The Changing Demography of America's Families

We use data from a variety of sources to describe recent dramatic changes in the composition, economic stability, and diversity of American families. The declining prevalence of early marriage, increasing level of marital dissolution, and growing tendency to never marry, especially among some racial and ethnic groups, reflect changes in the relative economic prospects of men and women and support the conclusion that marriage is becoming less valued as a source of economic stability. These developments also imply that relatively more children are born outside of marriage, spend at least part of their childhood in a single‐parent household, and endure multiple changes in family composition. Paralleling these trends have been sharp changes in the economic stability of families, characterized most notably by a growing importance of women's income and increasing economic inequality among American families.     

Trends in attitudes toward abortion: 1972-1976

Trends in attitudes toward abortion are examined over the 1972-1976 period. While an overall tendency of more liberal attitudes is noted, important differences over time are apparent by gender, education, occupational prestige, and religiosity.     

Joining up: Did military service in the early all volunteer era affect subsequent civilian income?

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth, we examine the long-term implications of military service for men’s income. We show strong variations in the effect of military service according to race and education. We do so while considering the effect of military service on the income trajectories of men and including a series of controls for selectivity. We find that while serving in the military, young men from disadvantaged backgrounds earn more than their civilian counterparts. Upon discharge, however, the income premium associated with military service tends to dissipate, and for White veterans with at least a high school degree, an income deficit results.     

Economic development and fertility: A methodological re-evaluation

Summary Several studies in recent years have investigated the relationship between economic development and fertility, using the methods of multiple and partial correlation. Results from these studies have been interpreted to show that economic development, while directly tending to increase fertility, also gives rise to factors which inhibit it, resulting in an eventual decrease in fertility with increasing development. The present study re-examines the methodology and empirical results upon which this explanation is based and finds little statistical or empirical support for such a model. Subsequent statistical re-examination of the data from one of these studies reveals that the major independent variables in the model are largely redundant, and that the model is untenable in that it seeks to establish patterns of interrelation between what appear to be redundant constructs. The isolation of additional statistically independent variables is suggested to improve the explanation of variance in fertility in terms of its social and economic correlates.     

Wages, earnings, and occupational status: did World War II veterans receive a premium?

Over 16 million men served during World War II (WWII), and we know that veterans obtained more education and earned higher incomes than did non-veterans and that these premiums were more substantial for Blacks and less educated men. However, we know very little about the reasons for such veteran premiums. Using several distinct, yet connected, theoretical traditions that have been used to link military service to subsequent outcomes—theories of the life course, the status attainment perspective, relatively new conceptualizations of social capital, economic theories of human capital, and theories of selectivity—we seek to redress this lack of understanding. We use survey data from the National Longitudinal Study of Mature Men (NLSMM) to examine the long-term effects of military service during WWII on occupational and income attainments. We find that the effects associated with being a veteran of WWII are modest and are mostly limited to less advantaged veterans, and can be largely explained by differences in human capital investment or selectivity. The one finding that cannot be explained by differences in family background, human capital investments, and selectivity is a higher hourly wage rate associated with being a Black veteran.     

What is applied demography?

Applied demography has recently gained recognition as an emergent specialization among practicing demographers. We argue that applied demography is intrinsically distinct from basic demography because it exhibits the value-orientation and empirical characteristics of a decision-making science while the latter exhibits the value-orientation and empirical hallmarks of a basic science. Distinguishing characteristics of applied demography are based on the context in which it places precision and explanatory power relative to time and resources as well as the fact its substantive problems are largely exogenously-defined, usually by customers. The substantive problems of basic demography, on the other hand, are largely endogenously-defined, usually by academic demographers. Moreover, basic demography is primarily concerned with offering convincing explanations of demographic phenomena and tends to view time and resources as barriers to surmount in order to maximize precision and explanatory power. This context is very different from the one in which applied demography is embedded, which views explanatory power and precision in terms of doing what is necessary to support practical decision-making while minimizing time and resources. We examine this conceptualization of applied demography in terms of the methods and materials that fall within its purview and discuss some important consequences, including research agendas and training programs. We conclude by posing several important but unanswered questions about the actual and potential scope of applied demography and discuss some of the implications inherent in these questions.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, 20 October 1995, Richmond, Virginia, USA.     

Veteran Status and Body Weight: A Longitudinal Fixed-Effects Approach

About 10–12 % of young men (and increasingly, women) have served a term in the military. Yet, we know relatively little about the consequences of military service for the lives of those who serve. In this article, we provide estimates of the relationship between men’s peacetime military service during the all-volunteer era (AVE) and body weight using longitudinal data on 6,304 men taken from the National Longitudinal Survey of 1979 (NLSY-79). Using fixed-effects estimators on up to 13 years of data and numerous controls for time-varying life-course characteristics linked to body weight, we find that veterans of active-duty military service have higher levels of BMI and obesity. We argue that eating habits learned during service, coupled with patterns of physical activity, lead to a situation whereby veterans making the transition to less active civilian lifestyles gain weight that is not lost over time.     

Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates

The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model's empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model's variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In one test, all nine years show a higher degree of accuracy, of which four are statistically significant. Several possible reasons are given for the increased accuracy shown by the transformed model. The transformation, termed the "rate-correlation" model, is recommended as a logical starting point in the examination of coefficient stability and spatial autocorrelation as well as a method for estimating small populations.     

Divorce,Race, and Military Service: More Than Equal Pay and Equal Opportunity

Several researchers have suggested that the persistently higher rate of divorce among Blacks may be due to hard‐to‐measure concepts such as culture or norms. To attack this problem, we use data from the NLSY‐79 to examine the risk of divorce among enlisted active‐duty military servicemen where economic differences and the negative effects of discrimination are minimized. Our results indicate that military service reduces the likelihood of marital dissolution among Blacks serving in the Army and that this finding is not likely the result of unobserved selectivity. We attribute the latter finding to the fact that the Army has a well‐defined career ladder for Blacks that fully integrates them into leadership positions providing role models and positive work environments that reduce stress associated with discrimination and promote stable marriages.     

Measuring change and continuity in parity distributions

Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980.