U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.     

Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach

This article presents the core methodological ideas and empirical assessments of an extended cohort-component approach (known as the “ProFamy model”), and applications to simultaneously project household composition, living arrangements, and population sizes–gender structures at the subnational level in the United States. Comparisons of projections from 1990 to 2000 using this approach with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC show that 68.0 %, 17.0 %, 11.2 %, and 3.8 % of the absolute percentage errors are <3.0 %, 3.0 % to 4.99 %, 5.0 % to 9.99 %, and ≥10.0 %, respectively. Another analysis compares average forecast errors between the extended cohort-component approach and the still widely used classic headship-rate method, by projecting number-of-bedrooms–specific housing demands from 1990 to 2000 and then comparing those projections with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. The results demonstrate that, compared with the extended cohort-component approach, the headship-rate method produces substantially more serious forecast errors because it cannot project households by size while the extended cohort-component approach projects detailed household sizes. We also present illustrative household and living arrangement projections for the five decades from 2000 to 2050, with medium-, small-, and large-family scenarios for each of the 50 states; Washington, DC; six counties of southern California; and the Minneapolis–St. Paul metropolitan area. Among many interesting numerical outcomes of household and living arrangement projections with medium, low, and high bounds, the aging of American households over the next few decades across all states/areas is particularly striking. Finally, the limitations of the present study and potential future lines of research are discussed.     

A simple method for projecting or estimating α and β: An extension of the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model

This paper proposes a simple method that analytically links the parameters and , which are not demographically interpretableand measurable in the Brass Relational Gompertz Fertility Model, with demographic measures of median age and interquartile range. We also extend the Brass model that deals only with age-specific fertility to age-parity-specific fertility, first marriage, divorce, remarriage, and leaving the parental home. The method has been successfully tested by fittings to 180 reliable observed demographic schedules in various countries and periods, and to nearly 10,000simulated schedules with various combinations of possible values (including the extremes) of and . Our proposed method that uses median age and interquartile range instead of and as input is useful in the population and family household projections. It releases the traditionalunrealistic assumption in population projections that the curve of the fertility schedule moves to the right or left in a parallel way. Instead, using our proposed method, one can assume that the demographic events would be delayed or advanced, while the curve becomes more spread or more concentrated, or, more specifically, assume that young people delay the events more than the older persons do, or vice versa. Our proposed method is also useful to formulate assumptions on future demographic trends for purposes of policy analysisand planning. It can be used to indirectly estimate demographic schedules when the detailed age-specific data are not currently available, which is useful for developing countries and sub-region studies in developed countries. A crucial point for a successful application of the method is that the standard schedule chosen can capture the general pattern of the demographic process in the population under study.     

近代以来中国社会主要矛盾的演化与习近平“新时代”的逻辑关系

近代以来中国社会主要矛盾是习近平“新时代”的昨天和前夜。近代中国社会的主要矛盾是习近平“新时代”前溯百年的历史状态,是黑暗的前夜;毛泽东、邓小平时代中国社会主要矛盾则是习近平“新时代”的昨天状态,与今日的“新时代”紧密相连,不可分割。习近平“新时代”是近代以来中国社会主要矛盾演化的必然逻辑,推动这一主要矛盾不断演化的是中国人民持续百年的不屈抗争、流血革命、艰苦创业、不懈奋斗。近代以来中国社会主要矛盾与习近平“新时代”共同构成中国社会一百多年来中华民族从屈辱、奋斗、站立、富裕到强盛的波澜壮阔的历史画卷。这一历史画卷还要继续向前展开,展示在世人面前的将是中华民族的伟大复兴,中国人民将为世界作出更大、更杰出的贡献。     

换热管弹性结构振动传递函数的建立

为了解决换热管振动的建模问题,提出了一种基于有限元分析的弹性振动传递函数建模方法。首先建立能准确 反映换热管动力学特性的有限元模型,然后根据输入参数和辨识算法类型的不同,分别从时域和频域进行传递函数建 模,其中时域辨识建模以PRBS信号的瞬态响应结果为辨识数据进行时域参数辨识,频域辨识建模以换热管的频响函数 为辨识数据进行频域参数辨识。将有限元分析结果与时域和频域内传递函数计算结果进行对比,发现误差较小。该方 法具有可行性和有效性。     

Forecast Households at the County Level: An Application of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component Method in Six Counties of Southern California, 2010 to 2040

Population Research and Policy Review - Policymakers and market analysts have long been interested in future trends of households. Among household projection methods, the ProFamy extended...     

A Multistate Life Table Analysis of Union Regimes in the United States: Trends and Racial Differentials, 1970–2002

We estimate trends and racial differentials in marriage, cohabitation, union formation and dissolution (union regimes) for the period 1970–2002 in the United States. These estimates are based on an innovative application of multistate life table analysis to pooled survey data. Our analysis demonstrates (1) a dramatic increase in the lifetime proportions of transitions from never-married, divorced or widowed to cohabiting; (2) a substantial decrease in the stability of cohabiting unions; (3) a dramatic increase in mean ages at cohabiting after divorce and widowhood; (4) a substantial decrease in direct transition from never-married to married; (5) a significant decrease in the overall lifetime proportion of ever marrying and re-marrying in the 1970s to 1980s but a relatively stable pattern in the 1990s to 2000–2002; and (6) a substantial decrease in the lifetime proportion of transition from cohabiting to marriage. We also present, for the first time, comparable evidence on differentials in union regimes between four racial groups.     

新时代高校大学生爱党教育的逻辑理路

当前，怎样对大学生进行爱党教育?要让大学生在对比中对中国共产党取得的伟大成就有感性认识，引发他们的理性思考:中国共产党取得骄人成就的深层次原因——不断学习，治本领恐慌；承认缺点，有错必改正；人民中心，决不徇私情；胸有大局，不拘局部利；看齐意识，不搞山头风；赶考心态，不贪图享乐；精神补钙，永远要革命。有了这些认识，大学生的爱党情怀就有了深厚的基础。爱党教育应避免简单说教，内容上注重科学性，避免刻板的模式化灌输；形式上注重艺术性，避免孤立的党化教育；过程中注重灵活性，避免单一的形式化说教。