Comparison of household-survey estimates with projections of mortality and orphan numbers in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of HIV/AIDS

The United Nations publishes estimates of HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and orphan numbers for all countries of the world. It is important to assess the validity of these model-based estimates since they underpin much policy concerned with care and prevention. Household surveys that ask questions about the survival of children's parents (orphanhood) offer an independent source of data with which these estimates can be compared. Survey estimates of maternal and paternal orphans are significantly lower than model estimates for 40 surveys in 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa (p < 0.001, p = 0.002). This is probably because adult mortality from causes other than AIDS is lower than assumed in the models, although under-reporting of orphanhood in surveys may also play a role. Reducing adult mortality from causes other than AIDS brings the model estimates into close agreement with the surveys. This suggests that the fraction of orphans attributable to AIDS is greater than estimated previously.     

Mortality transition in the Ovamboland region of Namibia, 1930-1990

Few long-term statistical series exist that can document the mortality transition in Africa. This paper uses data from the parish registers of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in Namibia to study morality in Ovamboland between 1930 and 1990. The paper identifies significant discontinuities and reversals in the trend in mortality. Much of the mortality transition occurred in a rapid breakthrough concentrated between the early 1950s and early 1960s. Adult mortality fell more than existing model life tables would predict and the pattern of relatively high early-age mortality typical of modern Africa emerged only at this time. While a range of developments in Ovamboland contributed to the overall decline in mortality, the most important factor was the establishment, by the Finnish Mission, of a Western system of health care. In Ovamboland, the drive to 'good health at low cost' was articulated not through political institutions but through the church.     

The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey

Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility decline from 1955 to 1996. Having identified and adjusted for several errors in the 1996 Census data, the paper argues that total fertility at that time was 3.2 children per woman nationally, and 3.5 children per woman for African South Africans. These levels are lower than in any other sub-Saharan African country. We show also that fertility in South Africa has been falling since the 1960s. Thus, fertility transition predates the establishment of a family planning programme in the country in 1974.     

An assessment of methods for estimating adult mortality from two sets of data on maternal orphanhood

Survey and census data about the survival of respondents’ mothers have been used widely for the estimation of adult mortality. Four methods are described that combine two sets of orphanhood data and yield estimates for the intersurvey period. They are applied to enquiries conducted in Peru, Kenya, and Malawi. This provides improved estimates of recent mortality and also clarifies the nature of the errors that affect the basic data. Age misreporting and other errors affect the information about older respondents and orphanhood of children is sometimes underreported. In contrast, data supplied by young adults seem plausible.     

秦汉律的罚金刑

秦律的赀罚与二年律令的罚金虽然名称完全不同,但两者具有继承关系。秦律的赀二甲是对盗窃额未满110钱-22钱的处罚,赀一盾是对未满22钱-1钱的处罚。秦律的这些内容由二年律令继承。赀罚原来分为赀一盾、赀二盾、赀一甲、赀二甲等四个等级,后来赀二盾逐渐消失,形成赀一盾、赀一甲、赀二甲三个等级,这三个等级的比例为1:2:4,与二年律令的罚金一两、二两、四两的比例关系相一致。赀一盾的罚额为672钱,与罚金一两的价额625钱相差不大。赀一盾的价额672钱与秦律规定的日均劳动价额8钱有关,以一日劳役为八钱计算,672钱相当于服役84天的价额。汉代的罚金制度与赎刑重复,尚未形成完整的体系,直至晋律,才将汉代的罚金精简为五个等级。     

Measurement of adult mortality in less developed countries: a comparative review

"This paper compares the direct and indirect methods used to measure adult mortality in the developing world. No other approach can substitute fully for accurate and complete vital registration, but in many countries it is unrealistic to expect the registration system to cover the majority of the population in the foreseeable future.... The difficulties involved in measuring adult mortality using surveys and other ad hoc inquiries are discussed.... While the choice of methods must depend on each country's situation, direct questions require very large samples and are unreliable in single-round inquiries. On the other hand, although indirect methods provide less detailed and up-to-date information than is ideal, they are adequate for many practical purposes. In particular, the experience of the 1980s suggests that questions about orphanhood perform better than earlier assessments indicated, and recent methodological developments have circumvented some of the limitations of the indirect approach."