The New York City neighborhood-based services strategy

The New York City Administration for Children's Services (ACS) instituted a neighborhood-based services system through the realignment of all foster care, preventive, and protective services along community district lines. ACS, with its community partners, also formed neighborhood-based networks to improve service coordination and collaboration among key community stakeholders and to shape a multisystem strategy tailored to each district informed by child welfare data. Based on analysis of neighborhood-specific census tract child welfare data, ACS initiated the Community Partnership to Strengthen Families project to address the disproportionate number of foster care placements originating from a small group of high-need communities, including Manhattan's Central Harlem. This article describes examples of specific strategies based on the Central Harlem experience.     

The prevalence of elder abuse and neglect in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis

ABSTRACT

Objective: The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of elder abuse and neglect in Iran.

Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and PsycINFO by the end of 2017. The prevalence was calculated based on the percentage or the amount reported in the studies. Heterogeneity was assessed by the I² statistic, and the data were combined using random effects model. The results were reported as the pooled estimates and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The review protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42017070744).

Results: A total of 16 studies involving 6,461 participants aged 60 years and over were included. The pooled prevalence for overall elder abuse was 45.7% (95% CI: 27.3–64.1, p < .001).

Discussion: The prevalence of elder abuse and neglect is substantial in the Iranian population aged 60 years and over. More research is needed to investigate the actual prevalence of elder abuse at the national level.     

Bayesian modelling of health insurance losses

The purpose of this paper is to build a model for aggregate losses which constitutes a crucial step in evaluating premiums for health insurance systems. It aims at obtaining the predictive distribution of the aggregate loss within each age class of insured persons over the time horizon involved in planning employing the Bayesian methodology. The model proposed using the Bayesian approach is a generalization of the collective risk model, a commonly used model for analysing risk of an insurance system. Aggregate loss prediction is based on past information on size of loss, number of losses and size of population at risk. In modelling the frequency and severity of losses, the number of losses is assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution, individual loss sizes are independent and identically distributed exponential random variables, while the number of insured persons in a finite number of possible age groups is assumed to follow the multinomial distribution. Prediction of aggregate losses is based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm which incorporates the missing data approach.     

Oil,Polity, and Civil Society: The Construction of a Hegemonic System in Iraq (1945–1958)

Conventional theories of political economy assume that dependency on natural resources, such as oil, have a negative impact on the development of a democratic political system. While there is a developed body of work that explains the different mechanisms that shape this relationship, one mechanism, the role of the civil society, remains mostly ungrasped. As a result, the aim of this paper is to expand our understanding of the group formation effect, first discussed by Michael Ross (2001), and unpack the mechanisms that underline it, by looking at the relationship between rent from oil production, the civil society, and the rise of authoritarianism in Iraq during the period of 1945–1958. We argue that examining the relationship between these variables will help us understand the past and the current situation in Iraq, and it will improve our knowledge of the political formations and activism in oil‐producing countries in general.     

Serving immigrant families and children in New York City's child welfare system

This article describes the efforts and special initiatives of New York City's Administration for Children's Services to improve services to immigrant and English language learner populations. Children's Services convened an immigration issues advisory subcommittee, created special tools for child welfare staff, collaborated with legal agencies to assist foster children with immigration status adjustments, improved agency data collection, and launched an agency-wide training initiative on immigration issues. The challenges encountered by Children's Services offer important insight for child welfare agencies in other jurisdictions designing strategies to strengthen their services for immigrant communities.     

Gender, Social Change, and Living Arrangements Among Older Egyptians During the 1990s

We compare older Egyptian women’s and men’s propensities to live with unmarried children only, any ever-married children, and alone, and we assess “kin-keeping” versus “modernization” hypotheses about the effects of social change on living arrangements during 1988–2000. Socioeconomic differences among women and men accounted for much of their crude differences in living arrangements during the period. Propensities to live with any ever-married children declined, and propensities to live alone or with unmarried children only rose. Compared to men, women continued to live more often with any ever-married children and less often with unmarried children only, and the 1988 gender gap in solitary residence disappeared by 2000. Increasing coresidential demands from unmarried dependent children, less frequent coresidential support from ever-married children, and rapidly increasing rates of solitary living especially among older men suggest emerging needs for non-coresidential instrumental support, especially among older Egyptians who are economically disadvantaged.

The Phenomenology of Earnings Management within the Confines of Agency Theory

Agents' selective and acceptable reporting of economic events by different accounting systems, compounded by alternative accounting methods and estimates, make financial statements an approximation of economic reality. The tendency to delay accounting recognition of some transactions suggests that financial statements lag behind reality. The difference between reality and imaginary is often referred to as the agency problem. An essential characteristic of this problem is risk attitudes of principals (shareholders) and agents (management). Shareholders are considered risk neutral in their preferences for individual firms. They are in a position to diversify their shareholdings across multiple firms. Agents on the other hand have security and income that are inextricably linked to one firm. It would not be surprising to find agents exhibiting risk aversion in decisions regarding the firm. Immediately one's attention is drawn to the opportunity costs that arise for the risk-neutral shareholders who prefer that agents maximize their returns. The risk differential between agents and principals creates a problem in principal-agent relationship. It is within this framework that supervisory and incentive alignment mechanisms that alter the risk orientation of agents are set up. Powerful incentives act upon agents as they exercise their judgment, particularly when the judgment can trigger a stock market response that will, in turn, affect the firm in numerous ways. The responsibility of agents is to manage earnings. From a principal's perspective not all of the methods used to achieve this goal are equally desirable. Agents can either increase productivity or they can strategically manipulate accounting choices to affect earnings. The latter method need not come with any associated changes in productivity. Consequently, there is misstatement of the financial results and position. The calculus of earnings management is considered within the confines of agents' treatment of risk. Using an Agency Theory framework, this study examines the techniques used by agents to manage and manipulate earnings. The study initially tests the hypothesis whether earnings are really managed. For this purpose two manipulation indices were developed and based upon these indices the phenomenology earnings management was considered.     

Tests for the Validity of the Assumption that the Underlying Distribution of Life is Pareto

This article considers the problem of testing the validity of the assumption that the underlying distribution of life is Pareto. For complete and censored samples, the relationship between the Pareto and the exponential distributions could be of vital importance to test for the validity of this assumption. For grouped uncensored data the classical Pearson χ² test based on the multinomial model can be used. Attention is confined in this article to handle grouped data with withdrawals within intervals. Graphical as well as analytical procedures will be presented. Maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the Pareto distribution based on grouped data will be derived.