Energy modelling: A new challenge for management science

The Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the subsequent price rises and production restrictions have given birth to a distinct branch within Management Science: energy modelling. This paper gives a critical and selective review on energy modelling, an industry which though thriving in an era of general economic anxiety, is showing signs of arrogant immaturity. After giving a historical background, the paper classifies energy models into three groups: open loop demand or supply models; energy closed loop models; energy-economy closed loop models. For each group the problem area is analysed and some illustrative examples are described. In the last sections, an attempt is made to sum up the experience that has been gained with energy modelling: the basic deficiencies, the impact of this activity on policy formulation and its position within Management Science. It is concluded that energy models, though very poor forecasting devices, can be very useful to policy makers as tools for analysis; energy model developers must convince potential model users and for that purpose they can benefit immensely from the 35-year-long experience accumulated by their colleagues in Management Science.     

Large scale communication networks—Design and analysis

The paper discusses the problem of design and analysis of large scale communication systems. An iterative process, composed of a minimum cost network design algorithm and a network performance algorithm, is presented for the solution of these problems. Computational considerations, using these algorithms, are discussed.     

Neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality in a rural area of Bangladesh

Abstract An analysis of neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality in 132 villages (population of 117,000) of Matlab thana indicates the following: (i) Neo-natal deaths accounted for 60% of the infant mortality rate of 125. This proportion was unexpectedly high since previous research had maintained that in countries with infant mortality rates over 100, neo-natal deaths account for less than one-third of all infant deaths. Since the present findings on the proportions of neo-natal deaths correspond exactly with results from an earlier registration system in East Pakistan, it is suggested that the long-accepted proposition, 'less developed' areas are characterized by lower proportions of neo-natal deaths than 'more developed' areas, be re-examined. (2) The infant death rate accounts for 36% of all deaths in the population. If the infant death rate were reduced by half the result would be a decrease in the current crude death rate from 16 to 13. Although this reduction would appear to be small, in the context of a current high growth rate of 3% (from 1966-67 to 1968-69) it exerts a sizeable impact. For example, it would take a reduction of eight points in the crude birth rate of 46 just to achieve a growth rate 2·5% under these circumstances. Obviously, continued efforts in death control without an effective birth control programme will perpetuate high rates of growth. (3) Neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality exhibited the -expected 'U' shaped pattern with parity, and generally varied as expected with age and family size, except in the oldest age group and largest family size where the risk was smaller than in the preceding groups. An explanation for these findings is presented, based on the effect that births to high-parity women with low child mortality have upon the total neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality rates. It was found that these births exhibit a much lower mortality risk than births to women of comparable parities and higher child mortality, and that their numbers account for the lower risk to the births in the oldest age group and largest family size. It was concluded that women with a combination of high parity and low child mortality most probably represent a group with superior socio-economic and or health conditions which contribute to the lower risk of neo-natal and post-neo-natal death.     

The use of strategic planning techniques in the United Kingdom

In this paper some of the techniques available for strategic planning are reviewed. Four techniques are presented, the experience curve, the growth-share matrix, the directional policy matrix and the PIMS program. The results of a survey into the use of these techniques in the United Kingdom are also presented.     

近四十年来韩国《史记》研究综述（1971—2010）

《史记》是中国史学中一部继往开来的不朽巨著,作者司马迁开创的以人物为中心的纪传体,在汉代以后一直是历代王朝正史所沿用的体制。司马迁修《史记》,不仅尊重历史事实,秉笔直书,而且还注意语言文字的锤炼,文句优美。他将叙事、抒情、说理的不同文体有机地综合起来,达到思想上、艺术上的高度统一,为后代文史创作提供了范例。《史记》不仅是中国纪传体史书的开创者,而且对后世的散文、小说、戏曲都产生了深远的影响。同时它也早已流传至国外,在汉文化圈国家中亦有不小的影响。其中,《史记》传入韩国,特别受到韩国知识界人士的关心和推崇,为韩国学术界所重视。到了1960年代中期,随着国家经济的发展,韩国整个社会的发展进入了一个历史的新时期,不仅国家面貌发生了根本性变化,学术文化事业也步入正轨,同时韩国学术界对中国学术文化的关心及研究也重新得到了高度重视。正是在这样的基础上,韩国学者对《史记》的翻译和研究有了较大的进展,在传播、普及和通俗化方面作出了积极的贡献。本文除简述《史记》在韩国的流传背景外,还分别论述自1971年至2010年近四十年来《史记》在当代韩国的翻译介绍与研究现状,并对其研究成果上存在的一些不足和空缺作一番客观的评价。     

The Impact of Family Planning on Fertility in a Rural Area of East Pakistan

This pape revaluates a family planning pilot project conducted by the Pakistan Academy for Rural Development in Comilla, East Pakistan. The evaluation is based upon an analysis of the extent to which adoption of conventional contraceptives (condoms and foam tablets) has reduced fertility in selected villages of the Comilla-Kotwali precinct, during the years 1962-66.The study was carried out by comparing adopter and non-adopter rates of pregnancy and analyzing the trends in pregnancy reduction that resulted from adoption. The findings indicate that (1) although the pregnancy rate of adopters has increased steadily throughout the time period, in 1966 the rate is still less than half of what was expected had adoption not occurred; (2) contraceptive use-effectiveness decreases with length of time of use; and (3) pregnancy reduction has been declining since 1964.     

Infant mortality trends in rural East Pakistan

Infant mortality trends in a rural area of East Pakistan are analyzed utilizing the Bogue pregnancy history technique. The findings indicate that infant mortality has declined slightly over 20 percent between 1958 and 1967. The existence of development programs in women’s education and family planning since 1961 are proposed as possible reasons for this finding. A convergence in infant mortality rates to mothers in the age range 15–39 years was found in the final year under analysis, while the standard U shaped pattern of infant mortality with age structure was exhibited in the previous years. One possible explanation for the convergence is that the development programs are reaching women within this age range more equally than in the past. An alternative explanation relating to the problems of recall of mortality events was discussed.     

A methodological approach to strategic petroleum reserves

Energy constitutes a small fraction of the production inputs in the economy, yet the rigidity imposed by the short and medium term inability to substitute energy with other production factors in case of an energy shortage, requires the establishment of safeguard mechanisms to ensure sufficient energy supply during an emergency. These safeguards usually take the form of strategic energy reserves. A methodological approach is presented here, relating the level of strategic petroleum reserves, the decision variable, with the costs associated with their storage and the economic losses incurred by an energy shortage. This approach is based on the use of a decision tree, to portray emergency scenarios. Each scenario, a branch of the decision tree, can be evaluated in terms of a cost function which includes the inventory procurement and maintenance cost and the shortage cost inflicted by a petroleum shortfall.     

Route first—Cluster second methods for vehicle routing

In this paper we consider route first—cluster second methods for the vehicle routing problem. Extensions to the basic method both to improve its effectiveness and to enable it to cope with practical constraints are described. Computational results are given for the method applied to standard vehicle routing problems drawn from the literature.