The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population

The use of oil has changed world economies, social and political structures, and lifestyles beyond the effect of any other substance in such a short time. But oil supplies are limited. The peak of world oil production and the beginning of the irreversible decline of oil availability is clearly in sight. This paper examines the role of oil in two contexts: Its importance in countries almost entirely dependent on oil income, and the role of oil in world agricultural productivity. Possible alternatives to oil and its close associate, natural gas, are also examined. Countries almost solely dependent on oil income are chiefly those of the Persian Gulf region. The prosperity which oil has brought to these nations has resulted in a rapidly growing population which is not sustainable without oil revenues. World agriculture is now highly dependent on oil and natural gas for fertilizers and pesticides. Without these, agricultural productivity would markedly decline. As a base for the production of these materials, oil and natural gas are irreplaceable. Lifestyles and affluence in the post-petroleum paradigm will be quite different from today. World population will have to be reduced if it is to exist at any reasonable standard of living. At that time concern will be much more centered on obtaining basic resources, especially agricultural, by which to survive.     

Utilizing volunteer research assistants in epidemiologic studies

Utilizing volunteers in research-assistant roles can provide a new model for extending research dollars in epidemiologic studies of the elderly. This is increasingly important with a rapidly growing older population suffering from an increasing prevalence of disability, disease, and the related medical costs. During a two-year cross-sectional study of factors that predict health aging conducted by the Buck Center for Research in Aging in Marin County, California, 82 volunteers were recruited and trained to fill roles often held by paid research assistants. The key activities of telephone screening, interviewing, coding, and data entry were successfully completed by trained volunteers following standards and within a time frame comparable to similar studies. Volunteer research assistants contributed approximately 13,600 hours that resulted in a savings in personnel costs of over $100,000. Many of the people recruited and trained as volunteer research assistants were healthy older adults and retired workers. The project utilized their transferable skills and talents in an interesting and productive capacity.