Exiting shelter: an epidemiological analysis of barriers and facilitators for families

This study examines the role of individual- and family-level factors in predicting the length of shelter stays for homeless families. Interviews were conducted with all families exiting one of six emergency family shelters in Worcester, Massachusetts, between November 2006, and November 2007. Analyses, using an ordinary least squares regression model, find that families with a positive alcohol or drug screen in the year prior stay 85 days longer than those without a positive screen; families leaving shelter with a housing subsidy stay 66 days longer than those leaving without a subsidy. Demographic factors, education, employment, health, and mental health are not found to predict shelter stay duration. Consistent with prior research, housing resources relate to families' time in shelter; with the exception of a positive substance abuse screen, individual-level problems are not related to their time in shelter. Efforts to expand these resources at the local, state, and national levels are a high priority.     

First Politics,Then Culture: Accounting for Ethnic Differences in Demographic Behavior in Kenya

Ethnic differences in demographic behavior tend to be disguised behind analytically opaque labels like “district” or “region,” or else subjected to simplistic cultural explanations. Drawing on new political economy, sociological theory and the political science literature on sub‐Saharan Africa, this article proposes an alternative explanatory model and tests it empirically with reference to Kenya. Access to political power and, through power, access to a state's resources—including resources devoted to clinics, schools, labor opportunities, and other determinants of demographic behavior—are advanced as the key factors underlying ethnic differences. District‐level estimates of “political capital” are introduced and merged with two waves of Demographic and Health Survey data. The effects on models of contraceptive use are explored. Results confirm that measures of political capital explain residual ethnic differences in use, providing strong support for a political approach to the analysis of demographic behavior.     

The effects of economic circumstances on British students' mental and physical health

Three-hundred sixty British university students completed a questionnaire providing information on demographic characteristics, financial circumstances, smoking, and drug and alcohol use. A 14-item inventory of physical symptoms, the short form 36 health survey (SF-36), and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) were used to assess their physical and psychological well-being. Except for physical functioning, all subscales of the SF-36 and the GHQ indicated levels of health significantly below population norms matched for age and sex. Poorer mental health was related to longer working hours outside the university and difficulty in paying bills. Students who had considered abandoning study for financial reasons had poorer mental health, lower levels of social functioning and vitality, and poorer physical health as indicated by variables on the SF-36. They were also heavier smokers. Students' personal debt was significantly associated with their knowing people involved in prostitution, crime, or drug dealing to help support themselves financially.     

The Effects of Questionnaire Translation on Demographic Data and Analysis

The collection of demographic data in developing and, increasingly, developed countries often requires the translation of a survey instrument. This article addresses the implications for data and analysis of two of the most common modes of translation. The first, the officially sanctioned—though not empirically verified—method, involves the pre-fieldwork production of a standardized translation of the template questionnaire into all or most languages in which interviews are expected to be conducted. The second, rarely acknowledged in the literature but quite common in the field, occurs where there is a mismatch between the language of the questionnaire available to the interviewer and the language in which the actual interview is conducted. In this case, it is up to the interviewer to translate from the language of the questionnaire to the language of the interview. Using the 1998 Kenya DHS, in which 23% of interviews were translated in this non-standardized manner, we explore the effects of the two translation modes on three indicators of measurement error and on estimated multivariate relations. In general we find that the effects of non-standardized translation on univariate statistics—including higher-order variance structures—are rather moderate. The effects become magnified, however, when multivariate analysis is used. This suggests that the advantages of—and also costs associated with—standardized translation depend on the ultimate purposes of data collection.

Undercounting Urban Residents in Bolivia: A Small-Area Study of Census-Driven Migration

Employing a small-area study approach in a single urban area in Bolivia, a country with high rates of internal circular migration, we describe how, in the months before the November 2012 census, local leaders and neighbors, concerned with maximizing the per capita resources their residential districts and rural communities could claim from central government, threatened to employ sanctions against absent individuals whom they judged to be regular residents. We use three types of data—a two-wave household survey, data from vehicle toll booths, and photographic logs of a minibus station—to show how these threats generated substantial movement out of the urban area, leading to an urban undercount of roughly 20 % of prime-age adults and 50 % of those aged at least 50. More generally, we argue that these data highlight how local leaders’ increasingly sophisticated attempts to shape data extend beyond the well-known examples from autocratic states. This is driven by a combination of intensive urban–rural connections, leaders’ greater democratic accountability to local voters, increasing fiscal transparency at the national level, increasing fiscal accountability of governments to transnational neoliberal institutions pushing “transparency” and “evidence-based” policy, and more overt talk about “resource sharing” that is rooted in an evidence-based planning paradigm. Since these structural conditions exist in many other developing countries, the possibility of equivalent urban undercounts in forthcoming censuses needs to be anticipated and avoided.     

