Multiple event times in the presence of informative censoring: modeling and analysis by copulas

Motivated by a breast cancer research program, this paper is concerned with the joint survivor function of multiple event times when their observations are subject to informative censoring caused by a terminating event. We formulate the correlation of the multiple event times together with the time to the terminating event by an Archimedean copula to account for the informative censoring. Adapting the widely used two-stage procedure under a copula model, we propose an easy-to-implement pseudo-likelihood based procedure for estimating the model parameters. The approach yields a new estimator for the marginal distribution of a single event time with semicompeting-risks data. We conduct both asymptotics and simulation studies to examine the proposed approach in consistency, efficiency, and robustness. Data from the breast cancer program are employed to illustrate this research.

     

Tests for time series of counts based on the probability-generating function

We propose testing procedures for the hypothesis that a given set of discrete observations may be formulated as a particular time series of counts with a specific conditional law. The new test statistics incorporate the empirical probability-generating function computed from the observations. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is included as well as real-data examples.     

腔内电光调制激光系统的混沌模拟

采用数值模拟的方法讨论了带反馈的腔內电光调制激光系统功率输出的分叉和混沌行为,得到了输出功率随控制参数变化的分叉图,和一些定量结果。     

张之洞实业教育观之我见

实业教育观是张之洞教育思想的重要组成部分 ,它是张之洞与外洋抗争思想的直接结果之一。它以创办实业学堂、派遣留学生及倡导理论与实践相结合的教学方法为主旨 ;以培养近代农、工、商业人才 ,推动经济发展为目的 ,在中国近代历史上影响较为深远。     

Spatial variation in soil inorganic nitrogen across an arid urban ecosystem

We explored variations in inorganic soil nitrogen (N) concentrations across metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, and the surrounding desert using a probability-based synoptic survey. Data were examined using spatial statistics on the entire region, as well as for the desert and urban sites separately. Concentrations of both NO₃-N and NH₄-N were markedly higher and more heterogeneous amongst urban compared to desert soils. Regional variation in soil NO₃-N concentration was best explained by latitude, land use history, population density, along with percent cover of impervious surfaces and lawn, whereas soil NH₄-N concentrations were related to only latitude and population density. Within the urban area, patterns in both soil NO₃-N and NH₄-N were best predicted by elevation, population density and type of irrigation in the surrounding neighborhood. Spatial autocorrelation of soil NO₃-N concentrations explained 49% of variation among desert sites but was absent between urban sites. We suggest that inorganic soil N concentrations are controlled by a number of ‘local’ or ‘neighborhood’ human-related drivers in the city, rather than factors related to an urban-rural gradient.     

科学家的精神动力与爱国主义

一、科学家献身国防的精神动力爱因斯坦曾在普朗克六十寿诞的庆祝会上指出有三种科学探索的动机:“在科学的庙堂里有许多房舍,住在里面的人真是各式各样,而引导他们到那里去的动机实在也各不相同。有许多人所以爱好科学,是因为科学给他们以超乎常人的智力上的快感,科学是他们自己的特殊娱乐,他们在这种娱乐中寻求生动活泼的经验和雄心壮志的满足;在这座庙堂里,另外还有许多人所以把他们的脑力产物奉献在祭台上,为的是纯粹功利的目的……对于这些人来说,只要有机会,人类活动的任何领域他们都会去干;他们究竟成为工程师,官吏,商人,还是科学家,…     

汉藏美术比较研究

本文主要比较分析了汉藏两民族美术创作诸方面的相同之处和不同之处。作者认为，梳理两者的长与短是为了二者互相学习，互相交流，取长补短，使各自的美术创作获得更大的发展。     

略论中国艺术的审美取向

悠久灿烂的华夏文明 ,孕育了中国艺术鲜明独特的审美取向 ,概括起来主要有 :自然的旨趣 ;简淡的追求 ;飘逸的气质 ;空灵的境界     

王夫之对义、利的层次性及相对性的分析

义利观问题是中国伦理思想史的核心问题之一，历代思想家都十分重视对它的研究。王夫之在总结、继承前哲义利思想的基础上，提出了自己的义利观，并对义利进行了层次性及相对性的分析，既继承了传统道义论的精华，又极大地丰富了中国古代伦理思想的内涵。