FISCAL READJUSTMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES: A NONLINEAR TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS

We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves forecast performance. ( JEL C32, C53, E62)     

HAS WAL‐MART BURIED MOM AND POP?: THE IMPACT OF WAL‐MART ON SELF‐EMPLOYMENT AND SMALL ESTABLISHMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper explores the widely accepted view that Wal‐Mart causes significant harm to the traditional, small “mom and pop” business sector of the U.S. economy. We present the first rigorous econometric investigation of this issue by examining the rate of self‐employment and the number of small employer establishments using both time series and cross‐sectional data. We also examine alternative measures and empirical techniques for robustness. Contrary to popular belief, our results suggest that the process of creative destruction unleashed by Wal‐Mart has had no statistically significant long‐run impact on the overall size and profitability of the small business sector in the United States. (JEL L81, D59, C21)     

Quality Assurance, Pre-Sentence Reports and the Probation Service

Correspondence to Dr Peter Raynor, Applied Social Studies, University of Wales, Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP. Summary During the months immediately preceding the implementation ofthe 1991 Criminal Justice Act the Home Office commissioned astudy of quality assurance and quality control procedures usedby probation services in their work on social inquiry reportsand in their preparation for the change to pre-sentence reports.This paper summarizes the results of that study, which includeda survey of current practice in probation services and the developmentof a quality control instrument for assessing the quality ofpre-sentence reports. It is emphasized that the views expressedin this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily thoseof the Home Office.     

Engineering education on production management. Different levels and degrees in five European countries: a comparison

The paper summarizes the results of the work-session ‘Education on Production Management’, organized during the Workshop and Summer School ‘Advanced Topics in Production Systems Design and Management’, held in Varenna (Lecco, Italy), from 1–4 June 1994. The organization of studies in the production management field in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Norway is outlined. A comparison between them shows a range of different solutions that must be understood to reach the goal of an effective exchange of production management people throughout the European Community.     

Media use and transnational political and civic participation: a case study of Mexicans in the USA

Although communication is largely understood as a prerequisite for transnational activity, little research explores exactly how transnational communities use media and what the implications of media use are for transnational civic and political participation. Research from communication studies suggests that media can affect civic and political participation in various, sometimes contradictory, ways. In an effort to merge literature from transnational and communication studies, in this study I focus on the case of Mexicans in the USA, offering secondary analyses of two datasets concerning their communication habits and civic and political participation in Mexico. Results suggest differential effects on participation based on preferences for certain media and pre‐existing attitudes.     

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY

The intergenerational elasticity of income is considered one of the best measures of the degree to which a society gives equal opportunity to its members. While much research has been devoted to measuring this reduced‐form parameter, less is known about its underlying structural determinants. Using a model with exogenous talent endowments, endogenous parental investment in children, and endogenous redistributive institutions, we identify the structural parameters that govern the intergenerational elasticity of income. The model clarifies how the interaction between private and collective decisions determines the equilibrium level of social mobility. Two societies with similar economic and biological fundamentals may have vastly different degrees of intergenerational mobility depending on their political institutions. We offer empirical evidence in line with the predictions of the model. We conclude that international comparisons of intergenerational elasticity of income are not particularly informative about fairness without taking into account differences in politico‐economic institutions. (JEL E24, J62, J68, P16)     

Transnational status and cosmopolitanism: are dual citizens and foreign residents cosmopolitan vanguards?

Empirically growing transnationalism and normatively demanded cosmopolitanism may be closely connected when considered as different elements of new forms of citizenship beyond the single nation‐state. Do individuals with either full (dual citizenship) or partial (foreign resident) transnational status exhibit more cosmopolitanism than mono citizens? This article decodes the multidimensional character of cosmopolitanism using major democratic theories – liberalism, republicanism, and communitarianism. Multivariate regression analyses of data from a survey among mono citizens, dual citizens and foreign residents in Switzerland reveal that a transnational status is associated with cosmopolitanism in a differentiated way. Dual citizens and especially foreign residents are more likely than mono citizens to exhibit liberal cosmopolitanism; but only dual citizens having full political rights and opportunities in two countries are more likely to exhibit republican cosmopolitanism and only foreign residents excluded from the political community of residence are more likely to exhibit communitarian cosmopolitanism. Each of them can thus be considered as vanguards in specific ways. Our study furthermore demonstrates the added value of disaggregating both cosmopolitanism and transnationalism.     

Gender Equality and Gender Differences: Parenting,Habitus, and Embodiment (The 2008 Porter Lecture)*

S'appuyant sur un projet de recherche d'une durée de quatre ans concernant des pères canadiens dispensateurs de soins de première ligne ainsi que sur deux projets récents sur la première année de soins prodigués au nourrisson, l'auteure attire l'attention sur plusieurs questions théoriques importantes pour l'étude de l'égalité des sexes et de la différence entre les sexes au sujet de l'éducation des enfants. Elle propose d'abord de transférer le centre d'intérêt, qui porte en ce moment sur les travaux domestiques, vers les responsabilités familiales et communautaires. Elle soutient ensuite que le terrain politique à la base de l'étude du maternage et du paternage exige de la clarté sur la façon dont les chercheurs interprètent l'interaction constante entre l'égalité et les différences. Finalement, elle défend l'idée voulant que les responsabilités parentales, étant donné qu'il y a eu certains changements au cours du temps, demeurent influencées par le genre parce qu'elles sont profondément enracinées dans l'habitus et dans la personnification dans des contextes spatiaux et temporels spécifiques. Drawing on a four‐year research project on Canadian primary caregiving fathers, as well two recent projects on the first year of parenting, this article highlights several theoretical and substantive issues in the study of gender equality and gender differences in parenting. First, I call for shifts from a focus on domestic tasks toward domestic and community‐based responsibilities. Second, I argue that the political terrain underpinning the study of mothering and fathering calls for clarity on how researchers interpret the constant interplay between equality and differences. Third, while there has been some change over time, parental responsibilities remain gendered because they are deeply rooted in habitus and embodiment across specific spatial and temporal contexts.     

PATERNITY DEFERMENTS AND THE TIMING OF BIRTHS: U.S. NATALITY DURING THE VIETNAM WAR

During the conflict in Vietnam, married men with dependents could obtain a deferment from the draft. In 1965, following President Johnson's Executive Order 11241 and a subsequent Selective Service System announcement, the particulars of this policy changed substantially in a way which provided strong incentives for childless American couples to conceive a first-born child. This study examines the effects of the intervention on the decision to start a family. In my empirical analysis, I use data from the Vital Statistics for the period 1963–1968 and employ a difference-in-differences methodology. The estimated magnitude of the effect is substantial . ( JEL J18)