiated offering. The results of our analyses suggest that SLBPD is profitable only if a company faces pricing restrictions, e.g., because of competitive pressure or regulatory restrictions. We develop necessary and sufficient conditions under which a specific and relevant form of SLBPD (called “service‐level‐based upselling”) is profitable, and provide an algorithm to compute the optimal parameters of such a policy. Based on this algorithm we carry out numerical analyses that allow us to characterize the profit increment of service‐level‐based upselling. We derive managerial insights into the attractiveness of SLBPD and explain how our basic analytical framework can be extended to account for more complex practical features.     

Information aggregation and preference heterogeneity in committees

This paper is concerned with the efficiency of information aggregation in a committee whose members have heterogeneous preferences over a binary decision variable. We study a voting game with a pre-vote communication stage and identify conditions under which full information aggregation is possible. In particular, if preferences are common knowledge and each committee member is endowed with information, full information aggregation is possible despite preference heterogeneity.