Family Planning Programs for the 21st Century: Rationale and Design

Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition: Selected Perspectives. 2001. Edited by John B. Caster‐Line. National Research Council, Committee on Population. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Pp. xi + 271. N.p.g. ISBN: 0‐309‐07610‐2. Available online at http://www.nap.edu/books/0309076102/html/Rl.html

The Explanatory Power of Models. 2002. Edited by Robert Franck. Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Pp. x + 310. £74.00. ISBN: 1‐4020‐0867‐8.

Communism, Health and Lifestyle. The Paradox of Mortality Transition in Albania, 1950‐1990. 2001. By Arjan Gjonça. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Pp. ix + 227. US$69.95. ISBN: 0‐313‐31586‐8.

Historical Studies in Mortality Decline. 2002. By William H. Hubbard, Kari Pitkänen, Jürgen Schlumbohm, Sølvi Sogner, Gunnar Thorvaldsen, and Frans van Poppel. Oslo: Novus Forlag. Pp. 134. ISBN: 82‐7099‐360‐3.

Population and Society in Western European Port‐Cities. 2002. Edited by Richard Lawton and Robert Lee. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press. Pp. xx + 385. £18.95. ISBN: 0‐85323‐907‐X.

The Changing Face of Home: The Transnational Lives of the Second Generation. 2003. Edited by Peggy Levitt and Mary C. Waters. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Pp. xi + 408. US$39.95. ISBN: 0‐87154‐517‐9.

The Demography of Victorian England and Wales. 2000. By Robert Woods. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Pp. xxv + 447. £50.00. ISBN: 0‐521‐78254‐6.

The Life Table: Modelling Survival and Death. 2002. Edited by Guillaume Wunsch, Michel Mouchart, and Josianne Duchêne. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers (European Studies of Population, Volume 11). Pp. x + 306. £89.00. ISBN: 1‐4020‐0638‐1.     

Characteristics of Women in Consanguineous Marriages in Egypt, 1988–2000

This article reviews three mechanisms related to autonomy, wealth, and local cultural factors, which are said to underly the high prevalence of consanguineous marriage in Arab societies. It then assesses each of them empirically in two stages. The first uses a pooled dataset constituted by the most recent marriage cohorts in the 1992 and 2000 waves of the Egyptian Demographic and Health Surveys. Three results stand out. The frequency of consanguinity in the most recent marriage cohorts (i) is strongly correlated with the frequency among older cohorts, signaling the strong clustering of underlying institutional (and unobserved) supports; (ii) tends to be more common among women who are poorer in absolute term, though wealthier than average in their communities; and (iii) varies temporally and across the rural–urban divide in its relationship to women’s autonomy. A subsidiary analysis, using only the 2000 data, then identifies wealth and autonomy differences between first cousin patrilateral and matrilateral wives.     

Own‐Choice Marriage and Fertility in Turkey

Goode's foundational work on the fertility transition identified own‐choice marriage as a factor driving fertility decline, part of a widening repertoire of choice pertaining to marriage and childbearing. Yet research supporting this connection in today's transitional societies is scarce and somewhat contradictory, and it is unclear how other marital traditions, such as consanguineous marriage, shape this relationship. This study evaluates Goode's theorized connection using pooled Demographic and Health Survey data from Turkey, comparing children ever born, use of contraception, and parity progression across four types of marriage: own‐choice and arranged marriage and marriage to a cousin versus an unrelated spouse. Results are largely consistent with the idea that a move toward own‐choice marriage reflects a widening repertoire of choice that also leads to fertility decline. However, they also show that hybrid models like own‐choice marriage to a cousin tempers these effects.     

A test of the stranger-interviewer norm in the Dominican Republic

We offer the first empirical test of the ‘stranger-interviewer norm’, according to which interviewers in social, demographic, and health surveys should be strangers—not personally familiar with respondents. We use data from an experimental survey in the Dominican Republic that featured three types of interviewer: from out of town (outsiders); local but unknown to the respondent (local-strangers); and local with a previous relationship to the respondent (insiders). We were able to validate answers to up to 18 questions per respondent, mainly by checking official documents in their possession. Contrary to expectations derived from the stranger-interviewer norm, respondents were more reluctant to show the documents needed for validation when the interviewer was an outsider. Furthermore, and again at odds with the stranger-interviewer norm, we found no difference in accuracy by type of interviewer. Our results have important implications for the selection of survey interviewers in less developed and non-Western settings.     

Land cover change and fertility in West-Central Africa: rural livelihoods and the vicious circle model

The vicious circle argument, rooted in a neo-Malthusian tradition, states that resource scarcity increases the demand for child labor and leads to higher fertility. The rural livelihood framework, on the other hand, contends that households employ multiple strategies, only one of which involves adjusting their fertility levels as a response to environmental pressures. This study provides a unique test of both theories by examining the relationship between land cover change and fertility across hundreds of rural communities in four West-Central African countries. The findings reveal a complex relationship between natural capital and fertility. In communities where natural capital was initially low, a further decline in that capital is associated with both higher fertility preferences and levels. However, we find that fertility preferences and behavior are often discordant, with notable within-community differences in response to decline in natural capital across levels of household wealth.