CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

The PALS parenting support programme: lessons learned from the evaluation of processes and outcomes

Although there has recently been a rise in parenting support programmes within the UK, only a minority of these programmes have benefited from evaluation of either outcomes or processes. This paper describes the development of the PALS programme (Parents Altogether Lending Support), reporting both on its effectiveness in improving parents' interactions with their children and on the lessons that were learned about embedding such a programme within the local community. Over the 18‐month period of the programme, a total of 17 courses were run, with 75 parents and carers (primarily mothers) participating in the programme overall. Evaluation results indicated that participants enjoyed the course and found it beneficial, particularly in terms of altering their own actions in specific ways that were able to promote better behaviour on the part of their children. Participants also valued the opportunity to share their experiences with other parents. The key lesson identified in regard to the development of parenting programmes concerned the need for the community to feel a sense of ownership for the initiative. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Farm Crisis and Mental Health: A Longitudinal Study of the 1980s1

Abstract This paper examines rural/urban differences and trends in mental health during the farm crisis of the 1980s in a large panel sample from a midwestern state. A community research perspective, which attributes differences to life styles, culture, and community context, is contrasted with an economic stress perspective, which focuses on individual differences in economic circumstances as determinants of rural-urban differences in mental health. Survey samples from 1981, 1986, and 1989 are used to examine differences among seven categories of community type. Multiple regression analysis of the trend and panel data provide support for both the individual economic distress and community context models.     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Prehistoric landscapes of the sonoran desert Hohokam

The Hohokam of southern Arizona are noted for greater duration of settlement than other major agricultural traditions in the archaeological record of the southwestern United States, including the Anasazi and Mogollon. The 40,000 square mile area inhabited by the Hohokam is marked by low elevation desert basins, but encompasses a range of topographic and climatic variability that shaped opportunities for prehistoric farming technologies. Irrigation from rivers was frequently associated with the longterm persistence of individual sites, while floodwater farming along ephemeral drainages was more often correlated with continuous occupation of hydrologically favored zones. Renewal of fields by waterborne nutrients and efficient practices in the use of natural resources countered the limited mobility options afforded by the Hohokam environment.In spite of a restrictive agricultural setting and an essentially static suite of productive technologies over many centuries, relationships among population, settlement, and landuse were redefined in evolving social and economic configurations. An example from the Tucson Basin illustrates differentiated patterns of settlement and agriculture arising in conjunction with increased levels of population and territorial integration in the late prehistoric period. Community organization among interrelated settlements incorporated a diversity of topographic zones and agricultural technologies in this high-risk context for prehistoric cultivators.     

Building Health Insurance Literacy: Evidence from the Smart Choice Health Insurance™ Program

With the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010, the health insurance literacy of Americans became a critical issue. In response, a consumer education program was created and tested by university researchers and educators associated with Cooperative Extension. This article draws extensively on the emerging literature on health insurance literacy and on data from participants in the Smart Choice Health Insurance? program. The intent of the study was to understand socio-demographic and environmental variables that predict initial health insurance literacy and gains in health insurance literacy. A standardized instrument measuring health insurance literacy was used to collect the data. Multivariate analysis showed higher income consumers demonstrated greater initial health insurance literacy scores compared to middle income consumers, whereas younger, male and lower educated consumers reported lower initial health insurance literacy. After participating in the Smart Choice Health Insurance? program, consumers who made greater gains in their health insurance literacy tended to be female, higher income, and consumers residing in states that showed supportiveness of the ACA. The findings highlight the importance of considering sociodemographic characteristics in program design and delivery, as well as how contextual issues, such as the political environment, might impact the delivery of educational efforts. Findings from the analyses help inform ways to adapt and tailor educational opportunities that focus on health insurance literacy for a range of consumers.