Does population aging produce increasing gerontocracy?

As the population of the United States grows older, we might expect the role of the elderly to change. Among the many questions that could be asked about changes in the age stratification system, here we focus on the engagement of older persons in leadership roles. The period covered is roughly 1940 to the present, and the areas of leadership examined are representation in Congress and in professional and managerial occupations. If age-specific rates of representation remain constant over time, the proportion of leadership positions filled by older persons will increase at the same pace that the proportion of the adult population age sixty-five and over is increasing. On the other hand, if changes are occurring in the age stratification system, the role of the elderly in leadership may be either decreasing or increasing more rapidly than the population is aging. The data examined here show that over the past several decades the engagement of older persons in leadership positions has declined rapidly.     

The Social Separation of Old and Young: A Root of Ageism

Ageism has been the focus of numerous publications, while age segregation is a neglected topic. Ageism on a micro-individual level is linked to segregation on a macro level in a segregation-ageism cycle. Possible linking mechanisms, which might help break this cycle, can be found on a meso level of social networks—their structure and functions. Data from the United States and the Netherlands show that non-family networks are strongly age homogeneous. Based on earlier work by a range of scholars, we suggest that time, group identity, perspective-taking, and affective ties are factors that must be considered with regard to the functions of networks. Addressing meso level mechanisms poses challenges to social policy as well as research.     

Demographic correlates of group achievement: contrasting patterns of Mexican-Americans and Japanese-Americans

Patterns of family size, family stability, and timing of family formation characteristic of Mexican-Americans are contrasted with those of Japanese-Americans, and consequences of their demographic differences for group achievement are explored. Mexican-Americans are found to have a demographic system marked by young ages at marriage, young ages at beginning of childbearing, high rates of reproduction, and high rates of marital instability. Japanese-Americans display just the opposite pattern of behavior on each of these variables. Using existing research on determinants of individual achievement, reasons are then suggested why the demographic environment encountered by Japanese-American youth is more conducive to educational and economic achievement than is that encountered by Mexican-American youth.     

Measuring the quality of economic forecasts

Most evaluations of forecasts have hitherto been primarily based on measure of statistical accuracy. Attention is drawn to the need for concentrating instead on the forecast components bearing on managerial decisions and on the economic effects of such decisions. The method suggested highlights the changing locus of the most influential errors over various time horizons. It also takes account of the economic consequences of under-estimates and over-estimates in forecasting, as well as of the penalties of belated correcting actions. Finally, some broader implications of this approach are discussed.     

A study of cohort life cycles: Cohorts of native born Massachusetts women, 1830-1920

Abstract This paper expands the conceptual apparatus offamily life cycle analysis and illustrates its usefulness by applying it to a population. There is a normatively sanctioned life cycle that a female born into American society is expected to follow as she moves from birth to death: she is expected to survive through childhood, marry, bear and rear children, and survive jointly with her husband until her children leave the home. Paul Glick, in several articles, has calculated mean ages at which these various events are experienced. The life cycle analysis proposed here, however, focuses on the distribution of women according to type of life cycle experienced. Starting with a cohort of 100,000 females, six alternative life cycle possibilities are differentiated and the number who follow each of the types is calculated. The six types are: (1) abbreviated, the female dies before she is exposed to the risk of marriage; (2) spinster, the woman is exposed to the risk of marriage but does not marry; (3) barren, the woman marries but remains childless; (4) dying mother, the woman has children but dies before the last one leaves home; (5) widowed mother, the woman has children and survives until they leave home, but her husband dies before that event; and (6) typical, the woman marries, has children, and survives jointly with her husband until the last one leaves home. Applying this approach to several cohorts of native-born Massachusetts women born at different times some striking changes appear. For example, the number of women from a birth cohort of 100,000 who follow the typical life cycle increases from 21,000 for the cohort born in 1830 to 57,000 for the cohort born in 1920. The demographic, social and economic implications of a change of this magnitude are of considerable consequence.     

On a Class of Random Probability Measures with General Predictive Structure

Abstract. In this study, we investigate a recently introduced class of non‐parametric priors, termed generalized Dirichlet process priors. Such priors induce (exchangeable random) partitions that are characterized by a more elaborate clustering structure than those arising from other widely used priors. A natural area of application of these random probability measures is represented by species sampling problems and, in particular, prediction problems in genomics. To this end, we study both the distribution of the number of distinct species present in a sample and the distribution of the number of new species conditionally on an observed sample. We also provide the Bayesian Non‐parametric estimator for the number of new species in an additional sample of given size and for the discovery probability as function of the size of the additional sample. Finally, the study of its conditional structure is completed by the determination of the posterior distribution.     

American children in multiracial households

This study provides a demographic portrait of multiracial households, using children as the units of analysis. The authors conceptualize 3 dimensions for understanding multiracial qualities: 1) the racial composition of a household overall, 2) where in the household a racial difference exists relative to the household head, and 3) where in the household a racial difference exists relative to each child. Using microdata from the 1980 US census, the authors explore the 1st 2 of these dimensions and test 2 propositions about the links between racial diversity and other nonracial attributes of children's household environments. The finding is made, among other things, that the largest proportion of children live in Asian-white households, and that about 60% live in households headed by mixed-race couples. Support for the notion that attributes of multiracial households fall between those of their same-race counterparts was mixed. Nonetheless, there appears to be a link between location of diversity and some nonracial characteristics of household.