Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Income Inequality across the Rural-Urban Continuum in the United States, 1970–2016*

The growth in macro-level income inequality in the United States is well established, but less is known about patterns of inequality at subnational scales and how they vary between and within rural and urban localities. Using data from the Decennial Census and American Community Survey, we produce estimates of within-county income inequality from 1970 to 2016 and analyze differences in inequality levels, the persistence of high (low) inequality, and populations' exposure to high (low) inequality across the rural-urban continuum. We find that income inequality has historically been higher in non-metropolitan than metropolitan counties, but inequality levels converged by 2016 due to growing inequality in metropolitan counties. Additionally, levels of inequality were generally persistent within counties over time, except that counties characterized by low inequality in 1970 were unlikely to remain as such in 2016. Third, non-trivial shares of the metropolitan population resided in low-inequality contexts in 1970, but virtually none of the U.S. population resided in such places by 2016. Residence in high-inequality counties is normative in rural and urban America. This statistical analysis provides an updated portrait of income inequality across the rural-urban continuum, and should spur additional research on stratification in rural America during an era of growing inequality.     

Erratum to: Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which point to the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

Adolescent Health and Well‐Being in the Twenty‐First Century: A Global Perspective

Adolescence is a critical developmental period with long‐term implications for the health and well‐being of the individual and for society as a whole. The most significant factors to adolescents' health are found in their environments, and in the choices and opportunities for health‐enhancing or health‐compromising behaviors that these contexts present (e.g., exposure to violence, supportive families). Inadequate contexts represent a failure to invest in and protect adolescents, a choice to alienate rather than integrate them into society. This article describes a number of societal trends, including growing poverty and income disparities, government instability, the changing health‐care system, the spread of HIV/AIDS, increased migration and urbanization, changing family and cultural contexts, and new information technology. The health implications of these trends for the well‐being of adolescents in the 21st century are contemplated.     

Hurricane Katrina: Who Stayed and Why?

This paper contributes to the growing body of social science research on population displacement from disasters by examining the social determinants of evacuation behavior. It seeks to clarify the effects of race and socioeconomic status on evacuation outcomes vis-a-vis previous research on Hurricane Katrina, and it expands upon prior research on evacuation behavior more generally by differentiating non-evacuees according to their reasons for staying. This research draws upon the Harvard Medical School Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group’s 2006 survey of individuals affected by Hurricane Katrina. Using these data, we develop two series of logistic regression models. The first set of models predicts the odds that respondents evacuated prior to the storm, relative to delayed- or non-evacuation; the second group of models predicts the odds that non-evacuees were unable to evacuate relative to having chosen to stay. We find that black and low-education respondents were least likely to evacuate prior to the storm and among non-evacuees, most likely to have been unable to evacuate. Respondents’ social networks, information attainment, and geographic location also affected evacuation behavior. We discuss these findings and outline directions for future research.     

Income inequality, race, and child well-being: an aggregate analysis in the 50 United States

Interest in income inequality as a predictor of health has exploded since the mid-1990s. Recent analyses suggest, however, that the effect of income inequality on population health is not robust to a control for the racial composition of the population. That observation raises two interpretational questions. First, does income inequality have an independent effect on population health? Second, what does the effect of racial composition on population health mean? We use data from the Urban Institute's Assessing the New Federalism project and the Kids Count Databook to evaluate the aggregate effects of income inequality on diverse measures of child well-being (e.g., infant mortality, high school drop-out rates) in the 50 U.S. states. We replicate the finding that, net of the racial/ethnic composition of the population, the effects of income inequality are not significant. Moreover, the effects of racial composition on child well-being appear to be compositional (i.e., they reflect the less positive outcomes observed among racial/ethnic minorities) rather than contextual (i.e., representing the independent influence of social context). Whereas cross-level effects are still possible, our results cast doubt on the health relevance of these aggregate characteristics of the population.     

A Demographic Deficit? Local Population Aging and Access to Services in Rural America, 1990–2010

Population aging is being experienced by many rural communities in the United States, as evidenced by increases in the median age and the high incidence of natural population decrease. The implications of these changes in population structure for the daily lives of the residents in such communities have received little attention. We address this issue in this study by examining the relationship between population aging and the availability of service‐providing establishments in the rural United States between 1990 and 2010. Using data mainly from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we estimate a series of fixed‐effects regression models to identify the relationship between median age and establishment counts net of changes in overall population and other factors. We find a significant but nonlinear relationship between county median age and the total number of service‐providing establishments, and counts of most specific types of services. We find a positive effect of total population size across all of our models. This total population effect is consistent with that found in other research, but the independent effect of age structure that we observe represents a novel finding and suggests that age structure is a salient factor in local rural development and community well‐being.     

Does crop diversity at the village level influence child nutrition security? Evidence from 11 sub-Saharan African countries

Population and Environment - Diversifying crop production has been proposed as a means of reducing food and nutrition insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa, but previous empirical studies yield mixed...     

Marriage,Work, and Racial Inequalities in Poverty: Evidence From the United States

This article explores recent racial and ethnic inequalities in poverty, estimating the share of racial poverty differentials that can be explained by variation in family structure and workforce participation. The authors use logistic regression to estimate the association between poverty and race, family structure, and workforce participation. They then decompose between‐race differences in poverty risk to quantify how racial disparities in marriage and work explain observed inequalities in the log odds of poverty. They estimate that 47.7% to 48.9% of Black–White differences in poverty risk can be explained by between‐group variance in these two factors, while only 4.3% to 4.5% of the Hispanic–White differential in poverty risk can be explained by these variables. The findings underscore the continued but varied association between racial disparities in poverty and labor and marriage markets. Clear racial differences in the origin of poverty suggest that policy interventions will not have uniformly effective impacts on poverty reduction.