Higher-order Bayesian Approximations for Pseudo-posterior Distributions

The theory of higher-order asymptotics provides accurate approximations to posterior distributions for a scalar parameter of interest, and to the corresponding tail area, for practical use in Bayesian analysis. The aim of this article is to extend these approximations to pseudo-posterior distributions, e.g., posterior distributions based on a pseudo-likelihood function and a suitable prior, which are proved to be particularly useful when the full likelihood is analytically or computationally infeasible. In particular, from a theoretical point of view, we derive the Laplace approximation for a pseudo-posterior distribution, and for the corresponding tail area, for a scalar parameter of interest, also in the presence of nuisance parameters. From a computational point of view, starting from these higher-order approximations, we discuss the higher-order tail area (HOTA) algorithm useful to approximate marginal posterior distributions, and related quantities. Compared to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the main advantage of the HOTA algorithm is that it gives independent samples at a negligible computational cost. The relevant computations are illustrated by two examples.     

文化的多元性与少数民族双语教学

现代化是每个民族繁荣昌盛的必由之路,丧失现代化意味着民族的贫困;每个民族又应保在自己的优秀文化传统,丧失文化传统意味着民族的消亡。民族教育中正确处理好现代化与传统文化的关系,就要做到民族教育的现代化和现代教育的现代化。文章结合两个藏汉双语教学的典型实践,从文化的多元性角度,引发了对民族教育中双语教学问题的思考。     

Approximate Bayesian computation with composite score functions

Both approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and composite likelihood methods are useful for Bayesian and frequentist inference, respectively, when the likelihood function is intractable. We propose to use composite likelihood score functions as summary statistics in ABC in order to obtain accurate approximations to the posterior distribution. This is motivated by the use of the score function of the full likelihood, and extended to general unbiased estimating functions in complex models. Moreover, we show that if the composite score is suitably standardised, the resulting ABC procedure is invariant to reparameterisations and automatically adjusts the curvature of the composite likelihood, and of the corresponding posterior distribution. The method is illustrated through examples with simulated data, and an application to modelling of spatial extreme rainfall data is discussed.     

Grandparents,kinship ties,and belonging after migration: the perspective of second‐generation grandchildren

In this article, I investigate the roles of grandparents for second‐generation immigrants who live with their parents in a different country from their grandparents. I draw on in‐depth interviews with second‐generation Vietnamese immigrants living in the Czech Republic, where they are very often raised by Czech caregivers. The carers and the children are joined through the process of caregiving and become grandmothers and grandchildren to each other. The analysis focuses on how the interviewees make sense of, interpret, and understand their roles as grandchildren vis‐à‐vis their Czech and Vietnamese grandmothers. It shows how, after migration, the kinship ties are performed, negotiated, and reproduced on a micro level of everyday life, with tasks of caring, homeland visits, and a transnational/face‐to‐face maintenance of intimacy. The article concludes that grandparents play an important role in the grandchildren's sense of belonging both to their family kin and to the homeland.     

化学吸附制冷循环的热力学分析

在分析基本吸附制冷循环的基础上,建立了基本吸附制冷循环热力过程中的各个热量的计算表达式.针对氯化钙氨吸附制冷实验系统的两种典型工况(制冷工况和空调工况),就解吸终了温度和吸附终了温度对制冷性能的影响进行了热力计算和分析,明确了空调工况下制冷系统性能更好的原因,并对计算结果从热力学理论角度进行了分析验证.     

Identity Agents: Parents as Active and Reflective Participants in Their Children's Identity Formation

The paper introduces the concept of identity agents. This concept refers to those individuals who actively interact with children and youth with the intention of participating in their identity formation, and who reflectively mediate larger social influences on identity formation. This contrasts with the focus of mainstream research in the identity field that tends to portray adolescents as the sole reflective agents involved in mature identity development. The paper presents a theoretical analysis presenting the importance of the concept for the formulation of a comprehensive contextual theory of identity formation. The particulars of this concept are illustrated through the presentation of a qualitative report of religious parents actively encouraging their children's processes of identification, co‐participating in their children's identity's formation, and reflectively deliberating their parental roles and goals in regards to this process.     

Career Patterns of Qualified Social Workers: Discussion of a Recent Survey

Summary The article presents some of the findings of a recent surveyon the career paths of qualified social workers. The factorsinfluencing career progression, and particularly moves intomanagement, axe explored. Wastage rates and the relationshipbetween job characteristics and people's decision to leave socialwork are also discussed. Finally, the article looks at levelsof job satisfaction among social workers.