朱熹与白鹿洞书院的复兴(1179—1181)

淳熙六年(1179),南康军控制的地方秋雨没有如期到来,从高处的农田传来了干旱的报导。知军新安朱熹为视察水利设施陂塘来到了庐山,在东面山坡上,偶然看到了白鹿洞书院的废墟。他转身对随从悲伤地说:这座废墟自唐朝的李渤隐居以来就开始繁荣,一直到本朝,太宗皇帝还赐予监本九经,以供诸生研究学习……附近这些在50年前就已废坏的佛寺道观,斤斧之声相闻,已经修复原样,唯独这座儒家学馆莽为荆榛,怎不令人遗憾并深感羞愧呢?     

对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（下）

十四、概率上限和概率下限在理论和实际中有什么作用?　　由于具体的或认识上的概率的上、下限产生于不同的环境,短语概率“上限”和概率“下限”可以从不同的角度来解释。在格罗宁根,从20世纪70年代中期以来,就有一种对后验概率构造置信区间的传统[126,4]。在罗吉斯蒂回归中,即使对比例风险回归模型,也可得到类似的结果,见[70,17]。标准误和置信限加深了评估中涉及的统计不确定性的印象。除了这些统计不确定性外,还存在系统误差引起的不确定性:参数模型在某种程度上总是错误的。因此将精力集中在这些统计不确定性上多少是一种误导。然而在…     

对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（中）

四、是否应该把非参数和半参数表示法强加进似然方法的框架中?　　但尼尔·贝努利[21]曾预言似然方法拥有渐进有效、对于大多数参数问题行之有效的可计算性等优点。如果参数的数目与观测值的数目成比例地增长,这些优点就会逊色不少。结果的不一致性和识别问题(属于变量误差模型     

婚姻压缩和两性别线性人口模型

关于两性别模型的研究,是由一致性问题引起的。其著名的例子是由Kuczynski,R.R.(1932)给出的。他的研究表明,在1920～1923年间,法国女性人口的净再生产率(NRR)为0.98,而男性为1.19。这一一致性问题引起了其后的一系列研究。其中最基本的问题是如     

20世纪“成都大学”与国家命运的沉浮起落

本简要归纳了“成都大学”在20世纪近80年代变迁历程中的三起三落，分析了制约这些起落的时代背景，揭示了成都大学沉浮起落与国家发展变化的紧密关系。     

员工需要尊重——赢得员工支持的通途

如果雇员不配合的话,那么管理者最好的计划也将成为一纸空文。英国英希德商学院的两位管理学教授认为,要取得雇员的信任和支持,公平是关键。     

党的建设的一项根本建设

党的十六届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于加强党的执政能力建设的决定》,科学地总结了中国共产党执政半个多世纪以来的主要经验,在党的建设史上具有里程碑意义。该《决定》中有两个重要的论断,即“无产阶级夺取政权不容易,执掌好政权尤其是长期执掌好政权更不容易”和“党的执政地位不是与生俱来的,也不是一劳永逸的”,指出了加强党的执政能力建设的重要性和紧迫性。加强党的执政能力建设必须建立一个好的党中央领导核心,坚持理论的与时俱进和在意识形态领域的指导地位,制定一条正确的基本路线并贯彻执行,全面提高各级领导干部的素质和水平,保持党同人民群众的血肉联系。通过加强执政能力建设带动党的各方面建设,带动国家政权建设,进而带动整个社会主义现代化建设。     

The timing of maternity in the Netherlands

In this paper the timing of maternity is estimated by a hazard model. The novel aspect of this paper is that it is shown that wages and total household labor income have a significant effect on the timing of maternity. Both the wage rate of the woman and the wage rate of the husband have a negative effect on the timing of maternity. Total household labor income increases the probability of having a child at an earlier age. Calculated elasticities show that the timing of maternity is relatively elastic with respect to wage rates. However, the elasticities of the decision whether or not to have children altogether are much smaller. Women working in the labor market delay the timing of maternity compared to non-participating women. Attending school has the same effect. Until the age of 28 the maternity hazard increases with age, after that it decreases.We benefited from comments on previous drafts by Siv Gustafsson, Joop Hartog, Peter Kee, Herriette Maassen van den Brink, Eddie Mekkelholt, Joop Odink, Hessel Oosterbeek, Hans van Ophem, Gusta Renes, Andre Voskamp, two anonymous referees, and the Managing Editor of this Journal. This paper is a revised version of a paper presented at the third annual meeting of the European Society for Population Economics, Paris, June 1989. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Helping oneself by helping others: evaluation of a service credit banking demonstration

Between 1987 and 1990, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation funded six service credit banking demonstration programs among the elderly in which participants delivered services in return for credits, entitling them to later service. This evaluation of the demonstrations found that these six sites successfully attracted elders for the delivery of household support services to a relatively old, frail population with potentially limited social networks. Evidence on the significance of the "credit" in attracting volunteers was mixed, but the programs have attracted new volunteers, and have not substituted for other volunteer activities. Program development has entailed considerable staff investment in volunteer support; programs are better understood as community membership organizations than as mechanical exchanges.     

Woman cadres are women's friends

The All-China Women's Federation (WF) is a non-governmental organization of women and the highest leading body of the Women's Federations at all levels of the country. The WFS spare no efforts to do women good turns, work for their well-being and serve them wholeheartedly. The WFs are actively organizing women to learn to read and write and to acquire skills. The WFs play a role in protecting and education women, and in struggling for the safeguard of the legitimate rights of women and children. The WFs at all levels have been showing great concern for family planning. Finally, the WFs devote much attention to the training of women cadres, and to the improvement of their cultural level and working ability.